In a March Madness Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament game, the 4-seed UCLA Bruins will face off with the 8-seed North Carolina Tar Heels in the East Region. Let’s take a look at the top college basketball betting odds, picks, bracketology, betting trends and KenPom Rankings, then give our UCLA vs North Carolina prediction for the game today.
UCLA vs North Carolina | March Madness Sweet 16
2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
No. 4 UCLA Bruins (27-7) vs. No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (26-9)
Date: Friday, March 25, 2022
Time: 9:39 PM EST
Venue: Wells Fargo Center — Philadelphia, PA
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UCLA vs North Carolina College Basketball Betting Picks and Odds
Moneyline: UCLA: (+120) | UNC: (-140)
Point Spread: UCLA: -2.5 (-110) | UNC: +2.5 (-110)
Total: 141.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
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KenPom Rankings | Bracketology
KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com
UCLA vs North Carolina College Basketball Betting Trends
- Bruins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.
- The UNDER is 5-1 in the Bruins’ last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Bruins’ last six games following a straight up win.
- Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
- The total has gone OVER in each of the Tar Heels’ last four neutral site games as an underdog.
- The OVER is 4-0 in the Tar Heels’ last four NCAA Tournament games.
UCLA vs North Carolina Prediction | March Madness Sweet 16 Picks
Although it took overtime to do so in the second game, North Carolina managed to surpass the 90-point threshold in both opening weekend games. The Tar Heels’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now. That being said, one has to assume that some natural regression is imminent in a Sweet 16 matchup against UCLA.
Speaking of that matchup, the Bruins also figure to be a factor in slowing down the high-flying UNC offense. What many continue to overlook with Mick Cronin’s squad is their high level of execution on the defensive end. UCLA ranks 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the season according to KenPom. The Bruins have allowed only 91.1 points per 100 possessions.
The fact that both North Carolina and UCLA rank among the top-20 most efficient offenses might lead some to believe that betting the total over is the preferred choice. However, bettors must also account for what amounts to a stark contrast in average pace between the teams. While the Tar Heels rank 31st in adjusted tempo, the Bruins are all the way down at 261st.
When it comes to handicapping this total, the experience edge of UCLA also comes into play. When deciding which team’s pace and style of play will win out, one has to put some stock in the side that went all the way to the Final Four a year ago. Furthermore, the Bruins have been the much more consistent team over the lifespan of this current season.
Our college basketball betting UCLA vs North Carolina prediction tonight will be UNDER 141.5 at BetUS.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives UCLA a 71.6% chance to win.