Notre Dame vs South Carolina Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Gator Bowl

For the first time since 1984, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are set to tangle with the South Carolina Gamecocks on Friday in what will be the 76th installment of the Gator Bowl. It has also been quite some time since either school last played in the Jacksonville-based bowl game. This will be the Irish’s first appearance since 2003 and the Gamecocks’ first since all the way back in 1987. The Notre Dame vs South Carolina odds and college football betting picks give an edge to the FBS Independent ahead of this highly-anticipated matchup.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Notre Dame vs South Carolina prediction for the Gator Bowl matchup.

Notre Dame vs South Carolina Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Gator Bowl
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4, 4-4 SEC)
Date: Friday, December 30, 2022
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: TIAA Bank Field — Jacksonville, FL
Coverage: ESPN

Marcus Freeman’s first year as head coach in South Bend didn’t exactly start off as planned. After losing a close game to Ohio State in the season-opener, Notre Dame fans went into panic mode the following week when the Irish were upset by Marshall. Notre Dame finally got its first win of the year the following week over California and was largely able to settle in from there. The Irish were able to win eight of nine and climbed back into the national rankings prior to ending the regular season with a loss to rival USC.

Many felt that South Carolina was capable of making some noise in the SEC. The Gamecocks failed to do so early on, losing each of their first two conference games by lopsided margins. Wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M inspired confidence, but upon breaking into the AP Top 25 for the first time in years, Carolina lost to Missouri at home. Shane Beamer’s team took the college football world by storm late in the year with an upset win over Tennessee and a road victory over in-state rival Clemson.

Notre Dame vs South Carolina College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Notre Dame vs South Carolina can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: ND: (-180) | SC: (+160)
Point Spread: ND: -4 (-111) | SC: +4 (-109)
Total: 51 — Over: (-109) | Under: (-111)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Gator Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders

Notre Dame vs South Carolina College Football Betting Trends

• Fighting Irish are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games when playing as a betting favorite of seven points or less.
• The OVER is 6-0 in the Fighting Irish’s last six games overall.
• The OVER is 4-0 in the Fighting Irish’s last four games following an ATS loss.
• Gamecocks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.
• The OVER is 5-1 in the Gamecocks’ last six games after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game.
• Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.
• Each of the Fighting Irish’s last five games against SEC opponents has stayed UNDER the total.

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Notre Dame vs South Carolina Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

After getting knocked out of the second game of the season with a shoulder injury, Tyler Buchner is in line to start for Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl. As such, he will be coming back much earlier than initial prognostications anticipated.

Of course, Buchner will also be starting somewhat by default. After starting the final ten games of the regular season, Drew Pyne departed for Arizona State via the college football transfer portal. Overall, the change at quarterback has had little impact on the Notre Dame vs South Carolina odds. In reality, Buchner’s return is just part of what figures to be a fascinating matchup on that side of the ball.

The Fighting Irish boast one of the best offensive lines in the country and figure to have an advantage over Carolina in the trenches. That said, Notre Dame was expected to be able to run the ball with relative ease on a number of occasions this season but wasn’t always successful in doing so on game day.

With star tight end Michael Mayer opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft, Buchner will have little in terms of reliable pass-catchers. This will only increase the likelihood of Notre Dame pounding the ball on the ground against a Gamecocks defense that has ceded nearly 200 rushing yards per game. Successfully implementing this strategy will also enable the Irish to keep the ball away from Spencer Rattler and a Carolina offense that finished the regular season with a flourish.

It should also be noted that the South Carolina offense will look quite a bit different from a personnel standpoint in the Gator Bowl. Leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd and tight end Jaheim Bell both entered the transfer portal. Wideout Josh Vann will miss the game with a knee injury and one of the Gamecocks’ starting tackles opted out to prep for the draft. Rattler will have leading receiver Juice Wells at his disposal, but it may not be enough against a Notre Dame defense that remains largely intact.

NOTRE DAME COVERS will be our official college football betting Notre Dame vs South Carolina prediction for the Gator Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Notre Dame a 67.5% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Notre Dame -4 (-111 at BetOnline Sportsbook)