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Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Odds, Trends and MLB Betting Preview

Baseball is back and better than ever this season. Opening Week continues on Tuesday with 14 MLB games on the schedule. One game that will certainly be in the national spotlight is a matchup between NL East Division rivals in the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. This marks the middle game of this three-game series between the teams and the second of 19 head-to-head meetings they’ll have this season. The MLB betting oddsmakers have dubbed the road team as favorites ahead of this Mets vs Phillies encounter.

Mets vs Phillies Game Info

New York Mets (0-1, 0-1 Away) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4-0, 4-0 Home)
Tuesday, Apr. 6, 2021
Start Time:
7:05 p.m. ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park — Philadelphia, PA
Coverage: ESPN
Starting Pitchers: NYM: (Marcus Stroman, 0-0) | PHI: (Chase Anderson, 0-0)

Bryce Harper MLB betting Mets vs Phillies Prediction
Credit: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images

Mets vs Phillies Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook

Moneyline: NYM: (-127) | PHI: (+107)
Run Line: NYM: -1.5 (+125) | PHI: +1.5 (-145)
Total: 9 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Mets vs Phillies MLB Betting Overview

Mets Outlook

The Mets had to wait until Monday to get their 2021 season started after their opening series against the Washington Nationals was postponed. Even with NL Cy Young Award favorite Jacob deGrom on the mound, New York could not hand the Phillies their first loss in the series opener. deGrom was spectacular over six shutout innings, but the Mets bullpen faltered, surrendering five runs in the 8th inning in the eventual 5-3 loss. Bullpen woes have been a common theme for the Mets in recent years, and it wasn’t exactly a mistake-free debut for new manager Luis Rojas. Whether or not this area can be fixed will be crucial going forward.

Overall, expectations are high for the Mets entering the 2021 campaign. New York was in the headlines throughout the MLB betting offseason for both a sale of the team and a blockbuster trade that brought star shortstop Francisco Lindor to the Big Apple. Lindor is the new face of a potent lineup that also includes Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto. The Mets also signed defensive-minded Kevin Pillar to roam the outfield in center. All-Star Marcus Stroman will make his first start since the 2019 season tonight for the Mets.

Phillies Outlook

No team has started the MLB betting season hotter than the Phillies. Other than the Nationals, who are yet to play a game, Philadelphia is the only team in baseball yet to suffer a loss. They came out strong with a sweep of the Atlanta Braves in the opening series and followed it up with an opportunistic win over the Mets in the first game of this series last night. Many considered the Phillies to be a step behind the Braves, Mets and Nationals in the NL East race this season. It’s very early, but the returns have been promising for Joe Girardi’s squad. 

Chase Anderson will draw the start for the Phillies tonight as the team’s fifth starter in the rotation. After being shut down by deGrom last night, Philadelphia’s bats will look to be better this evening. There’s certainly enough talent in this lineup. Bryce Harper is the face of the team, but the supporting cast is deep as well. Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura and Didi Gregorious are all capable of delivering on any given night. 

  • Mets are 1-5 in their last six Tuesday games.
  • Phillies are 5-0 in their last five games against NL East opponents.
  • Phillies are 5-1 in their last six games as home underdogs.
  • The Mets are just 4-12 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings against the Phillies in Philadelphia.
  • The total has gone over in five of the last six head-to-head meetings between the Mets and Phillies.

Mets vs Phillies Stats

  • New York is averaging 3.00 runs per game (RPG) this season (Tied for No. 24 in MLB)
  • New York is surrendering 5.00 RPG on the season (Tied for No. 17 in MLB)
  • Philadelphia is averaging 3.50 RPG this season (No. 22 in MLB)
  • Philadelphia is surrendering 1.50 RPG (No. 1 in MLB)

Mets vs Phillies Weather Report

According to

Status: Partly Cloudy
Temperature: 64℉
Humidity: 20%
Precipitation: 0%
Wind: 6 MPH (left to right)

Mets vs Phillies Prediction

This game presents an interesting pitching matchup thanks to the postponement of the Mets’ first series. You wouldn’t typically see a team’s No. 2 starter up against a No. 5 this early into the season, but that is exactly what we see in this MLB betting matchup. There is a bit of an unknown with Marcus Stroman coming into tonight’s game given that he hasn’t pitched since 2019. On top of that, the Mets will need to put the late-game woes of yesterday’s loss behind them.

With the absence of any weather interference, I am leaning towards playing over nine total runs in this game. Stroman had a 5.40 ERA with 17 hits allowed in 10 innings against the Phillies in 2019. Philadelphia has been winning despite not scoring much over the first four games. I expect the bats to get going sooner than later. On the other side, Chase Anderson was far from impressive as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays last season, posting a 7.22 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Both teams should be able to produce some offense tonight. This is a divisional series that has trended to the over in recent meetings as well.

Pick: Over 9 Total Runs (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

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