In the final game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, we have a fantastic Florida vs Houston matchup to decide who takes home this year’s national championship. Florida got here thanks to more heroics by star guard Walter Clayton Jr., while Houston got here thanks to one of the most unbelievable comebacks in NCAA history over the Duke Blue Devils.
Below, we will preview this NCAA championship college basketball game, giving the Florida vs Houston overview, trends and our expert pick! Which school will win and keep their hopes of winning the championship trophy alive?
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Florida vs Houston Prediction and Championship Expert Picks
2025 NCAA Tournament
No. 1 Florida Gators (35-4) vs. No. 1 Houston Cougars (35-4)
Date: Monday, April 7, 2025
Time: 8:50 PM EST
Venue: Alamodome — San Antonio, TX
Coverage: CBS
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Florida vs Houston Championship Odds
All college basketball betting odds for Florida vs Houston can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: FLA: (-115) | HOU: (-104)
Point Spread: FLA: -1.5 (-105) | HOU: +1.5 (-115)
Total: 141.5 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-110)
KenPom Rankings | Bracketology
KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com
| Team | Rk | AdjO | AdjD | AdjT |
| Florida | 3 | 128.8 (2) | 92.5 (9) | 69.9 (59) |
| Houston | 2 | 124.1 (10) | 87.3 (1) | 61.7 (360) |
Florida vs Houston College Basketball Trends
- Florida has scored 77 points or more in each of their last five games.
- Houston allows just 72 points per game over their last five games.
- Florida is 21-0 in non-conference play this season.
- Houston is 16-3 in non-conference play this season.
- Florida is 6-2 in NCAA Tournament games since 2020.
- Houston is 16-4 in NCAA Tournament games since 2020.
Florida vs Houston Prediction | Championship Expert Picks
NCAA basketball fans have not been treated to a run like the one Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. has been on for quite some time. Clayton was a major part in Florida’s late comebacks against UConn, Texas Tech and Auburn. To say he’s been the savior for the Gators would be an understatement. If Florida needs a big shot, Clayton is the one hitting it. Clayton has dropped 30+ points in each of the last two games and is averaging 24.6 points per game in the NCAA Tournament while shooting over 48% from three-point range.
The biggest issue with Florida lately has been what was their biggest strength in the regular season which is the play of their bigs. Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu combined for over 16 points per game in the regular season. Over the last two games, the pair have combined for just 15 points. Against Houston, they will need much better play out of their bigs. For as good as Clayton has been, he’s had to be nothing short of incredible just to get them to the Final Four. If the bigs don’t step up, Clayton would be asked to take over again, which is far from a guarantee.
As someone who had their bracket predicated on Duke winning it all, their Final Four loss to Houston hurt. As someone who is a fan of the sport and loves what Kelvin Sampson has done at Houston, it was one of the greatest games in recent memory. Simply put, the Houston Cougars do not give up and play their suffocating defense until the clock hits zero.
The problem with defending the Cougars is that they can beat you in so many different ways. Guard LJ Cryer has already won a championship with Baylor back in 2021 and is as effective as ever this year, averaging over 15 points per game. Junior guard Milos Uzan has been mostly quiet in the tournament but erupted for 22 points against Purdue, including the game-winning layup with under two seconds left.
As for the bigs, fifth-year senior J’Wan Roberts is wise beyond his years and has been a staple of the Cougars over the last few years. He has 20 NCAA Tournament games under his belt and plays a smart brand of basketball while also being a force defensively. While forwards Ja’Vier Francis and Joseph Tugler don’t score a ton of points, they play suffocating defense and are smart players who can play key minutes for this team.
This will be a closely contested game, but it will come down to the play of Florida’s bigs. With Houston’s defense and multiple ways they can attack on offense, if Condon and Chinyelu play anything like they have over the past two games, the Gators will be in big trouble.
For our Florida vs Houston prediction, we are picking the Houston Cougars to win and move on in the NCAA Tournament.
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