An NFL season unlike any other is set to culminate on Sunday night with Super Bowl LV. The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will battle for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy and declare themselves Super Bowl champions. Both sides have the chance to make history in this Chiefs vs Buccaneers Super Bowl LV matchup. The Chiefs are NFL betting favorites for the game and will be vying to become the first back-to-back champs since 2004-05. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers will look to become the first NFL team to win a championship on their home field.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and predictions for the Chiefs vs Buccaneers Super Bowl on Sunday night.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | Chiefs vs Buccaneers
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Game Info
Kansas City Chiefs (16-2, 8-0 Away) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5, 5-3 Home)
Date: Sunday, Feb. 7, 2021
Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
Chiefs vs Buccaneers NFL Odds + NFL Picks
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Moneyline: KC: (-155) | TB: (+135)
Spread: KC: -3 (-110) | TB: +3 (-110)
Total: 56 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: KC: (60% of tickets; 67% money) | TB: (40% tickets; 33% money)
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Super Bowl LV Overview
If the NFL’s goal was to get the two best teams in the Super Bowl, it’s hard to argue against the matchup we have this year. The Chiefs are of course the reigning champions, back to defend the throne they claimed in Super Bowl LIV last season. Kansas City only lost two games all season, and one of those came in Week 17 when they rested several starters. The Chiefs enjoyed a first round playoff bye before getting past the Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round despite being without star quarterback Patrick Mahomes for much of the second half. They then destroyed the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game to return to the Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t even win the NFC South Division, entering the NFC postseason as a Wild Card. That meant that the road would be difficult, but the Bucs passed navigated it to perfection. After taking out Washington in the Wild Card Round, Tampa Bay would go on to knock off the NFC’s top two seeds in the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers in each of the next two weeks to reach the Super Bowl. Any team that successfully navigates that trifecta of games (all on the road at that) deserves some recognition.
Super Bowl LV will actually be the second Chiefs vs Buccaneers matchup this season. The two teams met in Tampa back in Week 12 of the regular season, with Kansas City winning 27-24. The Chiefs got up big in that game before the Buccaneers rallied down the stretch to make things interesting. Will the Super Bowl follow a similar game script?
At this point, there’s a real case to be made that Andy Reid is to offensive coaching what Bill Belichick is to defensive coaching. Literally no one has been able to stop the Chiefs freight train offense over a full four quarters all season long. Patrick Mahomes is the new face of the NFL and he’s only getting started. At age 25, Mahomes will have the chance to win his second Super Bowl title on Sunday. Even crazier is the fact that he would do so before losing 10 games as an NFL starting quarterback.
Of course, football is a team sport. In heaping praise on Mahomes, one cannot overlook the bevy of weapons that surround him in this juggernaut offense. Speedster wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a big play waiting to happen. The Buccaneers can certainly attest to this after Hill lit them up for 256 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season meeting between the teams. When it’s not Hill making big plays, it’s almost always tight end Travis Kelce. Add in the supporting cast of Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle and you are looking at perhaps the best passing attack in NFL history. It figures to be tough sledding for the Chiefs run game in this one. With that said, the backfield trio of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams and Le’Veon Bell is too good to not play a role in Super Bowl LV.
It’s impossible to ignore the Chiefs’ offensive brilliance. On the flip side, Kansas City’s defense is one of the most overlooked and underrated units in the NFL. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best out there at his position. He also knows a thing or two about facing Tom Brady in the Super Bowl after beating him in Super Bowl XLII while at the helm of the New York Giants defense. Spagnuolo’s defense in Kansas City is littered with playmakers. None are more vital to the various schemes and coverages the Chiefs run than safety Tyrann Mathieu. Up front, Frank Clark and Chris Jones spearhead a pass rush that figures to be critical on Sunday. If history is any indication, generating pressure is the best way to beat Brady.
This marks the Buccaneers’ second appearance in the Super Bowl, and they’ll look to make it two-for-two with another win. Even though the NFL made the decision to cap the fan attendance for the game, it’s still pretty wild to know that Super Bowl LV is a home game for Tampa Bay. Many were skeptical about the marriage of head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady, but they’ve certainly proven the doubters wrong in Year One of working together. It wasn’t always picture-perfect, but the Buccaneers seemed to hit their stride offensively down the stretch of the season. Both Arians and Brady certainly aren’t lacking in experience. This will be Brady’s tenth Super Bowl appearance while Arians joins Andy Reid in becoming the oldest pair of Super Bowl head coaches in NFL history.
After signing Brady, Tampa Bay addressed the glaring offensive line issues from last season by drafting tackle Tristan Wirfs in the first round to protect the blindside. Stable blocking up front has enabled the 43-year-old QB to distribute the ball all over the field. From mainstay Bucs receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to tight end and former New England Patriots teammate Rob Gronkowski, Brady has had different playmakers step up in each game. Tampa Bay also will welcome back deep threat Antonio Brown after he missed the NFC Championship Game with a knee injury. And who can forget about fellow speedster Scotty Miller? While both halves of the Buccaneers’ backfield tandem of Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette have battled injuries at various points this season, both enter Super Bowl LV on the healthy side and ready to contribute.
Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has the unenviable assignment of finding a way to slow down the Chiefs offense. Tampa has been the league’s top run defense all season long, so the focus shifts directly to containing Patrick Mahomes and the aerial attack. Bowles is known for blitzing, but the Bucs have to be hoping to get home rushing four in this one, especially considering the injuries that the Chiefs are dealing with along their offensive line. Pass rushers Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul will be tasked with leading the charge. The Buccaneers are dealing with injuries of their own at the safety position, with neither Antoine Winfield Jr. nor Jordan Whitehead at 100%. It’s also a near certainty that Sean Murphy-Bunting won’t be able to cover Tyreek Hill one-on-one in the slot.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers NFL Betting Trends
- Chiefs 2020-21 NFL Betting Trends: 8-10 ATS; 9-9 to the Over
- Buccaneers 2020-21 NFL Betting Trends: 11-8 ATS; 11-8 to the Over
- The Chiefs are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
- The Chiefs are 7-0 SU but only 3-4 ATS as road favorites this season.
- The Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
- The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
- The Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 27-24 in Tampa Bay Week 12 of the regular season.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Stats
- Kansas City is averaging 29.6 points per game (PPG) this season (Tied for No. 4 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is surrendering 22.4 PPG this season (No. 10 in the NFL).
- Tampa Bay is averaging 30.7 PPG this season (No. 2 in the NFL).
- Tampa Bay is surrendering 22.3 PPG this season (Tied for No. 8 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is averaging 418.3 yards per game (YPG) this season (No. 1 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is averaging 305.2 passing YPG and 113.1 rushing YPG this season (Nos. 1 and 16 in the NFL, respectively).
- Tampa Bay is averaging 385.2 yards per game (YPG) this season (No. 5 in the NFL).
- Tampa Bay is averaging 287.1 passing YPG and 98.1 rushing YPG this season (Nos. 2 and 27 in the NFL, respectively).
- Kansas City is surrendering 355.8 YPG this season (No. 15 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is surrendering 233.8 passing YPG and 121.9 rushing YPG this season (Nos. 13 and 19 in the NFL, respectively).
- Tampa Bay is surrendering 330.7 YPG this season (No. 8 in the NFL).
- Tampa Bay is surrendering 249.1 passing YPG and 81.4 rushing YPG this season (Nos. 21 and 1 in the NFL, respectively).
Super Bowl LV Betting Trends
- All-time, Super Bowl betting favorites are 34-19 SU but just 25-25-3 ATS.
- NFL betting underdogs are 13-6 ATS in the last 18 Super Bowls (9-4 in the last 13).
- Outright Super Bowl winners are 45-6-3 ATS in the previous 54 Super Bowls.
- In the last 24 Super Bowl matchups between unequal playoff seeds, the team that is the higher playoff seed is just 2-14-2 ATS.
- The first 54 Super Bowls have been an even 27-27 split between the AFC and NFC, but the NFC does have a 27-24-3 all-time ATS advantage.
- AFC teams are 5-2 both SU and ATS in the last seven Super Bowls.
- NFL betting underdogs of six points or less have never covered a Super Bowl point spread without winning the game outright.
- In the 53 Super Bowls that have had totals wagering, the over has gone 27-25-1.
- The under is 8-3 in the last 11 Super Bowls with a total greater than 50 points.
- In the 17 Super Bowls in which both teams scored 20 or more points, 14 have gone over the total.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Super Bowl Prop Bets
If you’re tuning into the Super Bowl and don’t have action on a single prop bet, what are you doing with your life? They don’t call Super Bowl Sunday the unofficial sports betting holiday for nothing. For those in search of an edge on the Super Bowl props big board, the video below is a must-watch. FlurrySports betting mastermind Zach Brunner breaks down his favorite plays for the big game.
In addition to the video, be sure to browse FlurrySports’ extensive written coverage of the Super Bowl prop bets for all the analysis and insights you can handle. Our coverage includes the five best prop bets to place, and betting analysis for the coin toss and national anthem. We have coverage of the prop bets for the halftime show starring The Weeknd, as well as various cross-sport props that pair the Super Bowl with other games and events throughout the weekend. We even have a can’t-miss article that highlights some of the craziest Super Bowl prop bets you can place!
Monkey Knife Fight Super Bowl Props | Chiefs vs Buccaneers
Now for those who are located in states where sports betting is not yet legal, you really should check out Monkey Knife Fight for some Super Bowl Sunday fun. Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making picks on MKF. There are no annoying salary caps to worry about.
The list of Super Bowl LV prop offerings available on Monkey Knife Fight is never-ending in length. FlurrySports’ Trevor Land broke down several of the best Monkey Knife Fight plays in a separate article that I highly recommend you check out. In addition to those picks, here is a Chiefs vs Buccaneers MKF prop that I have my eye on.
If the high Super Bowl betting total is any indication, we are in store for an offensive showcase on Sunday. I need not dive further into all of the talent that litters both the Chiefs’ and Buccaneers’ offenses. In this Touchdown Dance prop, we simply need to pick three players to combine to exceed a chosen goal, in this case, 2.5 total TDs. The selections of Chiefs’ pass-catchers Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill speak for themselves.
My wild card choice to pair with them is Buccaneers’ running back Ronald Jones. Kansas City was among the worst in the NFL in run defense efficiency this season. I have to believe that the Bucs will want to establish a presence on the ground early in the game in an effort to both wear down the Chiefs’ defensive front and keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes. In goal-to-go and short-yardage situations, Jones will be on the field over backfield mate Leonard Fournette. It may come in the not-so-sexy form of a one-yard plunge, but I like Jones’ odds of reaching paydirt at some point in the game.
Correctly picking players to exceed the goal of 2.5 touchdowns would win you 2.5x your buy-in amount.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Super Bowl Prediction
And now, for the moment of truth: making my official Super Bowl LV prediction. While the “you can’t bet against Tom Brady” narrative has been populating Twitter and the NFL betting community in recent weeks, I actually have a completely different opinion. You can in fact bet against Brady, especially when he’s going up against a dominant team in the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. That’s the real team I’d rather not bet against in their quest to repeat.
Respect the Defenses
In looking at the Chiefs vs Buccaneers Super Bowl, I’m leaning towards a lower-scoring affair than most. In a lot of ways, the matchup feels somewhat similar to last year’s Chiefs-49ers battle in Super Bowl LIV. The common denominator, of course, is Kansas City. Like San Francisco last year, the Bucs bring a formidable defense to the table. Todd Bowles is bound to have a plan to throw the Chiefs’ attack out of rhythm, but I expect the same from Steve Spagnuolo and the Kansas City defense in return. Points will be scored, but I don’t think it will be quite as many as most are expecting. The high total enables this game to finish with a similar score to last year’s Super Bowl (31-20) while still staying under the total.
Impact of Futures Liability on Super Bowl Betting Odds
One key bookmaker note to keep in mind here is that the three-point spread might not be entirely indicative of the gap between the Chiefs and Buccaneers. This is due to a hefty amount of liability on the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl futures book that sportsbooks accrued before and during the season. As a result, the oddsmakers set the Super Bowl point spread in a way that best protects them from this liability while also being as close to the true line.
In terms of playing a side, I expect that both offenses will take a few series to hit their stride which will keep the game close through much of the first half. When things do heat up, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will prove themselves to be superior to Brady and the Buccaneers. With this in mind, I’m game to lay a mere field goal with the Chiefs. The best straight value bet though is the Kansas City moneyline. With public bettors pounding the plus-money price on the Bucs, Chiefs backers should wait as long as possible for the best price before betting on an inevitable Chiefs outright victory.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 24
Betting Picks: Chiefs moneyline (-155), Chiefs -3 (-110) and Under 56 (-110) at Bovada Sportsbook