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Super Bowl Coin Toss Betting Odds, Trends and Analysis

Heads or Tails? Out of the hundreds of Super Bowl prop bets available for the NFL betting public to wager on, none are as straight forward as the pregame coin toss. The literal 50-50 odds of the Super Bowl coin toss landing on either heads or tails make it a difficult prop to handicap in terms of finding an edge. Nonetheless, the simplicity combined with the instant gratification result makes it one of the most popular prop wagers among the betting public on an annual basis.

For bettors interested in having Super Bowl coin toss betting action for this year’s Chiefs vs Buccaneers matchup, you’ve come to the right spot. The following contains the official coin toss betting odds, betting trends, a look at this year’s official Super Bowl coin and analysis to try and help you pick the winning side.

Super Bowl coin toss betting trends
Credit: Greg Pallone/Spectrum News

Super Bowl Coin Toss Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of MyBookie Sportsbook

Result of Coin Toss: Heads (-105) | Tails (-105)
Will the Team that Calls the Coin Toss Be Correct: Yes: (-105) | No (-105)
Will the Team that Wins the Coin Toss Win the Game: Yes: (-110) | No: (-110)

Super Bowl Coin Toss History

Last year saw TAILS increase its all-time lead over HEADS in all-time results. In the 54 previous Super Bowls, TAILS now owns a 29-25 advantage. Last year also extended a recent run of TAILS dominance in the Super Bowl coin toss. The “backside” of the coin has now come up in six of the last seven years. Prior to this most recent stretch, HEADS had won six out of seven flips.

While TAILS may enjoy the all-time advantage, it’s certainly a slim lead at that. 53.7%. This slim margin would suggest that the probability of the Super Bowl coin toss is indeed 50-50 over the long haul.

Team-Specific Super Bowl Coin Toss History

Winning the coin toss has not translated into winning the Super Bowl itself in the 54-year history of the big game. The San Francisco 49ers won last year’s coin flip but failed to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. All told, only 24 teams (44.4%) who won their respective Super Bowl coin toss have gone on to win the game itself. Interestingly enough, of those 24 occurrences, 12 had a coin toss result of HEADS and 12 TAILS. Go figure!

Let’s take a look at the previous Super Bowl coin toss history for this year’s participating teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Chiefs Coin Toss History

The Chiefs won their second Super Bowl title last season. With that said, Kansas City remained winless (0-3) in Super Bowl coin tosses after losing last year’s flip in Super Bowl LIV. The TAILS that came up last year was the second in Kansas City’s three Super Bowl appearances, joining a TAILS result from Super Bowl IV. The only HEADS to come up in a Super Bowl featuring the Chiefs came all the way back in Super Bowl I. 

Buccaneers Coin Toss History

It’s a short coin toss history for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay was victorious in their only prior appearance, with TAILS facing skyward on the Super Bowl XXXVII flip. The Bucs may have a short list of Super Bowl appearances, but their quarterback, Tom Brady, certainly doesn’t. Super Bowl LV will be Brady’s tenth appearance in the big game after reaching the Super Bowl nine times with the New England Patriots. Interestingly enough, Brady and the Patriots only won two of those nine coin tosses. TAILS also has been the winning side in six of Brady’s nine previous Super Bowls.

Heads or Tails: What’s the Call?

Historical trends, data and results from prior Super Bowl coin flips are great and all, but how should one go about betting this year’s toss? There have actually been experiments done on coin toss procedures and how they might correlate with results. One study which was overseen by a math and stats professor at Stanford University yielded some particularly interesting findings.

According to Dr. Persi Diaconis, the side of the coin facing up when flipped actually has a quantifiable advantage. Diaconis and his research team proposed that the true odds of a coin toss are actually closer to 51-49 in favor of the side facing up when the coin is thrown into the air than they are to being 50-50. Do with this information what you will. For the record though, last year’s Super Bowl coin did in fact have TAILS facing up when it was tossed!

One other tidbit of information that bettors might find useful relates to this year’s ceremonial coin. Rumor has it that the HEADS face of the Super Bowl LV coin is just a touch heavier than TAILS. Combine that information with any number of gravitational force laws and other formulas and one can conclude that this slight weight differential would favor a TAILS victory.

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