Forecasting fantasy football results is very similar to forecasting the weather, which I have been doing for over 30 years. There is always a range of outcomes possible in fantasy football forecasting, just like in weather forecasting. For a longer explanation of our Range of Outcomes Theory for fantasy football, CLICK HERE. List of Data Needed I have come up with a simple formula to follow for projecting a player’s value. I will give you the list without going into detail on why these factors were chosen and others omitted… Last three years of rankings Significant roster changes, plus or…
Author: Dennis Michelsen
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Forecasting fantasy football results is very similar to forecasting the weather, which I have been doing for over 30 years. In weather forecasting, you come up with the most likely conclusion for where the model guidance, surface observations, gridded data, satellite pictures, radar output, atmospheric soundings and other assorted data is guiding you. But you also know which direction the forecast is most likely to fall apart if it fails to live up to your expectations. There is always a range of outcomes possible in fantasy football forecasting, just like in weather forecasting. Recency Bias It makes sense to have…
There are so many draft strategies that claim to be fool proof, but each year we find bigger fools! Instead of the “Stud RB” or the “Zero RB” theorie, my strategy has more to do with finding the best value with every pick. Instead of drafting based on filling out your team, your first five picks should be mainly about getting the best value. But determining “best value” is the tough part. Every player at every level of the draft has positives and negatives. Every player also has value! Beware of the “Ten Players to Avoid” articles or the advice…
It is never too early to start getting ready for fantasy football season. The NFL Draft is over and most of the free agents that will have an impact in fantasy scoring this season have found new homes. This is a fun time to draft a team or two and to try a new format. But before you jump into the deep end on a dynasty draft, if you have been a lifelong redraft or keeper league player, you need to practice. Strategy Differences Between Dynasty and Redraft One of my reasons for loving dynasty formats more and more are…
What happens when an old guy (DMIC) and a young guy (JD) get together to talk sports? Tune in and find out! This week, the Dynamic Duo discuss the NFL Playoffs, their local sports stars, and take a look at NCAA Basketball. Will the Chiefs and Saints hold serve as the home teams? Did Karma bite Alshon Jeffrey on the rump? What is the highest number of NFL players one high school has in the NFL right now? Does the One and Done rule hurt or help College Basketball? All this and more this week on “Two Guys Talking Sports.”…
Trying to figure out what coaches in sophisticated offenses plan to do to stop the opposing defense has always been difficult, but in today’s NFL, it is downright impossible. Last week was a classic example of this situation, when it came to deciding between Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard for the Chicago Bears against the Detroit Lions. Let’s take a look at the statistics heading into this game. Matt Nagy’s Offense Matt Nagy’s offense is great at using mismatches to take advantage of an opponent’s weakness on defense. Last year, the two biggest weapons for Nagy’s Kansas City Chiefs…
Each year, I have one huge pet peeve about what some fantasy football players say when asked about why they value a particular player more than another. “Player X has so much more talent than Player Z, I don’t understand why Coach Y doesn’t play him more. If he only got the chance, he would be a RB1 for me!” This comment has two major flaws. First, talent scouts and coaches spend much more time in person with their players than even the most ardent fantasy football player, so there is a reason Player X isn’t getting more playing time.…
When it comes to fantasy football advice, I have learned from the best. The analysts over at Football Guys showed me the importance of Value Drafting by position. My fellow writers at FlurrySports have taught me about Cognitive Bias and how to work the Salary Cap on Daily Fantasy games. But the greatest fantasy football expert of all time used to sing about this great game of ours. Everyone remembers this great classic from Kenny Rogers! You gotta know when to hold em Know when to fade em Know when to walk to waivers Know when to run You never…
Twitter exploded recently after comments about how “fantasy football is making this generation of football fans dumber than ever.” Fantasy football players do tend to overreact about players more than their non fantasy-playing friends, but most fantasy ballers do understand the simple concept that NFL coaches are not coaching for our benefit! But every once in awhile, it does pay off to point out how fantasy football teaches us reality. FitzMagic Era Ends Soon If you didn’t love the post game press conference with Ryan Fitzpatrick doing his best Conor McGregor imitation, then you simply don’t love life! Question:…
In fantasy football, we get fixated on total points at the end of the year. But MOST leagues are head to head on a weekly basis. That makes total points less important than consistent performance. We also want guys who can carry our team with a great week. The following RB consistency rankings aim to give you another tool for deciding between players in your fantasy draft. This is just one of many tools, so check out the rest of our Fantasy Football Draft Kit. Rationale- The only thing that matters is the last two years worth of fantasy football…