Forecasting fantasy football results is very similar to forecasting the weather, which I have been doing for over 30 years. There is always a range of outcomes possible in fantasy football forecasting, just like in weather forecasting.
For a longer explanation of our Range of Outcomes Theory for fantasy football, CLICK HERE.
List of Data Needed
I have come up with a simple formula to follow for projecting a player’s value. I will give you the list without going into detail on why these factors were chosen and others omitted…
- Last three years of rankings
- Significant roster changes, plus or minus
- Changes to coaching plans/offensive concept
- Changes to defense on player’s team
- Top-10 weeks rating based on last two years
- Specialized fantasy football tool — combines consistency with big play potential
- Age of player
- Injury history and potential
Projecting Saquon Barkley’s Fantasy Value
ADP: RB1 — ADP 1.01 — Range 1.01 to 1.04
- Finished 2nd place in PPR format league his rookie season
- Added Golden Tate subtracted OBJ at WR, possible time share at QB during year
- No major change
- Subtractions from 24th ranked defense, could get worse, solid defense draft though
- Ranked 9th
- Ranked 2nd
- Age 22 season, no impact, all top ten players age 27 and younger
- 352 touches in rookie season, higher than normal usage
The Top-10 weeks data comes in abnormally low for Saquon, due to only playing one season. Online sportsbooks think the Giants will be among the league’s worst, but will the offense weaken from last year? That is the only concern with Saquon, but let’s be honest, other than him, the offense was very weak last year.
Ceiling — RB1 | Floor — RB4 | Most Likely — RB1
Barring injury, is there a RB in fantasy football that is more of a sure bet than Saquon Barkley to finish in the top five this season? He managed second place last year on a bad team, and he provides insurance in the PPR format, with 91 receptions last season.