Forecasting fantasy football results is very similar to forecasting the weather, which I have been doing for over 30 years. There is always a range of outcomes possible in fantasy football forecasting, just like in weather forecasting.
For a longer explanation of our Range of Outcomes Theory for fantasy football, CLICK HERE.
List of Data Needed
I have come up with a simple formula to follow for projecting a player’s value. I will give you the list without going into detail on why these factors were chosen and others omitted…
- Last three years of rankings
- Significant roster changes, plus or minus
- Changes to coaching plans/offensive concept
- Changes to defense on player’s team
- Top-10 weeks rating based on last two years
- Specialized fantasy football tool — combines consistency with big play potential
- Age of player
- Injury history and potential
Projecting Andrew Luck’s Fantasy Value
Rank: QB2 — ADP 4.10 — Range 3.07 to 5.12
- Finished 5th, 4th, and 1st in the last three seasons he was healthy
- Added Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell at WR
- No major changes, but could see running game increase
- Drafted seven defensive players, defense ranked 11th in yards 2018
- Ranked 10th
- Ranked 7th
- Age 30 season, no impact, six of top-10 at position 30-39 years old
- Major shoulder injury made him lose all of 2017 season
The data on Top-10 weeks rating relates to the potential for risk versus reward on a weekly basis that factors more into roster building than a seasonal ceiling/floor forecast. Barring serious injury, Luck should be even better one year removed from major shoulder surgery, and his arm strength showed improvement after the first four weeks. Last year, Luck did have 639 passing attempts, which was an all-time high for him. We could see this number drop slightly, with more of a running attack. His TD and INT percentages were close to his career averages, but his completion percentage was seven percent higher than his career average. His second half split in fantasy points was greater than his first half stats, which supports the improved arm strength theory.
Ceiling — QB1 | Floor — QB6 | Most Likely — QB3
Assuming he plays a full season it is reasonable to think that Andrew Luck could increase his TD total while keeping his yardage similar yielding a return to the number one spot at QB. Can you imagine him regressing more than one position from 5th to any lower than 6th this season? My best guess for Luck would be to finish third this season with the range between 1-6.