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Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Trends, Starting Pitchers and Betting Odds for MLB Playoffs AL Wild Card Game

After a grueling 162-game season came all the way down to the final day, arguably the biggest rivalry in all of baseball will kick off the 2021 MLB Playoffs. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox finished the season with identical 92-70 records. Thanks to the Red Sox winning the season head-to-head series, tonight’s American League Wild Card Game will be played at Fenway Park. There is certainly no love lost between these two teams. With the winner of tonight’s game advancing on to the Divisional Round and the loser going home, the stakes could not possibly be any higher in this MLB betting showdown. 

This MLB betting preview for the Yankees vs Red Sox AL Wild Card Game includes game info, projected starting pitchers, betting odds, trends and a prediction for this win-or-go-home matchup.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview and Prediction | MLB Playoffs

AL Wild Card Game
New York Yankees (92-70, 46-35 Away) vs. Boston Red Sox (92-70, 49-32 Home)
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 5, 2021
Time: 8 p.m. EST
Venue: Fenway Park — Boston, MA
Coverage: ESPN

Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers

Yankees: Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23 ERA)
Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA)

New York Yankees Preview

The Yankees actually went into the final weekend of regular-season play with a two-game cushion in the AL Wild Card race. After losing the first two games of their series to the AL East Division Champion Tampa Bay Rays, New York still found itself in a must-win scenario on Sunday. After being held to a single hit over the first eight innings, the Yankees managed to scratch across a run in the bottom of the ninth to secure their spot in the MLB Playoffs. Fittingly, Aaron Judge was the hero with a walk-off base hit to help the Yankees clinch.

While tonight’s MLB betting matchup is a win-or-go-home affair, the Yankees have to be feeling pretty good about their chances. A huge part of this lies in the fact that they will send pitcher Gerrit Cole to the mound to start this evening. Cole’s 2021 campaign got off to a rocky start when he was busted for doctoring baseballs. After a stint on the IL, he returned to his dominant self even without the help of “sticky stuff”. Cole has an outside chance to be named the AL Cy Young Award winner. However, he was not quite as sharp after the All-Star break. Cole also struggled to a 2-2 record against the Red Sox on the season. He allowed five homers and totaled a 4.91 ERA in four starts against Boston.

Boston Red Sox Preview

After somehow losing two out of three to the lowly Baltimore Orioles last week, the Red Sox found themselves backed into a corner heading into their final regular-season series. Apparently, Alex Cora’s club has ice in its veins. The Red Sox went out and swept the Washington Nationals over the final weekend to lock up the top Wild Card spot in the American League. Even a 5-1 deficit in Game No. 162 on Sunday couldn’t phase this bunch. Rafael Devers slugged two home runs, including the go-ahead shot in the top of the ninth, and the Red Sox pulled out the playoff-clinching win.

While the Yankees possess a potent lineup filled with star power, the Red Sox have been one of the best offenses in all of baseball this season. Devers has gotten plenty of help from Xander Bogaerts and trade deadline acquisition Kyle Schwarber. The real surprise for Boston this season has been the success of their pitching. It will be Nathan Eovaldi getting the start in tonight’s Yankees vs Red Sox MLB betting matchup. Unlike Cole, Eovaldi does not have the numbers to come anywhere near the AL Cy Young Award conversation. However, he has been the Red Sox’s most consistent starter all season long. In six outings against the Yankees on the year, Eovaldi has held the Bronx Bombers in check, posting a 3.81 ERA

Rafael Devers MLB betting Yankees vs Red Sox playoffs AL Wild Card game odds prediction trends
Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Betting Odds

MLB betting odds for Yankees vs Red Sox are taken from BetMGM Sportsbook.

Moneyline: NYY: (-135) | BOS: (+110)
Run Line:
NYY: -1.5 (+125) | BOS: +1.5 (-155)
8 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages
via Action Network: NYY: (67%) | BOS: (33%)

Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Betting Trends

  • Yankees are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games. 
  • Red Sox are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
  • Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last six road games.
  • The total has gone under in seven of the Red Sox’ last eight games.
  • Yankees are 6-0 SU in their last six head-to-head matchups against the Red Sox.

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Yankees vs Red Sox Stats

  • New York is averaging 4.39 runs per game (RPG) this season (No. 19 in the MLB).
  • New York is surrendering 4.13 RPG this season (No. 10 in the MLB).
  • Boston is averaging 5.12 RPG this season (T-No. 4 in the MLB).
  • Boston is surrendering 4.62 RPG this season (T-No. 17 in the MLB).

Yankees vs Red Sox Weather Report

Status: Clear
Temperature: 57℉
Humidity: 83%
Precipitation: 1%
Wind: 5 MPH (blowing north)

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction

The Yankees vs Red Sox MLB betting prediction uses NumberFire’s probability model. They give Boston a 52.0% chance to win this AL Wild Card Game matchup.

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