A battle of NFC playoff contenders is scheduled for the late afternoon NFL slate in Week 8 as the New Orleans Saints travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears. Both teams currently sit just off the pace in their divisions with records of 4-3 and 5-2 respectively. In addition, a win on Sunday could prove vital down the road for both teams in terms of the postseason head-to-head tiebreaker. The NFL odds and expert NFL picks have sided with the road team thus far.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets and best NFL picks for Saints vs Bears on Sunday afternoon.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | Saints vs Bears
Saints vs Bears Game Info
New Orleans Saints (4-3, 1-1 Away) vs. Chicago Bears (5-2, 2-1 Home)
Date: Sunday, Nov. 1, 2020
Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
Venue: Soldier Field — Chicago, IL
Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
Saints vs Bears NFL Odds
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: Saints -2.5; O/U 46
Moneyline: NO: (-225) | CHI: (+185)
Spread: NO: -5 (-110) | CHI: +5 (-110)
Total: 43.5 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-110)
Saints vs Bears Overview
The Saints are coming off a thrilling victory over the Carolina Panthers last week. If Joey Slye’s 65-yard field goal attempt had had maybe a yard or two more distance on it, New Orleans could’ve very well found themselves in an overtime affair. As it is, the Saints are 4-3 and riding a 3-game winning streak into their game against the Bears this week, a big reason why the NFL odds and NFL picks have swung in their favor from an opening line of 2.5 up to 5. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a very winnable matchup against the New York Giants this week, a Saints win is paramount to stay a game back in the NFC South race.
Just when it seemed like New Orleans would be getting star wide receiver Michael Thomas back on the field for the first time since Week 1, reports from practice this week seem to indicate he is a longshot to play as he battles a hamstring injury. That’s a significant blow when you’re facing an elite pass defense like the Bears. Drew Brees will likely be under duress throughout making short passes and screens to Alvin Kamara an even greater part of the offensive game plan. The Saints have been great ATS when playing on the road on Sundays in the recent past, with a mark of 14-1. The point spread line movement through the key number of 3 falls in line with that sentiment.
The offense simply has to be better for the Bears than what we saw against the Los Angeles Rams last Monday night. With this in mind, Nick Foles and the Chicago offense figure to be able to do a bit more damage against a Saints defense that has been vulnerable this season. The 24 points allowed to Carolina was the lowest such figure the Saints have put up in that category this season. Meanwhile, Matt Nagy’s offense has only scored more than 24 points twice this season, a stat that definitely causes the NFL odds and NFL picks to work against them. Something has to give on Sunday.
What I don’t anticipate giving way is the Bears’ defense. Ranked 6th overall in adjusted efficiency by Football Outsiders (3rd against the pass, 10th against the run), Chicago has not given up more than 26 points in any one game this season while holding four of their previous seven opponents below the 20-point threshold. The pass rush, led by Khalil Mack, has been largely responsible for the unit’s success. If Thomas is indeed sidelined for New Orleans, Chicago can key in on Kamara and potentially leave the Saints scrambling for answers as they try to cover the NFL odds.
Saints vs Bears Betting Trends
- Saints 2020 Betting Trends: 2-4 ATS; 6-0 to the Over
- Bears 2020 Betting Trends: 4-3 ATS; 2-5 to the Over
- The Saints are 5-0 both straight up and ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings against the Bears.
- The Under has hit in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the Saints and Bears.
- The Under has gone 12-3 in the Bears last 15 home games with Matt Nagy as head coach.
Saints vs Bears Stats
- New Orleans has averaged 30.0 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 7 in the NFL)
- New Orleans has surrendered 29.0 PPG this season (Tied for No. 24 in the NFL)
- Chicago has averaged 19.7 PPG this season (No. 27 in the NFL)
- Chicago has surrendered 20.0 PPG this season (No. 7 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Props
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire Week 8 slate. Here is one of my favorites for the Saints vs Bears game.
With a defensive slugfest expected, I believe both Drew Brees and Nick Foles will be hard-pressed to surpass the passing yards totals in this game. With that said, both Allen Robinson and Alvin Kamara are both such a big part of what the Saints and Bears want to do offensively that I like both players to have solid showings on Sunday. Robinson’s target share gives him a great chance to surpass 75 receiving yards while Kamara has comfortably exceeded 6 receptions in all but two games this season. While David Montgomery is the clear workhorse back for Chicago, but the Bears have failed to demonstrate that they can run the football with much consistent success. This combined with the Saints allowing the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game to opponents (89.7) leads me to like the under on Montgomery’s rushing yards total in this game.
Picking all five statistical totals correctly would win you 15x your buy-in.
Saints vs Bears NFL Picks and NFL Odds
Both the point spread and total for this game have seen expert NFL picks move the lines throughout the week. While the Saints have attracted the favor of the betting market in terms of the side as previously mentioned, the total has taken money on the under. The opening NFL odds of 46 have come down to 43.5 with the strong Bears defense undoubtedly being the main factor behind the move.
Chilly temperatures and winds between 15 and 20 MPH are expected in Chicago for when this game will be taking place. Typical Windy City November weather to say the least. I just don’t see the Saints being able to put up points in this game as they have on nearly every other occasion this season. I certainly am not rushing to back the Bears offense to score much either, regardless of the defense standing in their way. 20-17 or some score of that nature is about as high as I envision this game going.
I also expect the Bears to certainly be competitive following a disappointing loss this past week. With the home team catching points in what I handicap to be a low-scoring game, buying back on the underdog is also an option here.
Picks: Bears +5; Under 43.5 (Both -110 at Bovada Sportsbook)