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Red Sox vs Astros Prediction, Trends, Starting Pitchers and Betting Odds for MLB Playoffs ALCS Game 1

The MLB Postseason has been nothing short of epic thus far. With all of the division series complete, just four teams remain in the quest to win this year’s World Series. For the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros, that quest resumes tonight. Game 1 of the American League Championship Series is scheduled for this evening at the always raucous Minute Maid Park. The MLB betting odds have declared the home team the favorite ahead of tonight’s Red Sox vs Astros showdown.

This MLB betting preview for Red Sox vs Astros ALCS Game 1 includes game info, projected starting pitchers, betting odds, trends and a prediction for this series-opening matchup.

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Betting Preview and Prediction | MLB Playoffs Game 1

ALCS Game 1
Boston Red Sox (92-70, 43-38 Away) vs. Houston Astros (95-67, 51-30 Home)
Date: Friday, Oct. 15, 2021
Time: 8:07 p.m. EST
Venue: Minute Maid Park — Houston, TX
Coverage: FOX

Red Sox vs Astros Starting Pitchers

Red Sox: Chris Sale (5-1, 3.16 ERA)
Astros: Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA)

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Red Sox sure have a bit of that “Team of Destiny” flare about them this season. After dispatching the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game, Boston knocked off the 100-win Tampa Bay Rays in four games to reach the ALCS. Having single-handedly eliminated the rest of the AL East Division, the Red Sox will now try to upset the Astros as MLB betting series underdogs. Offense has been the story for Boston all season long. A star-studded lineup is headlined by Rafael Devers, who homered in the ALDS-clinching win on Monday. Enrique Hernandez is perhaps the hottest hitter in baseball entering this series. Trade deadline acquisition Kyle Schwarber continues to pay dividends for the Red Sox as well.

Manager Alex Cora has a difficult task ahead of him when it comes to maximizing a pitching staff that was only average on the season. For Game 1 of the ALCS, he is placing his trust in veteran left-hander, Chris Sale. Of course, Sale missed the vast majority of the 2021 season after undergoing offseason surgery. Since coming back, he has posted a respectable 3.17 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. However, he got rocked by the Rays in his lone ALDS start, surrendering four hits and five runs in just one inning. Sale has yet to face the Astros this season.

Houston Astros Preview

For as strong as the Red Sox were offensively this season, the Astros were even better. The MLB betting series favorites led all of baseball in runs scored per game on the year. That theme certainly continued in the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox. The Astros scored 31 runs en route to winning the series in four games. There is no weak link in the batting lineup. Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley starred in the Game 4 ALDS clincher with three hits apiece, including an Altuve home run. Further down the batting order, Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel each chimed in with two hits. Opposing pitchers cannot take a single batter or pitch off when matched up against Houston.

Unlike the Red Sox, the Astros have a stout pitching staff to match their potent offense. That’s saying something too, considering the fact that ace, Justin Verlander, has been out all season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Despite many MLB betting experts anticipating some regression, the Astros have kept right on rolling. Dusty Baker will give the ball to Framber Valdez as his ALCS Game 1 starter. Valdez finished the regular season with a 3.14 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while piling up 125 strikeouts. The White Sox did tag him for seven hits and four runs in his ALDS Game 2 start. However, in two early-season outings against the Red Sox, Valdez surrendered only two runs on two total hits over 14.1 total innings. 

Jose Altuve Red Sox vs Astros MLB betting trends starting pitchers prediction
Credit: Elizabeth Conley/Houston Chronicle

Red Sox vs Astros MLB Betting Odds

MLB betting odds for Red Sox vs Astros are taken from BetMGM Sportsbook.

Moneyline: BOS: (+115) | HOU: (-140)
Run Line:
BOS: +1.5 (-165) | HOU: -1.5 (+140)
8.5 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)
Public (Spread) Betting
via Action Network: BOS: (41%) | HOU: (59%)
Pre-Series Odds to Win the ALCS: BOS: (+125) | HOU: (-150)

Red Sox vs Astros MLB Betting Trends

  • Red Sox are 4-1 SU in their last five road games.
  • The total has gone over in four of the Red Sox’ last six games.
  • Astros are 5-1 SU in their last six home games.
  • Six of the Astros’ last seven games have gone over the total.
  • Seven of the last eight Red Sox vs Astros head-to-head matchups played in Houston have gone under the total.

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Red Sox vs Astros Stats

  • Boston is averaging 5.16 runs per game (RPG) this season (No. 4 in the MLB).
  • Boston is surrendering 4.62 RPG this season (No. 17 in the MLB).
  • Houston is averaging 5.39 RPG this season (No. 1 in the MLB).
  • Houston is surrendering 4.07 RPG this season (No. 6 in the MLB).

Red Sox vs Astros Weather Report

Note: This game will be played indoors.

Red Sox vs Astros Prediction

The Red Sox vs Astros MLB betting prediction uses NumberFire’s probability model. They give Houston a 59.0% chance to win Game 1 of this ALCS matchup.

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