The first of two AFC Divisional Round games feature two of the NFL’s hottest teams. Wind and snow are in the forecast for Saturday night in Western New York, with the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills set to kick off shortly after 8 pm ET. Both teams surged into the NFL Playoffs and earned wins in their respective Wild Card games last week. Only one of the two can advance beyond the Divisional Round, though. The NFL betting odds have listed the home team as a narrow favorite.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and predictions for the Ravens vs Bills NFL Playoffs game on Saturday night.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | Ravens vs Bills
Ravens vs Bills Game Info
Baltimore Ravens (12-5, 7-2 Away) at Buffalo Bills (14-3, 8-1 Home)
Date: Saturday, Jan. 16, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
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Ravens vs Bills NFL Odds + NFL Picks
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: Bills -3; O/U 50.5
Moneyline: BAL: (+125) | BUF: (-145)
Spread: BAL: +2.5 (+100) | BUF: -2.5 (-120)
Total: 49.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Ravens vs Bills NFL Playoffs Overview
Both the Ravens and Bills enter Saturday night’s Divisional Round game with winning streaks that are nearly a half season long. Baltimore has won each of their last six games, including a 20-13 win over the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card Round last week. Buffalo’s win streak reached seven straight games, with their 27-24 win over the Indianapolis Colts last Saturday. This matchup has what it takes to be the game of the weekend. The weather forecast for the Buffalo area is something to watch, with high winds and a mixture of rain and snow in the cards.
It took three tries, but Lamar Jackson was finally able to get the monkey of never winning a playoff game off his back last week. Many NFL betting analysts are speculating as to how snowy Western New York conditions might impact Jackson on Saturday. In reality, the Ravens may be better suited for a snow game than the Bills.
Baltimore prioritizes running the football and also ranked 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency against the run this season (Football Outsiders). Jackson had 16 carries in the Wild Card game and it seems safe to expect more in this one. Bettors should also anticipate a heavy dose of J.K. Dobbins on the ground. Defensively, the Ravens’ cornerback trio of Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and Jimmy Smith will be the focal point in trying to contain the Bills passing attack.
Josh Allen will likely fall short of winning the NFL MVP Award, but he was magnificent once again last week. A 98-yard scoring drive just before halftime was the key turning point of the game, and Buffalo was able to hold on late. While wind and snow wouldn’t figure to be friendly to a pass-first offense like the Bills, Allen has already played in his fair share of snow games in college at Wyoming. What’s more, he is plenty capable of making plays with his legs just like Jackson.
On the downside, the Bills’ backfield has been inconsistent all year. They were dealt a blow last week with rookie Zack Moss sustaining an ankle injury. Buffalo has looked vulnerable defensively all season, with last week’s playoff game being no exception. A better game plan will be needed if they hope to contain Jackson and the Ravens on Saturday.
Ravens vs Bills Betting Trends
- Ravens 2020-21 Betting Trends: 11-6 ATS; 7-10 to the Over
- Bills 2020-21 Betting Trends: 11-6 ATS; 11-5-1 to the Over
- The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
- The Ravens are 13-2 straight up in their last 15 road games.
- The Ravens are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 road games against opponents on winning streaks of four or more games.
- The Bills are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
- The Bills are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against opponents on winnings streaks of six or more games.
- The total has hit the Under in four of the last five games between the Ravens and Bills in Buffalo.
Ravens vs Bills Stats
- Baltimore is averaging 28.7 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 7 in the NFL).
- Baltimore is surrendering 18.6 PPG this season (Tied for No. 1 in the NFL).
- Buffalo is averaging 31.1 PPG this season (No. 2 in the NFL).
- Buffalo is surrendering 23.5 PPG this season (No. 15 in the NFL).
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Playoffs Props | Ravens vs Bills
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire NFL Playoffs Divisional Round slate. Here is one in particular that I like for the Ravens vs Bills game.
To succeed in the playoffs, you need your stars to show up. With this in mind, I like J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andrews, and Stefon Diggs as my three players to exceed the NFL betting goal of 1.5 touchdowns on Saturday. Dobbins is the lead back in what is a run-first Ravens offense. He has reached the end zone in each of Baltimore’s seven games, including in the Wild Card matchup against Tennessee last week.
Meanwhile, Mark Andrews has been a steady red-zone target for Jackson all season. While I don’t expect the Ravens to be throwing much in this game, Andrews is the most likely pass-catcher to score. In addition, the Bills were one of the worst teams defending opposing tight ends this year.
Finally, I like star wideout Stefon Diggs as our touchdown pick on the Buffalo side. While Devin Singletary is a sneaky alternative, I honestly sooner envision Josh Allen running it in than I do Singletary. The tough matchup and conditions work against Diggs, but there’s no one else I’d rather trust in this NFL betting prop.
Correctly picking players to exceed the stated touchdown goal of 1.5 would win you 2x your buy-in on Monkey Knife Fight this weekend!
Ravens vs Bills NFL Playoffs Prediction
The NFL betting market has fluctuated throughout the week in advance of this AFC Divisional matchup. An opening point spread of Bills -3 took a steep dive right away, with the line falling as low as 1.5. Buyback then ensued, with the current market showing the Bills as 2.5 home favorites. The total has seen pretty one-sided traffic to the Under, dropping a full point and a half from the opening 50.5.
For the record, it’s hard to bet against either one of these teams right now given how well they’ve been playing. While their respective offenses are very different in terms of approach, both are plenty potent. One would figure the Bills to be in their element if it is indeed snowing, but I’m not so sure that’s the case this year. For me, this handicap comes down to the run game and defense, both of which are facets of the game in which the Ravens have the edge.
Before the NFL season began, the Ravens had the second shortest odds to win Super Bowl LV behind only the defending champion Chiefs. While they struggled to find their mojo, Baltimore is clicking on all cylinders at the right time. This Ravens defense is better than any the Bills saw down the stretch of the regular season. Add in the wind and snow which would favor the strong Baltimore run game and I have to side with the underdog.
Ravens vs Bills Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Bills 21
Betting Picks: Ravens ML (+125), Ravens +2.5 (+100) and Under 49.5 (-110) at Bovada Sportsbook