The NFL Playoffs will officially kick off with Wild Card Weekend on Saturday afternoon. The Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills are tasked with getting the party started, when they collide in the 2-seed vs. 7-seed matchup on the AFC side. Despite being separated by five seeds in the playoff bracket, the two teams were actually only separated by two games in the final standings. The NFL odds have the home team listed as a touchdown favorite in advance of the matchup.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and predictions for the Colts vs Bills NFL Playoffs game on Saturday afternoon.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | Colts vs Bills
Colts vs Bills Game Info
Indianapolis Colts (11-5, 5-3 Away) at Buffalo Bills (13-3, 7-1 Home)
Date: Saturday, Jan. 9, 2020
Time: 1:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Colts vs Bills NFL Odds + NFL Picks
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: Bills -6.5; O/U 51.5
Moneyline: IND: (+240) | BUF: (-290)
Spread: IND: +7 (-125) | BUF: -7 (+105)
Total: 51 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Colts vs Bills NFL Playoffs Overview
Ironically, the Colts would not have even qualified for the NFL Playoffs if not for an assist from the same Bills team that they will face on Saturday. Buffalo’s Week 17 win over the Miami Dolphins coupled with the Colts winning their regular season finale over the Jacksonville Jaguars enabled Indianapolis to sneak in as the 7-seed. Frank Reich, who is quietly one of the best coaches in the NFL, will look to capitalize on the postseason opportunity and outduel the defending Coach of the Year on the Buffalo sideline, Sean McDermott.
Indianapolis was one of just four NFL teams to rank in the top-10 in both points scored and allowed on a per-game basis this season. Veteran quarterback Philip Rivers has exceeded many people’s expectations, and rookie running back Jonathan Taylor only got better as the season went along. Defensively, Indianapolis will certainly have their hands full trying to slow down the high-powered Bills offense. With that said, this is still a supremely talented unit, headlined by DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard, and rookie safety Julian Blackmon. Consider it a win if the Colts can hold the Bills in the low to mid-20’s on the scoreboard
MVP-candidate Josh Allen has taken the next steps for the Bills this season as an NFL quarterback and then some. The trade to bring in elite wideout Stefon Diggs has certainly paid off this season. Both John Brown and Cole Beasley are also plenty dangerous as the second and third options in the passing game. The biggest question marks for Buffalo heading into the NFL Playoffs center around the running game and the defense. The backfield duo of Devin Singletary and Zack Moss has failed to generate much consistent success this season. Defensively, the Bills were actually very average all season. Will they be able to take things to the next level in the NFL playoffs spotlight?
Colts vs Bills Betting Trends
- Colts 2020-21 Betting Trends: 8-8 ATS; 9-7 to the Over
- Bills 2020-21 Betting Trends: 11-5 ATS; 10-5-1 to the Over
- The Colts are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
- The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.
- 11 of the Bills’ 16 games this season went Over the total.
- The Bills are 4-2 ATS in their last six head-to-head games against the Colts.
- Home teams have been the outright winner in each of the last six head-to-head games between the Colts and Bills.
- Under the total has hit in each of the last four and seven of the last eight head-to-head games between the Colts and Bills.
Colts vs Bills Stats
- Indianapolis is averaging 28.2 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 9 in the NFL).
- Indianapolis is surrendering 22.6 PPG this season (No. 10 in the NFL).
- Buffalo is averaging 31.3 PPG this season (No. 2 in the NFL).
- Buffalo is surrendering 23.4 PPG this season (No. 16 in the NFL).
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Playoffs Props | Colts vs Bills
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend slate. Here is one in particular that I like for the Colts vs Bills game.
In this NFL props contest, the three selected players must eclipse the stated goal of 20.5 receptions. Stefon Diggs is clearly the top target for Josh Allen in the Bills offense and is an obvious choice for inclusion here. Along with Diggs, zoning in on Allen’s slot target is the other angle I am looking to attack for receptions volume. Cole Beasley is dealing with a knee injury, and while he does remain officially questionable, he was able to return to practice this week. If he is by chance ruled out of this Wild Card clash, Isaiah McKenzie would be the next man up. For those wary of trusting the backup Buffalo slot receiver, he did have six receptions while starting in place of Beasley last week.
For the Colts’ component of this prop, I’m electing to roll with Nyheim Hines. The pass-catching running back has been the most consistent Colts player in terms of receptions this season. While one could argue that Philip Rivers may lock in on any of T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr., or Zach Pascal, I believe Hines is the safest option in looking for reception volume.
Correctly picking three players to exceed 20.5 receptions would win double your chosen buy-in amount.
Colts vs Bills NFL Playoffs Prediction
Line movement for this game has been relatively scant in terms of range. The point spread has moved back and forth between the opening line of Bills -6.5 and an even 7 throughout the week. Meanwhile, the total has not deviated more than a half-point in either direction from the opening 51.5.
If I’m being honest, I see both the Colts and Bills as teams capable of making runs in the AFC playoffs. I would argue that both are far more balanced in terms of offensive and defensive ability than some of the other NFL Playoffs participants in the conference. Without a doubt, this game will be a good one to kick off the postseason festivities.
The Colts have significant advantages when it comes to each respective team’s defense and running game. With that said, betting against Josh Allen and the Bills’ high-octane offense to get the job done doesn’t seem wise. I’ll lean toward Buffalo winning and advancing on, but the Colts are good enough to keep this one close throughout.
Colts vs Bills Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Bills 31, Colts 27
Betting Picks: Colts +7, Over 51 (-125 and -110 respectively at Bovada Sportsbook)