It’s safe to say that few, if any, baseball fans and analysts envisioned a Phillies vs Padres matchup in the National League Championship Series. Both teams snuck into the MLB Playoffs with less than 90 wins but have gotten hot at the right time. Can the Philadelphia Phillies’ hot bats carry them past the San Diego Padres and their loaded lineup?
This MLB betting preview for the NLCS MLB Playoffs Phillies vs Padres Game 1 includes game info, starting pitchers, betting odds, trends and a prediction for tonight’s postseason matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction | NLCS MLB Playoffs Game 1
NLCS MLB Playoffs Game 1
Philadelphia Phillies (87-75, 40-41 Away) vs. San Diego Padres (89-73, 44-37 Home)
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2021
Time: 8:03 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park — San Diego, CA
Phillies vs Padres Starting Pitchers
Phillies: Zach Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA)
Padres: Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA)
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
Going into their NLDS series against the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies looked to be nothing more than a good story. Instead, the Phillies embarrassed the reigning MLB champions by taking the series in just four games while averaging six runs. While the Braves did look flat, the Phillies deserve a lot of credit for keeping the big bats of Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson and Michael Harris II in check for most of the series.
Once again, the Phillies face a step up in competition in the NLCS. The bullpen for the Padres has been incredible and it’ll be interesting to see how their bats can stack up against it. With the pitching of the Padres likely limiting their run production more than the last series, it’ll be crucial for the Phillies’ bullpen to limit the chances San Diego gets offensively.
San Diego Padres Preview
The San Diego Padres had easily the toughest route to get to the NLCS and they made it look easy. They won two of three in the Wild Card round over the 101-win New York Mets before pushing the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers out the door with a gentleman’s sweep. The bats of Trent Grisham and Aaron Nola have come around at the perfect time, with both hitting .381 with Grisham adding three home runs and five RBIs.
With their offense in full gear and their rotation stacked, the Padres’ bullpen is their one weakness. Up to this point in the postseason, it has been fantastic. They gave up just one run in 16 innings to the Los Angeles Dodgers but face an offense that is on a tear right now. If the starters can go five or six innings and the bullpen can just be close to their form of late, the Padres could easily find themselves in the World Series this postseason.
Phillies vs Padres Odds | MLB Playoffs Predictions
MLB betting odds for Phillies vs Padres are taken from BetOnline Sportsbook.
Moneyline: PHI: (+111) | SD: (-121)
Run Line: PHI: +1.5 (-215) | SD: -1.5 (+185)
Total: 6.5 — Over: (-125) | Under: (+105)
Public (Spread) Betting via Action Network: PHI: (56%) | SD: (44%)
Phillies vs Padres MLB Betting Trends
- San Diego is 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games.
- The under is 11-4 in San Diego’s last 15 games against Philadelphia.
- The over has hit in seven of San Diego’s last 10 games.
- Philadelphia is 5-1 straight up in their last six games.
- Philadelphia is 7-2 straight up in their last nine road games against San Diego.
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Phillies vs Padres Stats
- San Diego is averaging 4.35 runs per game (RPG) this season (No. 13 in the MLB).
- San Diego is surrendering 4.07 RPG this season (No. 10 in the MLB).
- Philadelphia is averaging 4.61 RPG this season (No. 7 in the MLB).
- Philadelphia is surrendering 4.23 RPG this season (No. 15 in the MLB).
Phillies vs Padres MLB Weather Report
Wind: 9 MPH (blowing out to center)
Phillies vs Padres Prediction | NLCS MLB Playoffs Game 1
The Phillies vs Padres prediction uses NumberFire’s probability model. They give San Diego a 50.9% chance to win Game 1 of this NLCS MLB Playoffs matchup.
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