Seattle Seahawks (5-2, 3-0 Away) vs Atlanta Falcons (1-6, 1-2 Home)
Date: Oct. 27, 2019
Time: 1 p.m. EST
There seems to be a familiar trend here, with what teams are featured in this article every week. The Falcons have the worst fantasy defense in terms of containing the QB, allowing 31.1 fantasy points per game in the last five games, and now they get to face off against one of the league’s best. Russell Wilson is a locked and loaded starter anyways, but coming off a bad loss to the Ravens, I know that Wilson will come guns blazing at this extremely weak defense. Although the Falcons defense may be the worst in the league, they surprisingly have an above average defense against the run, as they only allow 24.2 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Normally, this wouldn’t make for a good matchup to any RB, but luckily for Chris Carson, he should still be a top play. There is no question that Carson is the bell cow to this team, as the last three games he has seen snap shares of 84%, 80%, 89%. No matter the defense, Carson will be matchup proof with the work he receives.
Tyler Lockett is as consistent as they come and he is in a prime matchup this week against the Falcons. In the last five weeks, the Falcons have allowed 47.8 fantasy points per game to the WR position. Lockett is seeing a 21% target share, but I expect that to go up with the recent injury to Will Dissly. The Seahawks have a lack of depth when it comes to offensive weapons, and this is only going to help Lockett to produce fantasy points. With the recent injury to Dissly, D.K. Metcalf saw a huge uptick in targets and air yards, and this will be a consistent trend due to the lack of weapons, as mentioned before. Metcalf is a solid flex play and if he can sustain a 24% target share, like last game, and average above 100 air yard. Normally, I would be all for the Seattle TE in this spot, but do yourself a favor and do NOT play Luke Willson.
The Seahawks are ninth in most points allowed to fantasy QBs per game. Matt Ryan is questionable to play this week, but I believe he will, as the Falcons are in dire need of trying to gain some positive movement to recover their season. Last game was Ryan’s first, under 30 pass attempts this season, which was mostly due to his injury. But if their defense stays at the bottom of the league, Ryan will retain fantasy value due to negative game scripts.
They may try to run the ball a little more due to the injury, but if Ryan plays, he is for sure a weekly QB1. Let’s hope that Devonta Freeman does not try and fight the best defensive player in the league this week so he can score double-digit fantasy points. The Seahawks, in the last five games, are allowing 25.7 fantasy points to opposing RBs. This number is a little inflated due to the lack of RB usage the Ravens had last week, for they use Lamar Jackson as their primary rusher. This is a favorable matchup for Freeman, who will be playing without Ito Smith, so he should see an uptick in carries, notching him at a solid RB2 spot.
Seattle’s pass defense in the past five games has been lock down, but due to negative game script, I have no worries that Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will have solid games. With the recent loss of Mohamed Sanu, this will only bring more opportunities to Jones and Ridley, so I expect them to stay on stride and continue to produce. Jones and Ridley have an average of a 5.5% matchup advantage this week against Tre Flowers and Shaquill Griffin, but as mentioned before, volume remains king over matchups, so have confidence in these two players this week. Austin Hooper is continuing to produce at an elite level and there is no way that stops this week. Among all the TEs, he was given a 51% matchup advantage this week, which is the highest I have seen the past few weeks at the TE position. You shouldn’t have any doubts about playing Hooper anyways, but this week is a smash spot for Hooper to help out this desperate Falcons team.