After two thrilling races in the confines of Daytona International Speedway to begin the season, NASCAR makes the four-hour trek south for the third race of the season. Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 will be contested at Homestead-Miami Speedway. This will be the first race run on a 1.5-mile track this season. While this may be the most common length to handicap when making NASCAR betting picks, Homestead makes a strong case as the toughest track of its ilk.
This article offers a full comprehensive NASCAR betting guide for the Dixie Vodka 400 race, including the NASCAR odds, driver statistics, Homestead-Miami Speedway trends, and best NASCAR picks.
Dixie Vodka 400 Race Info
23rd Dixie Vodka 400
Location: Homestead, FL
Date: Sunday, Feb. 28, 2021
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Coverage: FOX
Length: 400 miles
Stages: Three (Laps 1-80; Laps 81-160; Laps 161-267)
Pole Sitter: Denny Hamlin
Defending Champion: Denny Hamlin
Check out the complete Dixie Vodka 400 startling lineup and race stats!
Dixie Vodka 400 NASCAR Betting Odds
Odds Courtesy of MyBookie Sportsbook
Defending Dixie Vodka 400 champion Denny Hamlin (+450) gets the nod as the NASCAR betting favorite. Given Hamlin’s strong track record at Homestead-Miami Speedway, it’s no surprise. He is tied with Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle for the most all-time wins at Homestead with three. Furthermore, his three stage wins in the first two races of the 2021 season signify that the #11 car has been running strong out of the gates. Just behind Hamlin in the NASCAR odds for this Sunday’s race are Kevin Harvick (+550), Chase Elliott (+550) and Martin Truex Jr. (+600). All four drivers with the shortest odds boast career average finishing positions at Homestead of 9.5 or less.
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Kyle Busch (+800) is the only other driver with NASCAR betting odds shorter than 10-1 for this race. Busch will have to work his way to the front from a 24th place starting position if he is to deliver on those odds. Joey Logano (+1000), Kyle Larson (+1100), Brad Keselowski (+1200) and Ryan Blaney (+1400) round out the nine drivers with Dixie Vodka 400 odds shorter than 25-1.
Two young drivers with just one career NASCAR Cup Series start apiece at Homestead who are worth noting are Tyler Reddick (+2500) and Christopher Bell (+3300). Reddick finished fourth in this race last season and tends to do well running the high line along the wall. Bell finished eighth in last year’s race and is riding momentum after his Daytona Road Course win last weekend.
Homestead-Miami Speedway Overview
Known for its rough surface and tire-eating prowess, Homestead-Miami Speedway is as difficult a track to run as any on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit. The track was home to the season finale championship race up until the 2020 season. With this being just the third NASCAR betting race of the 2021 season, it marks the earliest in a season calendar that Homestead has hosted a race weekend.
Combine Homestead Miami’s rough surface with its progressive banking and you have one of the most exciting 1.5-mile tracks in the series. In addition to tire wear, the track also lacks grip. Drivers are often forced to run along the wall high up the track in order to combat the various challenges that Homestead thrusts upon them. Outside of Darlington Raceway, Homestead is perhaps the toughest track to drive on the NASCAR betting circuit. The best drivers will often emerge at the front of the field given the difficult layout.
Our Homestead-Miami Speedway overview article provides additional in-depth analysis on the 1.5-mile track.
Dixie Vodka 400 Driver Statistics
Refer to the lists below for NASCAR betting driver statistics from previous races at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Average Finishing Position at Homestead
(Active drivers with 3+ Cup Series starts at the track)
| Rank | Driver | Best Finish | Average Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 1 | 3.2 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 2 | 6.6 |
| T-3 | Joey Logano | 1 | 7.0 |
| T-3 | Martin Truex Jr. | 1 | 7.0 |
| 5 | Kurt Busch | 5 | 7.6 |
| 6 | Denny Hamlin | 2 | 9.2 |
| 7 | Kyle Busch | 3 | 9.8 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | 1 | 10.2 |
| 9 | Kevin Harvick | 6 | 11.0 |
| 10 | Ryan Newman | 8 | 14.2 |
Driver Rating at Homestead
(Active drivers with at least one Cup Series start at the track)
| Rank | Driver | Car Number | Average Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Truex Jr. | 19 | 115.7 |
| 2 | Joey Logano | 22 | 113.2 |
| T-3 | Ryan Blaney | 12 | 110.0 |
| T-3 | Brad Keselowski | 2 | 110.0 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 9 | 105.0 |
| 6 | Kyle Busch | 18 | 103.3 |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin | 11 | 100.4 |
| 8 | Kurt Busch | 1 | 95.4 |
| 9 | Kevin Harvick | 4 | 94.5 |
| 10 | Aric Almirola | 10 | 84.7 |
| 11 | Alex Bowman | 48 | 81.0 |
| 12 | Ryan Newman | 6 | 75.1 |
| 13 | William Byron | 24 | 75.0 |
| 14 | Kyle Larson | 5 | 73.9 |
| 15 | Erik Jones | 43 | 69.8 |
Dixie Vodka 400 NASCAR Odds and Best NASCAR Picks
Dixie Vodka 400 Race Winner: Kyle Larson (+1100 at MyBookie Sportsbook)
While the four drivers with the shortest NASCAR betting odds all make for reasonable picks, I’m going to jump a bit further down the board. At 11-1, I believe Larson has tremendous value when it comes to picking the Dixie Vodka 400 race winner. Larson has an average finish of 13.0 at Homestead-Miami Speedway with three top-5 finishes to his name. His average driver rating of 107.0 is the best among active drivers with multiple starts at the track. Larson is comfortable running the high line at difficult tracks that require this style of racing like Homestead and Darlington.
On top of the impressive statistical history, Larson arguably has better support and equipment now than he ever has before with his new team at Hendrick Motorsports. It’s only a matter of time before the #5 car breaks through in its return season. This week’s Dixie Vodka 400 is as good a time for it to happen as ever.
Other Dixie Vodka 400 NASCAR Betting Picks
Best Finish in Group B: Kyle Larson (+320)
The following odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook
Top 5 Finish: Kevin Harvick (-106)
Top 10 Finish: Tyler Reddick (-125)
Team of Race Winner: Hendrick Motorsports (+265)
Top Toyota Car: Denny Hamlin (+130)
