Taking a look at the best Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks, including the Los Angeles Chargers.
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Welcome back to our weekly NFL Survivor column! If you are unaware of what NFL Survivor picks are, the basic concept is that you make NFL picks throughout the season, but you can only pick a team once. Once you lose, you’re knocked out, so choose your Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool picks wisely.
If you are new to reading my survivor articles, what I do is outline my “lock of the week,” my “value of the week,” and my “high-risk, high-reward pick of the week.”
The “lock” details what team I think has the best chance of winning their matchup. This will most likely be a good team that plays a bad team. The lock is also the official pick for NFL Survivor Pools, meaning we will not reuse a “lock.” My value pick details a mid-tier team that has a good matchup. And finally, my high-risk, high-reward pick details a bad team that has a good matchup. It may be worth it to look at the NFL betting odds for these games and place some bets as well.
Along with our weekly NFL Survivor picks article, we actually have our own free tool! Check out the FlurrySports NFL Survivor Pool picks tool here! This tool helps show you the optimal path with your picks. It also highlights win share, win probability, rest-of-season schedule strength and more! You have to check this out, because it’s really cool.
Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Lock of the Week | Best Pick for NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Los Angeles Chargers open the season as the biggest favorites of Week 1. That makes a lot of sense considering how Arizona projects to be one of the weakest teams in recent memory. On top of that, Los Angeles is coming into the season with a relatively healthy and revamped offensive line. With Mike McDaniel in town, I am expecting a heavy dose of the run to keep Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ receivers as healthy as possible. Given the expectations surrounding them, as well as the disappointments in Herbert’s tenure, starting the season off with a win is needed for the Chargers to really appear to be contenders this year.
As I stated before, having a healthy offensive line will be key for the Chargers this season. Yes, they have lost Tyler Biadasz to injury already, but it’s the health of the tackles that really solidifies this offensive front.
On the other side of the ball, looking at the Cardinals, it is hard to get really excited about this season. With Jeremiyah Love not handling a full workload right away, there is nothing on the offense that scares you, especially with a new coaching staff in place. Given that Los Angeles plays in a tough division, spending the pick on them here makes a lot more sense than waiting and having to make a tougher decision down the road.
According to our NFL Survivor Pool picks tool, the Los Angeles Chargers are the optimal pick to start your season.
Lock of the Week: Los Angeles Chargers
Value Pick | Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns
The Jacksonville Jaguars come into the week as 8.5-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns. This number makes sense given what we saw last season, as the Jaguars put together their best season in the Trevor Lawrence era, while Cleveland continues to struggle to put together a competent roster. After losing Myles Garrett and electing to start Deshaun Watson, it is hard to imagine that the Browns have the star power to keep up with the dynamic Jaguars offense that we saw last season. Cleveland projects to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. While that sucks to hear as a Browns fan, it is a perfect opportunity to use it to our advantage.
Jacksonville might be a better team than what the traditional value pick is, but it is hard to fully trust them to perform exactly to what we saw last year. I do think that the Jaguars are a good team, but given what we have seen over the franchise’s history, it is hard to ever feel fully comfortable relying on them. If you are in the same mindset that I am, seeing their Week 1 matchup is mouth-watering. Jacksonville should once again have a solid run game, with Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez leading the show, on top of Lawrence being a good runner. Establishing the run game right away will be key to neutralizing Jared Verse.
Once that run game gets set up, the Jaguars have several weapons in Parker Washington, Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers, Travis Hunter and Brenton Strange to attack the Browns through the air. Looking at the Browns’ offense, if Jacksonville can hold Quinshon Judkins (which seems doable given the Browns’ below-average offensive line), then there is nothing that scares you in the passing game.
The Jaguars look to be one of the safest NFL Survivor Pool picks of Week 1.
Value Pick of the Week: Jacksonville Jaguars
High Risk, High Reward Pick | Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets
The Tennessee Titans come into their Week 1 matchup against the New York Jets as 1.5-point favorites. While the 1.5-point spread is not encouraging by any means, this is a statement game in my mind for Tennessee. Looking at the Titans, they should be seen as one of the teams that are expected to make a jump this season. Cam Ward only got better as the season went along last year; the team invested in their offensive line, and the franchise overhauled the coaching staff. Robert Saleh brings in a ton of coaching experience, and Brian Daboll is one of the better play callers in the NFL. If Tennessee is serious about making the jump, they have to beat the lower-ranked teams in front of them, like the New York Jets.
The Titans will be a hard team to pick in your NFL Survivor Pool this year, and looking at their schedule, this may be one of the only opportunities that you get to use them. While the Jets have a sneaky-solid roster, the weakness on the defense is in the secondary. Outside of Minkah Fitzpatrick, there is not much that scares you when throwing the ball. Given what we have seen from Ward, as well as the weapons in Carnell Tate, Wan’Dale Robinson, Calvin Ridley and Gunnar Helm, attacking the Jets through the air will be what ends up propelling the Titans to a 1-0 start.
High Risk, High Reward Pick: Tennessee Titans
