In the final game of the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the New Orleans Saints for the third time this season.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and predictions for the Buccaneers vs Saints NFL Playoffs game on Saturday afternoon.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | Buccaneers vs Saints
Buccaneers vs Saints Game Info
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5, 6-2 Away) vs. New Orleans Saints (12-4, 6-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 17, 2021
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome — New Orleans, LA
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Buccaneers vs Saints NFL Odds + NFL Picks
All NFL betting lines and odds are available on Bovada Sportsbook.
Moneyline: TB: (+135) | NO: (-155)
Spread: TB: +3 (-110) | NO: -3 (-120)
Total: 52 – Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: TB: (54%) | NO: (46%)
Odds to Win Super Bowl LV: TB: (+700) | NO: (+600)
Buccaneers vs Saints NFL Playoffs Overview
The Buccaneers have lost both games against the Saints this season, with the most recent loss being an absolute embarrassment. They lost at home to New Orleans, 38-3, with the offense getting nothing going. Tom Brady threw zero touchdowns and three interceptions, while Ronald Jones finished with nine rushing yards total, which is one more than the team finished with. However, the Buccaneers offense has seemed to figure things out recently, shown by Brady’s 381 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Washington team last week. Jones was out last week, so Leonard Fournette took the majority of the backfield work. Jones is questionable again Sunday. Defensively, they get Devin White back in the linebacking corps, which will be a big boost. Still, they must come in with a different game plan than they did last time.
This Saints offense seems built to beat the Buccaneers. Using short, quick throws, Drew Brees and company have dink-and-dunked down the field in both matchups. Between the two games, Brees passed for 382 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. Defensively, this defensive front stops the run and gets pressure on quarterbacks. Between the two games against Tampa, they allowed just 94 rushing yards while sacking Brady six times. If the Saints do not allow the Buccaneers to set up play action again, it could be a clean sweep.
Buccaneers vs Saints NFL Betting Trends
- The Saints are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in the last five games against the Buccaneers.
- The Saints are 5-0 straight up in the last five games against the Buccaneers.
- The total has hit the over in four of the last five games between the Buccaneers and Saints in New Orleans.
- The Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
- The Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The total has hit the under in seven of the Saints’ last 10 games.
Buccaneers vs Saints Stats
- Tampa Bay is averaging 30.8 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 3 in the NFL).
- Tampa Bay is surrendering 22.2 PPG this season (No. 8 in the NFL).
- New Orleans is averaging 29.6 PPG this season (T-No. 4 in the NFL).
- New Orleans is surrendering 20.4 PPG this season (T-No. 4 in the NFL).
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Playoffs Props | Buccaneers vs Saints
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire NFL Playoffs. Here is one in particular that I like for the Buccaneers vs Saints.
Gone are the days of Drew Brees putting the team on his back and passing for 400 yards. The most he passed for against Tampa this season was 222. He has passed for under 275.5 in five of his last six games. Unless the game gets fully out of hand, it would be surprising to see Brees go downfield enough for this prop to hit.
As for Leonard Fournette, there’s multiple reasons why this under is nice. While it does appear Jones will be out for Tampa again, he could play, which would completely shatter Fournette’s chance at this over. Secondly, this Saints run defense is really good. They’re tied for second in yards allowed per carry (3.8). And, like I said previously, the Buccaneers totaled eight rushing yards against them last game.
Predicting this prop correctly earns you 3.5x your buy-in on Monkey Knife Fight this weekend!
Buccaneers vs Saints NFL Playoffs Prediction
Yes, the Buccaneers are looking better. Getting Antonio Brown involved in a more consistent, expanded role has allowed this offense to work, They have also been more creative on early downs, which has allowed for “second and manageable” situations.
However, as Taylor Heinicke showed last week, there’s obvious holes in this defense. If Tampa’s defensive line is neutralized by quick passes, this defense struggles. On top of that, New Orleans has a damn good offensive line, giving up two sacks in two games against the Buccaneers.
If Tampa is unable to set up play action, I think the struggles will continue for Brady against the Saints this season. While this by no means will be a blowout like last time, I like New Orleans to move onto Green Bay next week.
Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Saints 27, Buccaneers 23
Betting Picks: Saints -3 (-120), Under 52 (-105) at Bovada Sportsbook)