This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup features a pair of 3-1 teams that both sport impressive defenses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, fresh off a shootout victory for their third straight win, travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears. While they are both now on different teams, it’s impossible to overlook the quarterback rematch from Super Bowl LII as Tom Brady and Nick Foles face off once again. The NFL odds and expert NFL picks for the game have given a slight favor to the road team.
This betting preview has got you covered with the NFL odds, betting trends and best NFL picks for the Week 5 Buccaneers vs Bears matchup on Thursday Night Football.
NFL Picks, NFL Odds and NFL Props | Buccaneers vs Bears
Buccaneers vs Bears Game Info
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, 1-1 Away) vs. Chicago Bears (3-1, 1-1 Home)
Date: Thursday, Oct. 8, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
Venue: Soldier Field — Chicago, IL
Coverage: NFL Network, FOX
Attendance: No in-person attendance allowed
Buccaneers vs Bears NFL Odds
All odds taken from Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: TB -3; O/U 45
Moneyline: TB: (-230) | CHI: (+190)
Spread: TB: -5 (-110) | CHI: +5 (-110)
Total: 44 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Buccaneers vs Bears Overview
It was far from the defensive slugfest that many sharp bettors expected, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dispatched the Los Angeles Chargers 38-31 in Week 4 to earn their third straight win. Despite a receiving corps that is far less than 100% in terms of health, Tom Brady still managed to throw five touchdown passes in the win. Sunday’s showing was perhaps just what many Buccaneers fans had envisioned and hoped for when Brady announced he was signing in Tampa Bay. The Bucs have seen NFL odds line movement in their favor for this week’s game as a result.
The Bucs will look to keep their winning streak going in Chicago on Thursday night. They are hoping to get running back Leonard Fournette back for Thursday’s game, but who Brady’s primary targets will be is very much uncertain. Chris Godwin will miss his third game of the season and O.J. Howard was lost for the year last week to an Achilles injury. Both Mike Evans and Scotty Miller played through injuries in Week 4 and neither was a participant in practice on Tuesday. The Buccaneers may be dialing up the old Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski connection out of necessity on Thursday.
Optimism was high that the Bears offense would finally get things turned around with the QB switch from Mitchell Trubisky to Nick Foles. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case in Week 4’s game against the Indianapolis Colts. Foles had 249 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception, but Chicago could not get anything going on the ground, evidenced in David Montgomery’s 27 rushing yards.
What the Bears do have going for them is defense. Despite only scoring 11 points against Indianapolis, the Bears were never truly out of the game, given that they only surrendered 19. With the Buccaneers also sporting an impressive defense, points could very well be at a premium on Thursday. This is reflected in the game having one of the lowest totals among all Week 5 NFL odds.
Buccaneers vs Bears Betting Trends
- Buccaneers 2020 Betting Trends: 2-2 ATS; 3-1 to the Over
- Bears 2020 Betting Trends: 2-2 ATS; 2-2 to the Over
- The outright winner has also covered the spread in each of the last seven head-to-head meetings between the Buccaneers and Bears (TB 3-4; CHI 4-3).
- The home team has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the Buccaneers and Bears.
- The over has hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings between the Buccaneers and Bears.
Buccaneers vs Bears Stats
- Tampa Bay has averaged 30.0 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 8 in the NFL)
- Tampa Bay has surrendered 23.0 PPG this season (Tied for No. 8 in the NFL)
- Chicago has averaged 21.2 PPG this season (No. 25 in the NFL)
- Chicago has surrendered 20.2 PPG this season (No. 7 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Props
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire Week 5 slate. Here is one of my favorites for Thursday’s Buccaneers vs. Bears game.
Given the strong defensive secondaries that both the Buccaneers and Bears possess, I am not anticipating a ton of useful fantasy football production to come from this game. With a lack of healthy pass-catchers, Tom Brady will be hard-pressed to achieve greater than 19.5 Fantasy points. I also would expect Mike Evans to come in under 16.5. Even if he plays, he will be far less than 100% and could struggle mightily in this matchup. I also project Nick Foles to come in under 16.5 Fantasy points, with the very real possibility that he throws an interception or two. I won’t bet against Allen Robinson though. Chicago’s lead wideout is simply too talented. He is the one player who I like in this prop to go over the number.
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Buccaneers vs Bears NFL Picks and NFL Odds
The Bucs enter Thursday’s game with significant injury concerns throughout the offense. The Bears come in with an offense that, although mostly healthy, is yet to find a consistent identity this season. It seems unlikely that either team will be scoring in bunches, especially with the strong defenses on both sides.
Through the first four weeks of the season, the Bears and Buccaneers rank 7th and 8th respectively in points allowed per game at 20.2 and 23.0 respectively. The two teams are also both ranked in the top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency, with Tampa Bay ranked 2nd overall and Chicago 6th (Football Outsiders). Add in the quick turnaround to play on Thursday night, and this game screams under. With the opening total of 45 trickling down throughout the week, this only confirms that the under is the correct play. The value isn’t as good as it was at the opening, but it is still a play at the current line of 44.
Given the line moves back toward the Buccaneers, I am also sharp on the Bears catching five here. Tampa Bay simply has too many key injuries to be laying this large a number in what projects to be a defensive slugfest.
Picks: Bears +5; Under 44 Total Points (Both -110 at Bovada Sportsbook)
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