While there has been plenty of offense in the American League Division Series matchups thus far, the opposite can be said regarding the NLDS between the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves. After yesterday’s win by the Braves, the two teams have combined to score just nine total runs through the first three games. That’s just a half run more than the MLB betting total for Tuesday afternoon’s Game 4. The Braves have been tabbed as favorites as they look to close out this series on their home field.
This MLB betting preview for Brewers vs Braves NLDS Game 4 includes game info, projected starting pitchers, betting odds, trends and a prediction for this series-opening matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview and Prediction | MLB Playoffs Game 4
NLDS Game 4 (ATL leads series 2-1)
Milwaukee Brewers (95-67, 50-31 Away) vs. Atlanta Braves (88-73, 42-38Home)
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2021
Time: 5:07 p.m. EST
Venue: Truist Park — Atlanta, GA
Brewers vs Braves Starting Pitchers
Brewers: Eric Lauer (7-5, 3.19 ERA)
Braves: Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA)
Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Brewers have now gotten three quality starts from their elite trio of pitchers in this NLDS. Yet, Milwaukee now must win each of the next two games just to advance on. The problem for the NL Central Division champs in this MLB betting series has been a lack of offense. Through three games, Milwaukee has totaled just 16 hits as a team. For comparison, that’s how many the Chicago White Sox had in Game 3 of their ALDS matchup alone! Milwaukee had a prime scoring opportunity in the 5th inning of Monday’s game but failed to bring home a single run en route to being shut out for the second straight contest. Willy Adames had two of the Brewers’ five hits in Game 3. As a team, Milwaukee struck out nine times.
Further complicating matters for Craig Counsell in today’s do-or-die Game 4 is that he has now burned up all three of his primary starters. The Brewers would undoubtedly feel a lot more confident sending Eric Lauer out to start today with a 2-1 series lead. Given that they trail instead, expect the veteran southpaw to have a very short leash. Lauer was solid enough during the regular season, posting a 3.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. However, he failed to make it any further than three innings in his lone start against the Braves back in May. Lauer allowed two homers and three runs on four hits in that game while recording just nine outs.
Atlanta Braves Preview
After watching starter Ian Anderson escape trouble in the top half of the 5th innings, the Braves’ offense went to work in the bottom of the frame. Joc Pederson proved to be the Game 3 hero, blasting a pinch-hit three-run homer that drove in all three of Atlanta’s runs in the win. For as dominant as the Brewers pitching staff was all year, the Braves have one-upped them thus far in the NLDS. Anderson was one of a few pitchers who received help from the defense behind him on Monday. The Braves came up with several spectacular fielding plays to prevent the Brewers from scoring for the second consecutive game. One of those was by shortstop Dansby Swanson, who also had a hit and scored on Pederson’s homer. Adam Duvall knocked a pair of hits for Atlanta.
It wasn’t until late Tuesday morning that manager Brian Snitker announced his starting pitchers for this afternoon’s MLB betting matchup. The Braves will go back to Game 1 starter Charlie Morton as they attempt to close out this NLDS at home. Although he took the loss last Friday, Morton dominated the Brewers lineup for the majority of his six-plus innings. He allowed just three total hits and the two runs that proved to be the difference in a 2-1 defeat. Morton struck out nine and certainly has plenty of experience pitching in key postseason spots after last year’s World Series run with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Brewers vs Braves MLB Betting Odds
Moneyline: MIL: (+115) | ATL: (-140)
Run Line: MIL: +1.5 (-165) | ATL: -1.5 (+135)
Total: 8.5 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
Public (Spread) Betting via Odds Shark: MIL: (43%) | ATL: (57%)
Brewers vs Braves MLB Betting Trends
- Brewers are just 1-6 SU in their last seven games.
- Braves are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games.
- Braves are 6-1 SU in their last seven home games.
- The total has gone under in six of the Braves’ last seven games.
- Four of the last five Brewers vs Braves head-to-head matchups have gone under the total.
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Brewers vs Braves Stats
- Milwaukee is averaging 4.48 runs per game (RPG) this season (No. 15 in the MLB).
- Milwaukee is surrendering 3.82 RPG this season (No. 3 in the MLB).
- Atlanta is averaging 4.86 RPG this season (No. 8 in the MLB).
- Atlanta is surrendering 4.01 RPG this season (No. 5 in the MLB).
Brewers vs Braves Weather Report
Wind: 2 MPH (blowing in from left)
Brewers vs Braves Prediction
The Brewers vs Braves MLB betting prediction uses NumberFire’s probability model. They give Atlanta a 57.8% chance to win Game 4 of this NLDS matchup.