Forecasting fantasy football results is very similar to forecasting the weather, which I have been doing for over 30 years. There is always a range of outcomes possible in fantasy football forecasting, just like in weather forecasting.
For a longer explanation of our Range of Outcomes Theory for fantasy football, CLICK HERE.
List of Data Needed
I have come up with a simple formula to follow for projecting a player’s value. I will give you the list without going into detail on why these factors were chosen and others omitted…
- Last three years of rankings
- Significant roster changes, plus or minus
- Changes to coaching plans/offensive concept
- Changes to defense on player’s team
- Top-10 weeks rating based on last two years
- Specialized fantasy football tool — combines consistency with big play potential
- Age of player
- Injury history and potential
Projecting DeAndre Hopkins’ Fantasy Value
DeAndre Hopkins
Rank: WR1 — ADP 1.06 — Range 1.01 to 1.11
- Finished 2nd and 1st in points the last two seasons
- Will Fuller and Keke Coutee back healthy
- No major changes
- Changes to 12th-ranked defense probably even out
- Ranked 3rd
- Ranked 2nd
- Age 27 season, all players in top ten within five years of that age
- Only missed one game in six seasons
Every possible piece of data analyzed shows another terrific year ahead for Hopkins. His share of the targets decreased in 2018 relative to his percentage and total in 2017, yet his fantasy production increased. One could even argue that a healthy Fuller and Coutee could make double teaming Hopkins next to impossible this year.
Forecast
Ceiling — WR1 | Floor — WR5 | Most Likely — WR2
Barring an unforeseen injury, is there anyone more reliable right now in fantasy football at at the position than the guy they call Nuk? Three or four guys could possibly outscore him this year, but all of them have a higher range of outcomes for one reason or another. Hopkins has even performed well with average to below average quarterbacks in the past, so he is insulated against an injury to his starting passer, unlike other contenders for the top spot.
More Articles
Forecasting Saquon Barkley’s Fantasy Value
