Forecasting fantasy football results is very similar to forecasting the weather, which I have been doing for over 30 years. There is always a range of outcomes possible in fantasy football forecasting, just like in weather forecasting.
For a longer explanation of our Range of Outcomes Theory for fantasy football, CLICK HERE.
List of Data Needed
I have come up with a simple formula to follow for projecting a player’s value. I will give you the list without going into detail on why these factors were chosen and others omitted…
- Last three years of rankings
- Significant roster changes, plus or minus
- Changes to coaching plans/offensive concept
- Changes to defense on player’s team
- Top-10 weeks rating based on last two years
- Specialized fantasy football tool — combines consistency with big play potential
- Age of player
- Injury history and potential
Projecting Damien Williams’ Fantasy Value
Rank: RB12 — ADP 2.08 — Range 2.01 to 3.05
- Finished 48th with only four full games, never full time in career
- Carlos Hyde added and rookie Darwin Thompson
- No major changes
- Defense has to be better with major changes after finishing last
- Ranked 41st
- Ranked 24th
- Age 27 season, no impact, all top ten players age 27 and younger
- Nagging injuries slowed him down early in pro career
Damien Williams is one of the toughest calls for the 2019 season. He was the second man up for the Chiefs late last year, when Kareem Hunt was suspended and then released. In the playoffs when Spencer Ware returned, Andy Reid stayed with D-Will. Reid is one of the more fantasy friendly coaches around when it comes to the running back position. Williams is also a solid back out of the backfield and takes care of the ball, making him a good three-down back.
Ceiling — RB6 | Floor — RB28 | Most Likely — RB12
Last year, the position ranked RB5 when you add up all the starters’ stats, discounting their part time performances early in the year. Since Williams is not as explosive as Hunt, his ceiling has to be at least one spot lower, even with a better defense that might allow the running game to be used more instead of being in passing shootouts every week. If everything goes close to perfect for Williams, he will only end up around his ADP of RB8, which makes him a risky gamble this year given his ADP.