This weekend’s AFC Championship will be a cold one, with temperatures expecting to be in the twenties, but wind chill dropping far below that. Expected MVP Patrick Mahomes will be the one with home field advantage, but will the Texas boy hold up in the conditions? On the other side stands Tom Brady, who is looking to reach his third straight Super Bowl. We certainly are not questioning if the cold will be affecting him.
The King of Cold
Tom Brady’s track record in the cold speaks for itself. In games under 30 degrees, the veteran is 24-4, but when the weather drops below 20, he has lost just one time. Sure, many of these games were at home and plenty included deflated footballs that were easier to grip, but it is impressive nonetheless. It shows the mental toughness that Patriots teams bring this time of year.
Bet on the Underdogs?
The Patriots will enter the game as three-point underdogs, which makes sense. They will be traveling to a hostile stadium to face the expected MVP of this season. Oh yeah, the Chiefs are also the more talented team top to bottom. If we are looking at players, matchups and stats, there’s no question, the Chiefs seem like the easy bet. But a bet on the favorite would be a bet against history.
New England is 7-1 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games as underdogs. Bill Belichick and the Patriots are at their best when they are overlooked, and they know how to exploit weaknesses in the biggest of games; just look at last week.
If this game is going to be cold and windy, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Patriots grind clock with the running game and dink-and-dunk passing, which has always been their strength. This game will likely come down to the team that can control the clock and convert short yardage situations, and if the Patriots are doing that, it keeps the high-powered Chiefs offense off the field. It will surely be tough sledding, but this likely is their best bet to continue improving their record in cold weather and reach their fourth Super Bowl in as many seasons.
Patriots: +3 (+100)
Chiefs: -3 (-120)
Over/Under: 56 (-110)
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