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Texas vs Washington Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Alamo Bowl

The nightcap to Thursday’s college football action features one of the most prominent matchups of the bowl season. The Texas Longhorns will be seeking to win the Alamo Bowl for the third time in the last four years when they take on the Washington Huskies. After narrowly missing out on playing in their respective conference title games, both teams figure to be highly motivated. The Texas vs Washington odds and college football betting picks favor the Big 12 representative by a narrow margin.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Texas vs Washington prediction for the Alamo Bowl matchup.

Texas vs Washington Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Alamo Bowl
Texas Longhorns (8-4, 6-3 Big 12) vs. Washington Huskies (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12)
Date: Thursday, December 29, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. EST
Venue: Alamodome — San Antonio, TX
Coverage: ESPN

Texas turned plenty of heads early in the season, albeit in a losing effort. Despite falling short, the Longhorns exceeded expectations in a one-point home loss to Alabama. Unfortunately, Steve Sarkisian’s team was plagued by inconsistency during Big 12 Conference play. After a bad loss to Texas Tech in their league opener, the Longhorns won three straight including a 49-0 demolition of rival Oklahoma. Texas closed the regular season by winning three of four with the only loss being to TCU.

Washington was also able to make a statement in the non-conference play of the season with a dominant win over Michigan State. After a poor start to the Pac-12 portion of the schedule, the Huskies won each of their final six games. The surge included wins over Oregon State, Oregon and rival Washington State in the Apple Cup. An inexplicable loss to lowly Arizona State in early October was all that prevented Kalen DeBoer’s team from playing for a conference title and possibly making noise at the national level as well.

Michael Penix Jr. Texas vs Washington prediction odds college football betting picks Alamo Bowl game predictions
Credit: Jacob Snow/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Texas vs Washington College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Texas vs Washington can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: TEX: (-155) | WASH: (+135)
Point Spread: TEX: -3 (-112) | WASH: +3 (-108)
Total: 67.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

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College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Alamo Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Texas.98 (8)1.06 (16).83 (10)
Washington.55 (20)1.59 (5)-.37 (89)
  • Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Longhorns’ last five games overall.
  • Longhorns are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games against Pac-12 Conference opponents.
  • Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
  • The UNDER is 6-0-1 in the Huskies’ last seven games against opponents ranked lower than them in the AP/CFP Top 25.
  • Huskies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against Big 12 Conference opponents.
  • Big 12 teams are 10-3 both straight up and ATS in the last 13 editions of the Alamo Bowl.

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Texas vs Washington Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

There’s no denying the fact that the Alamo Bowl will essentially be a road game for Washington. Bettors can bank on Texas fans packing the Alamodome full as was the case when the Longhorns won this game in 2019 and ’20. That being said, the Huskies proved that they are capable of winning in hostile environments last month when they defeated both Oregon and Washington State in true road games.

While many sharps have been backing the Longhorns with their college football betting picks throughout the season, the Texas vs Washington odds have actually moved in the Huskies’ favor relative to the opening line. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and head coach Kalen DeBoer proved to be a perfect match in their first year together in Seattle. Washington’s explosive offense finished the regular season ranked fifth in adjusted efficiency and sixth in scoring at 39.7 points per game.

With Penix having announced several weeks ago that he would skip the 2023 NFL Draft and return to school, Washington is on track to have a complete roster for Thursday’s bowl game. Receivers Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan both went over the 1,000-yard mark for the season. They figure to be more than capable of challenging a Texas defense that has been inconsistent against the pass this year.

On the other side of the ball, Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers will be the focal point. With star running back Bijan Robinson opting out to prep for the NFL Draft, the onus will be on Ewers and receivers such as Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington to carry the load.

Statistically speaking, the Texas passing attack figures to be more than capable of doing damage against what is a porous Washington secondary. However, it’s fair to question whether Ewers will consistently be given enough time to stand in the pocket and make throws down the field. The Huskies’ defensive front averaged 2.8 sacks per game and could have its way against a relatively young Longhorns’ offensive line.

WASHINGTON COVERS will be our official college football betting Texas vs Washington prediction for the Alamo Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Texas a 75.1% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Washington +3 (-108 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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