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Oklahoma vs Florida State Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Cheez-It Bowl

Orlando is the site of Thursday’s second college football bowl game. This year’s Cheez-It Bowl matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Florida State Seminoles is certainly an interesting one. These two prominent programs were only able to finish mid-pack in their respective conferences. However, both offenses pack quite a punch, leading many to predict a shootout with their college football betting picks. The Oklahoma vs Florida State odds have made the relatively local team a decisive favorite.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Oklahoma vs Florida State prediction for the Cheez-It Bowl matchup.

Oklahoma vs Florida State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Cheez-It Bowl
Oklahoma Sooners (6-6, 3-6 Big 12) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-3, 5-3 ACC)
Date: Thursday, December 29, 2022
Time: 5:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, FL
Coverage: ESPN

It was a trying first year in Norman for Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables. After getting off to a 3-0 start, the Sooners lost each of their first three Big 12 Conference games. The low point came in the form of an embarrassing 49-0 shutout loss to rival Texas in the Red River Showdown. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel was forced to miss that game with a concussion. The Sooners were able to get their sixth win and extend what is now a 24-year bowl game streak by beating Oklahoma State in the penultimate game of the regular season.

Florida State started the season off with a thrilling win over LSU on a neutral field. That victory arguably looks even more impressive now given what LSU went on to do in SEC play. After enduring a three-game losing streak in early October, the Seminoles were arguably playing better than any of their ACC cohorts down the stretch. Mike Norvell’s team closed out the regular season by winning five straight, scoring at least 38 points in each of those games. The run included a thrilling win over Florida in the finale.

Jordan Travis Oklahoma vs Florida State prediction, odds, college football betting picks Cheez-It Bowl game predictions
Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma vs Florida State College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Oklahoma vs Florida State can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: OU: (+280) | FSU: (-350)
Point Spread: OU: +9.5 (-105) | FSU: -9.5 (-115)
Total: 65 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

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College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Cheez-It Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Oklahoma.40 (29).70 (28).21 (43)
Florida State.83 (11)1.38 (8).40 (34)
  • Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Sooners’ last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
  • Seminoles are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • Five of the Seminoles’ last six games following an ATS loss have stayed UNDER the total.
  • Spanning the last five years, 13 of the Seminoles’ 18 non-conference games have gone OVER the total.
  • Dating back to 2001, Sooners are 3-0 both straight up and ATS in three previous head-to-head matchups against the Seminoles.

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Oklahoma vs Florida State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

There’s an argument to be made that the matchup between the Florida State offense and the Oklahoma defense is one of the biggest mismatches of the entire bowl season. The Seminoles come in ranked eighth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th in scoring offense at 35.2 points per game. While one has to believe that Brent Venables will build up the Oklahoma defense in the long run, it takes more than one year at the helm to get things turned around.

Digging into this matchup further, it’s clear that Florida State’s Jordan Travis could present a major problem for a Sooners defense that struggles against dual-threat quarterbacks. The Seminoles also have three quality running backs in Trey Benson, Lawrance Toafili and Treshaun Ward. Add in the threat of Travis and you are looking at an offense that averaged over 200 rushing yards per game. 

Oklahoma had issues stopping the run all season to the tune of allowing 189.0 yards per game. With lineman Jalen Redmond opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft, it’s tough to envision the OU defense being able to contain the Seminoles’ ground game.

On the other side of the ball, Sooners’ QB Dillon Gabriel could be a sitting duck in the pocket as both of the Sooners’ starting tackles have opted out. The same can be said of leading rusher Eric Gray while receiver Theo Wease entered the college football transfer portal. As a result, Marvin Mims is the only primary weapon on track to play in the bowl game.

Making matters worse for the shorthanded Oklahoma offense is the fact that Seminoles defensive end Jared Verse and safety Jammie Robinson are both committed on track to play in Thursday’s game despite already having declared for the 2023 NFL Draft. Add in what figures to be a pro-Florida State crowd at Camping World Stadium in Orlando and laying the points is the best option for bettors.

FLORIDA STATE COVERS will be our official college football betting Oklahoma vs Florida State prediction for the Cheez-It Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Florida State a 65.2% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Florida State -9.5 (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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