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South Point 400 NASCAR Odds, NASCAR Picks, and Betting Trends

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs move to the Round of 12 this weekend with the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. With four more playoff drivers set to be eliminated in three weeks’ time, those still in the hunt for the Cup Championship will look to start the second round off with a strong showing. This will mark the second time NASCAR has run in the Sin City this year. The NASCAR odds for Sunday’s race heavily favor the drivers with recent success at the track.  This article contains race info, driver statistics, track information, and best NASCAR picks to get you more than set for the South Point 400.

Brad Keselowski has favorable NASCAR odds for the South Point 400
Credit: AP Photo/Isaac Brekken

South Point 400 Race Info

Location: Las Vegas, NV
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Start Time: 7 p.m. EST
Coverage: NBCSN
Length: 400 miles
Stages: Stage 1
Pole Sitter: Kevin Harvick
Defending Champion: Martin Truex Jr.

South Point 400 NASCAR Odds

Odds Courtesy of MyBookie Sportsbook

2020 has been the year of Kevin Harvick. The Stewart-Haas No. 4 team is now one win away from double-digit victories on the season after last week’s triumph at Bristol Motor Speedway. The dominant regular season Harvick put together has continued right into the Cup Playoffs. Two victories in the three Round of 16 races have Harvick a full 19 points clear of Denny Hamlin in the standings as the second round begins. Barring the unforeseen, he is already a near-lock to advance to the Round of 8, but don’t think for a minute he won’t be racing all-out. At +350 odds, Harvick is the odds-on favorite to win the South Point 400.

Looking at the odds to win behind Harvick, recent success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a noticeable theme. Along with Harvick, playoff drivers with multiple wins at Las Vegas include Martin Truex Jr. (2), Joey Logano (2), and Brad Keselowski (3). The NASCAR odds for the South Point 400 have those three drivers priced at +550, +700, and +750 respectively. Denny Hamlin (+600) and Chase Elliott (+700) have never won at Las Vegas, but both are expected to be on contention on Sunday given the strong overall seasons each has had. Kyle Busch (+800), owner of one career victory in the Sin City, rounds out the seven drivers with odds shorter than +1000.

South Point 400 NASCAR odds

South Point 400 Driver Statistics

Refer to the lists below for updated driver statistics from both the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season and previous races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 12 Points Standings and Driver Stats

Credit: ESPN

Average Finishing Position in 2020

(Drivers with full time Cup Series status)

  1. Kevin Harvick: 6.2
  2. Denny Hamlin: 9.6
  3. Brad Keselowski: 10.3
  4. Martin Truex Jr.: 11.9
  5. Aric Almirola: 12.1
  6. Chase Elliott: 12.6
  7. Joey Logano: 12.7
  8. Kyle Busch: 13.3
  9. Kyle Busch: 14.1
  10. Clint Bowyer: 14.1

Average Finishing Position at Las Vegas

(Active drivers with 3+ starts at the track)

  1. Joey Logano: 8.0
  2. Ryan Blaney: 10.0
  3. Brad Keselowski: 11.3
  4. Martin Truex Jr.: 11.4
  5. Jimmie Johnson: 11.6
  6. Matt Kenseth: 12.7
  7. Kyle Busch: 12.8
  8. Kevin Harvick: 13.9
  9. Denny Hamlin: 14.0
  10. Austin Dillon: 14.7

Driver Rating in 2020

Credit: Motor Racing Network

Driver Rating at Las Vegas

Credit: Motor Racing Network

*The Driver Rating formula combines Wins, Finishes, Top-15 Finishes, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps and Lead-Lap Finish. Maximum score per race is 150 points*

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Overview

Las Vegas Motor Speedway aerial view

NASCAR began running at Las Vegas in 1998. The 1.5-mile track has banking up to 20 degrees and compares most similarly to Kentucky and Kansas. Tire setup tends to be different than other 1.5-mile tracks on the NASCAR circuit, and it can be tough to hit the right combination. While practice speeds tend to be a reliable indicator of actual race performance, that goes out the window for this race with no practice or qualifying taking place due to COVID-19 protocols.

The other element to consider at Las Vegas is the temperature. While the spring race (won by Joey Logano) had temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s throughout, Sunday’s forecast suggests temperatures could be in the mid to upper 90’s when the green flag drops.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Betting Trends

Brad Keselowski has been excellent at Las Vegas in recent years. The last ten races have seen him, post an average finish of 6.1 to go along with his 3 victories. Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano have both enjoyed recent success as well. Pole sitter and race favorite Kevin Harvick runs well at LVMS, but his last win came back in March of 2015.

South Point 400 NASCAR Odds and Best NASCAR Picks

Race Winner: Brad Keselowski (+750 at MyBookie Sportsbook)

Looking back at previous Las Vegas races, the NASCAR odds for the South Point 400 reflect the fact that the same core group of drivers tends to emerge victoriously. With this in mind, I will take Brad Keselowski to win on Sunday, given that his +750 odds are the longest of the bunch. This is actually a bit surprising given that he has the more wins at as Vegas than any of the other contenders, including a victory in this very race just two years ago. While his driver rating at the track is lower than those of Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Martin Truex Jr., he has a better rating than each of those drivers except for Harvick in 2020.

Harvick (+350) and Truex Jr. (+550) would be the other two names I would consider. Given that they have the shortest odds on the board, a bet on Keselowski is perfectly reasonable and offers you more bang for your buck at that.

Other Picks

Top 3 Finish: Kevin Harvick | +125
Top 10 Finish: Austin Dillon | +115
Best Finishing Position Matchup: Martin Truex Jr. (vs. Kevin Harvick) | +100
Best Finishing Position Matchup: Tyler Reddick (vs. Matt DiBenedetto) | +100
Team of Race Winner: Team Penske | +225

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