Conference tournaments may be taking place all across the country, but it’s hard to top the action we have seen in Las Vegas at the Mountain West Tournament. After a thrilling Quarterfinal Round, the first of Friday’s two semifinal games will feature the 5-seed San Jose State Spartans taking on the 1-seed San Diego State Aztecs. The San Jose State vs San Diego State college basketball betting picks express confidence that the regular-season champs will be able to advance to the championship game.
The following game preview provides the college basketball betting odds, trends and KenPom ratings before sharing our official San Jose State vs San Diego State prediction for the Mountain West Tournament semifinal matchup.
San Jose State vs San Diego State Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks
Mountain West Tournament Semifinal
(5) San Jose State Spartans (20-12, 10-8 MWC) vs. (1) San Diego State Aztecs (25-6, 15-3 MWC)
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Thomas & Mack Center — Las Vegas, NV
Coverage: CBSSN
San Jose State Spartans Preview
What coach Tim Miles has done since taking over San Jose State basketball in 2021 is nothing short of incredible. The Spartans have been a losing program for years now. Thursday’s quarterfinal win over Nevada was significant in that it was SJSU’s first-ever Mountain West Tournament victory. It was also the Spartans’ 20th win on the year marking the first time since the 1980-81 season that they have reached such standards. Omari Moore led the way with 26 points and 10 assists in the overtime win.
San Diego State Aztecs Preview
San Diego State came into the Mountain West Tournament as one of only two teams in the conference assured of a March Madness bid. Of course, as the top seed, the Aztecs have their sights set on capturing their third conference title in the last six years. Brian Dutcher’s squad took the first step toward doing so on Thursday with a quarterfinal win over Colorado State. That said, the three-point margin of victory over a mediocre opponent was much closer than many were expecting.
San Jose State vs San Diego State College Basketball Betting Picks and Odds
College basketball betting odds for San Jose State vs San Diego State can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.
Moneyline: SJSU: (+320) | SDSU: (-400)
Point Spread: SJSU: +8 (-107) | SDSU: -8 (-113)
Total: 126 — Over: (-112) | Under: (-108)
College Basketball KenPom Ratings
The following table displays the KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings for the two teams involved in Friday’s first Mountain West Tournament Semifinal. In addition to overall efficiency margin, offensive, defensive and tempo ratings are included.
| Team | Overall AdjEM (Rk) | AdjO (Rk) | AdjD (Rk) | AdjT (Rk) |
| San Jose State | +8.34 (90) | 111.4 (76) | 103.1 (121) | 62.9 (352) |
| San Diego State | +19.59 (15) | 112.9 (52) | 93.3 (12) | 66.1 (249) |
San Jose State vs San Diego State College Basketball Betting Trends
- Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win.
- The UNDER is 7-2-1 in the Spartans’ last ten games against teams with a winning record.
- Aztecs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
- Each of the Aztecs’ last six games has stayed UNDER the total.
- The UNDER is 7-2-1 in the last ten San Jose State vs San Diego State head-to-head meetings.
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San Jose State vs San Diego State Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks
These two teams only met once during the regular season, and San Diego State was able to earn a convincing 21-point victory on its home floor. Given the state of both programs in recent years, bettors likely won’t be surprised to learn that San Jose State hasn’t beaten the Aztecs outright in quite some time. Even more alarming is the fact that SDSU has won nine of the last ten encounters by 10+ points.
Can the Spartans pull a rabbit out of the hat on a neutral floor in Las Vegas? An outright win may be a lot to ask, but one has to be somewhat optimistic about their chances of covering the large college basketball betting spread. Yesterday’s tightly-contested quarterfinal game continued a season-long trend in which San Diego State has failed to win decisively away from home. In fact, the Aztecs only have one double-digit conference road win this season.
The fact that SDSU has struggled to get past some of the Mountain West’s worst teams on the road bodes well for San Jose State. The Spartans have a star guard in Omari Miller who is capable of taking over a game at the offensive end. Provided that they can prevent Matt Bradley and Darrion Trammell from getting hot, the Spartans should be able to hang around in this game.
It’s also worth highlighting the fact that neither team tends to play at a fast pace. San Jose State in particular ranks 352nd out of 369 Division I teams in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. While this has led to a four-point move on the Under as far as tonight’s game total is concerned, a slower pace of play also figures to bode well for the underdog.
SAN JOSE STATE COVERS will be our official college basketball betting San Jose State vs San Diego State prediction for the Mountain West Tournament Semifinal Round matchup.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives San Diego State an 85.1% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: San Jose State +8 (-107 at BetOnline Sportsbook)
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