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Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Odds, Trends and MLB Betting Preview

These two NL East Division rivals have been getting very familiar with one another over the past week. After a three-game set last week in the City of Brotherly Love, the Philadelphia Phillies continue their stay in the Big Apple tonight against the New York Mets. Tonight’s matchup marks the third matchup in this four-game series. The MLB betting oddsmakers view this Phillies vs Mets matchup very evenly, with the road squad getting a slight nod on the moneyline.


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Phillies vs Mets Game Info

Philadelphia Phillies (6-5, 1-4 Away) vs. New York Mets (4-3, 3-1 Home)
Date:
Wednesday, Apr. 14, 2021
Start Time:
7:10 p.m. ET
Location: Citi Field — Queens, NY
Coverage: MLB Network
Starting Pitchers: PHI: (Zack Wheeler, 1-1) | NYM: (David Peterson, 0-1)

Brandon Nimmo MLB betting Mets vs Phillies prediction betting trends odds
Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Phillies vs Mets Betting Odds

Moneyline: PHI: (-117) | NYM: (-103)
Run Line: PHI: -1.5 (+140) | NYM: +1.5 (-160)
Total: 8 — Over: (-120) | Under: (+100)

Phillies vs Mets MLB Betting Overview

Phillies Outlook

After being the last MLB team to suffer a loss, the Phillies have come crashing back to the pack in the NL East. After dropping two of three to the Atlanta Braves this past weekend, the Phillies suffered a doubleheader sweep at the hands of the Mets yesterday. Ace Aaron Nola was outdueled by Marcus Stroman in the nightcap, a game that saw the Phils only record six total hits.

Former Met Zack Wheeler will take the mound as the starter for Philadelphia in tonight’s MLB betting matchup. In two starts this season, Wheeler has piled up 14 strikeouts in 11.2 innings pitched. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares in the first start against his former team of 2021. The Phillies’ big bats in Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins combined for just a single hit in yesterday’s doubleheader. Didi Gregorius has been swinging the bat well of late, however, with four hits in the last three games.  

Mets Outlook

The Mets emerged over .500 for the first time this season courtesy of yesterday’s doubleheader sweep. It was a balanced offensive approach from New York in both games on Tuesday. After Taijuan Walker piled up 8 strikeouts in just 4.1 innings in the opener, Marcus Stroman tossed six shutout innings in the nightcap. The Mets will look to keep the pedal down against their division rivals in tonight’s MLB betting matchup.

Southpaw David Peterson will take the ball as New York’s starter. He got roughed up badly by the same Phillies lineup he’ll face tonight in his only prior start of the season, allowing six earned runs on seven hits and a pair of homers. The Mets will hope Peterson can bounce back on the home mound tonight. Brandon Nimmo shone brightly in the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader, clubbing three hits and driving in three of the Mets’ four runs.

  • Phillies 2021 Betting Trends: 6-4 Run Line; 7-3 to the Over
  • Mets 2021 Betting Trends: 5-5 Run Line; 2-8 to the Over
  • The Phillies are just 1-5 in their last six games as a road favorite.
  • The Phillies have won nine of their last 13 head-to-head matchups against the Mets.
  • Over the total has cashed in eight of the last 11 head-to-head meetings between the Phillies and Mets in New York.

Phillies vs Mets Stats

  • Philadelphia is averaging 3.73 runs per game (RPG) this season (No. 26 in MLB)
  • Philadelphia is surrendering 3.91 RPG on the season (No. 10 in MLB)
  • New York is averaging 3.43 RPG this season (No. 28 in MLB)
  • New York is surrendering 3.57 RPG (No. 6 in MLB)

Phillies vs Mets Weather Report

According to Forecast.io

Status: Cloudy
Temperature: 61℉
Humidity: 48%
Precipitation: 4%
Wind: 8 MPH (blowing out)

Phillies vs Mets Prediction

The one thing that really stands out to me when looking at the MLB betting odds for this Phillies vs Mets matchup is the discrepancy between the moneyline and run line odds. With the Phillies being such a short outright favorite, I have to admit that I would expect a lot more juice to be required to take the Mets at +1.5 on the run line. Yet, bettors only have to lay -160 to be spotted a run and a half with the home team compared to -103 for an outright New York win.

Looking at this discrepancy in reverse, I’m inclined to like the Phillies as my MLB betting pick for this game. Mets starter David Peterson is a true question mark especially after he was rocked Philadelphia just last week. The Phils have the clear advantage on the mound tonight. It’s also highly unlikely that their bats stay as quiet as they were in yesterday’s doubleheader. I’ll side with the road team in Game 3 of this series.

Pick: Phillies ML (-117)


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