Perhaps one of the less noteworthy NFL betting matchups in Week 5 is this contest between AFC teams with just one win apiece through four weeks. But hey, it is a battle of rookie starting quarterbacks! With that anecdote in mind, it’s honestly somewhat shocking that the media isn’t salivating over this game. At any rate, for the New England Patriots, Sunday’s road tilt against the Houston Texans is widely expected to serve as a get-right spot. For the Texans, it will likely be another miserable afternoon. The NFL betting odds sure think so, as they have labeled the visitors as hefty favorites in advance of this Patriots vs Texans showdown.
Patriots vs Texans Week 5 NFL Betting Preview
NFL Regular Season — Week 5 Game
New England Patriots (1-3, 1-0 Away) vs. Houston Texans (1-3, 1-1 Home)
Date: Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021
Time: 1 p.m. EST
Venue: NRG Stadium — Houston, TX
Coverage: Click here for the stream
New England Patriots Preview
In all honesty, the Patriots could very easily have a record of 3-1 instead of the current 1-3 that the standings show. New England fumbled away a potential Week 1 win against the Miami Dolphins. Most recently, the Patriots outplayed the reigning Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, only to miss a potential game-winning field goal late. If nothing else, the future of the franchise appears to be in good hands. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has looked the part through four games. Week 4 saw Damien Harris and the Pats’ run game completely shut down by the Buccaneers. Jones rose to the occasion, completing 31 of 40 pass attempts for 275 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Given that the Patriots couldn’t generate any sort of run game last week, that led to a number of pass-catchers having a productive game. While the offense lacks any big-name receivers, Bill Belichick has assembled a solid group. Each of Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor had over 50 yards receiving. Running back Brandon Bolden also eclipsed the half-century mark as he takes over the “James White role” out of the backfield. The Patriots’ defense has been solid to begin the year, especially against the pass. Football Outsiders grades them second in adjusted efficiency defending the pass, but only 29th against the run.
Houston Texans Preview
The Texans were massive 17-point NFL betting underdogs for their Week 4 game against the Buffalo Bills. Not only did Houston fail to cover that gigantic spread, but they didn’t even come close. The Texans barely surpassed 100 yards of total offense last week and were shut out 40-0. Rookie QB Davis Mills was no match for a talented Buffalo defense. He threw four interceptions and finished with only 87 yards passing. 47 of those went to Brandin Cooks on five receptions. If the team’s goal is indeed to tank this season away, the sudden switch from Tyrod Taylor to Mills at quarterback is certainly helping their cause.
It doesn’t figure to get any easier for Houston offensively this week against Bill and the viral Steve Belichick’s defense in Sunday’s NFL betting matchup. (Hey, I had to try and generate some excitement in the Texans portion of the article somehow!) While the final score last week was quite ugly, it should be noted that the Texans’ defense actually held its own for a while. They forced the Bills to settle for some field goals early on. Ultimately, the five offensive turnovers were simply too much for the D to overcome.
Patriots vs Texans Odds and Spread
Moneyline: NE: (-450) | HOU: (+350)
Spread: NE: -9.5 (-110) | HOU: +9.5 (-110)
Total: 39.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages via Action Network: NE: (72%) | HOU: (28%)
Patriots vs Texans NFL Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 2-2 ATS and 0-4 to the over this season.
- The Texans are 2-2 ATS and 2-2 to the over this season.
- Ten of the Patriots’ last 12 games have gone under the total.
- Texans are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games.
- Patriots are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 head-to-head matchups against the Texans.
Patriots vs Texans Stats
- New England is averaging 17.8 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 27 in the NFL).
- New England is surrendering 17.5 PPG this season (No. 6 in the NFL).
- Houston is averaging 16.8 PPG this season (T-No. 28 in the NFL).
- Houston is surrendering 29.0 PPG this season (No. 28 in the NFL).
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Patriots vs Texans Prediction
The Patriots vs Texans NFL betting prediction uses the ESPN Football Power Index.
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