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Oregon vs USC Prediction, Odds and Betting Trends for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 action continues on Sunday with four regional semifinal games in both the West and East Regions. The nightcap on a full day of basketball features an all-Pac-12 showdown for the right to advance to the West Regional final. The Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans finished 1-2 in the Pac-12 regular-season standings. The betting oddsmakers have given USC the advantage in advance of the second head-to-head meeting between the teams this season.

The following offers a comprehensive breakdown and betting preview of Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 showdown. Read on for vital game information, team statistics, trends and predictions for the Oregon vs USC matchup.

Oregon vs USC Sweet 16 Game Info

Oregon Ducks (21-6, 14-4 Pac-12) vs. USC Trojans (24-7, 15-5 Pac-12)
Sunday, Mar. 28, 2021
Start Time:
9:45 p.m. ET
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse — Indianapolis, IN
Coverage: TBS

Evan Mobley USC basketball Oregon vs USC prediction Sweet 16 betting
Credit: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Oregon vs USC Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook

Moneyline: ORE: (+110) | USC: (-130)
Point Spread: ORE: +2 (-110) | USC: -2 (-110)
Total: 138 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 | College Basketball Betting Overview

Oregon Basketball Outlook

Oregon certainly faced its fair share of obstacles on the way to a Pac-12 regular-season title this season. The Ducks were forced to endure a lengthy program shutdown to due virus issues, but they came back and still looked like one of the top teams in, dare I call it the underrated Pac-12 Conference. With the Conference of Champions comprising 25% of the Sweet 16 field, that seems like a fair assessment. Oregon caught a break on their way to this point as VCU was forced to forfeit their First Round 7-10 matchup. The Ducks still had to earn their way into the West Region semifinals with a blowout win over 2-seed Iowa. The Hawkeyes simply had no answer for Oregon in the matchup.

Combine a savvy head coach like Dana Altman with a talent-laden roster and you have the makings of an NCAA Tournament darkhorse. The Ducks’ talent was on full display in their romp over Iowa. Senior guard Chris Duarte led the way as he has all year with 23 points, 7 assists and 3 rebounds. He was joined in double figures scoring by LJ Figueroa (21 points, 7 rebounds), Will Richardson (19 points, 7 assists, 6 boards) and Eugene Omoruyi (17 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists). As the box scores for each player suggest, Oregon plays a team-first brand of basketball and gets after it on the glass as well.

Oregon KenPom Ratings

  • Overall Efficiency Margin: +22.16 (No. 16 in NCAA)
  • Offense: 116.8 (No. 10 in NCAA)
  • Defense: 94.7 (No. 50 in NCAA)
  • Tempo: 67.3 (No. 227 in NCAA)

USC Basketball Outlook

Unlike Oregon, USC had to come up with the standard two victories in order to advance to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Not only did the Trojans beat 11-seed Drake and 3-seed Kansas but they ran both opponents out of the gym. After topping the Bulldogs by 16 points, USC pummeled Kansas 85-51 in a Second Round upset that few saw coming. Andy Enfield’s squad finished second only to Oregon in the Pac-12 regular-season standings is littered with talent all over the floor. In several of their conference losses, the Trojan either forgot to show up altogether or simply failed to hit their shots.

USC is led by highly-rated NBA Draft prospect and Pac-12 Conference Player of the Year Evan Mobley. Mobley also took home Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and Freshmen of the Year honors. On top of the league awards, he is now a finalist for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year. Mobley was excellent against Kansas with a 10-point, 13-rebound double-double. That said, he was far from the only Trojan to get in on the act. Brother Isaiah Mobley supplied a team-high 17 points to go along with 8 rebounds and 4 assists. Guards Isaiah White and Tahj Eaddy chipped in 13 and 12 points, respectively. 

USC KenPom Ratings

  • Overall Efficiency Margin: +27.24 (No. 6 in NCAA)
  • Offense: 116.1 (No. 16 in NCAA)
  • Defense: 87.9 (No. 5 in NCAA)
  • Tempo: 67.1 (No. 236 in NCAA)
  • Oregon 2020-21 Betting Trends: 15-12 ATS; 18-9 to the Over
  • USC 2020 Betting Trends: 18-13 ATS; 16-14-1 to the Over
  • Oregon is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
  • USC is 6-0 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
  • USC is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
  • The over is 7-0 in Oregon’s last seven games following an outright win.
  • The under is 5-1-1 in USC’s last seven games as a favorite.
Chris Duarte Oregon basketball Oregon vs USC prediction
Credit: AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Oregon vs USC Stats

  • Oregon is averaging 75.1 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 63 in NCAA)
  • Oregon is surrendering 67.9 PPG on the season (No. 93 in NCAA)
  • USC is averaging 75.0 PPG this season (No. 66 in NCAA)
  • USC is surrendering 64.4 PPG (No. 31 in NCAA)

Oregon vs USC Prediction

As someone who counts the Pac-12 among the leagues I watch and handicap very closely throughout the entire season, I’m admittedly pretty stoked about the conference’s success thus far in the NCAA Tournament. Probably not as excited as Bill Walton, but hey, you get the point. This Sweet 16 rematch between Oregon and USC promises to be a good one. With that said, I’ve been a bit surprised at the verdict that the betting court of public opinion seems to have rendered in advance of the game.

USC deserves full marks for the throttling that they gave Kansas in the Second Round. However, under Bill Self, the Jayhawks have consistently underwhelmed in March Madness going back as far as I can remember. The other thing that analysts seem to be pointing to is the Trojans’ 14-point win over Oregon in the only regular-season. While USC certainly dominated that matchup, rushing to say they’ll do so again on Sunday is a big mistake.

The bottom line for me when it comes to this all-Pac-12 Sweet 16 showdown is that Oregon is the healthiest they’ve been all season. After being ravaged by virus issues, the Ducks are flying the flag at full staff at the perfect time. Chris Duarte can carry the added chip of not being named conference player of the year with him into this game along with his experience. Evan Mobley may be the future NBA star but Duarte is the college senior in his final NCAA Tournament. The Ducks are as live an underdog as you’ll find.

Pick: Oregon ML and +2 (+110 and -110 respectively at Bovada Sportsbook)

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