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Mercury vs Sun Prediction, Injury Report and WNBA Best Bets

One of two WNBA betting matchups scheduled for Thursday evening features the Phoenix Mercury traveling to the east coast to take on the Connecticut Sun. These two teams come into the day with drastically different outlooks. While the Sun have their sights set on potentially jumping up to the No. 1 seed in this year’s playoffs, the Mercury will have their work cut out just to qualify for the postseason. Add in the big names that are listed on Phoenix’s pregame injury report and it’s no wonder that the WNBA betting odds heavily favor the home team with tonight’s Mercury vs Sun prediction.

The following game preview includes our official Mercury vs Sun prediction, the injury report for both teams, WNBA betting odds, key betting trends and much more! But first, let’s take a look at this special welcome offer from BetOnline Sportsbook.

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Mercury vs Sun Prediction, WNBA Betting Odds and Game Info

WNBA Regular Season Game
Phoenix Mercury (13-18, 4-13 Away) vs. Connecticut Sun (21-10, 11-5 Home)
Date: Thursday, August 4, 2022
Time: 7 PM EST
Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena — Uncasville, CT
Coverage: ESPN2

Mercury vs Sun WNBA Betting Game Preview

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Towards the end of July, it looked as though the Mercury just might have some fight left in them. The 2022 season has been littered with distractions off the court for Phoenix. Despite this, back-to-back home wins in impressive fashion had the Merc sitting within three games of .500 exactly one week ago. Then, the Mercury left the friendly confines of the Footprint Center and embarked on a three-game road trip. They promptly suffered blowout losses of 20 and 24 points, with the latter coming against the same Connecticut outfit they will face tonight.

The difference between the Mercury’s play at home compared to on the road this season has been drastic. Phoenix has won nine of 14 home games to date but enters Thursday’s WNBA betting matchup with a 4-13 record on the road. Making matters worse is that star point guard Diana Taurasi left Tuesday’s loss early and is questionable to play tonight with a quadriceps injury. Add in the fact that Diamond DeShields is set to remain sidelined and Phoenix may be without two of its top-4 scorers.

Connecticut Sun Preview

In general, the Sun have been a much more balanced team at both ends of the floor than the Mercury this season. With Phoenix now also having to contend with multiple key injuries, it’s no wonder why the Mercury vs Sun prediction and odds are so heavily tilted in favor of the hosts. Of course, there may be a recency bias rippling through the WNBA betting market as well after watching Connecticut destroy Phoenix just two nights ago. Alyssa Thomas recorded a triple-double in that victory, becoming only the third player in league history to achieve the feat multiple times.

While Thomas was the star of the show on Tuesday, the Sun’s balanced attack was also on full display. Natisha Hiedeman led seven Connecticut players who finished in double figures scoring. Jonquel Jones came up with a 10-point, 10-rebound double-double as well. Whether it was the starters or the reserves, the Sun had little difficulty in dissecting the vulnerable Phoenix defense. Connecticut is quietly now just two games back of Chicago for the top overall seed in the WNBA Playoffs.

Alyssa Thomas Mercury vs Sun prediction WNBA betting odds
Credit: Getty Images

Mercury vs Sun WNBA Betting Odds

All WNBA betting odds for Mercury vs Sun can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: PHX: (+515) | CON: (-655)
Point Spread: PHX: +11.5 (-110) | CON: -11.5 (-110)
Total: 164 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages via VSiN: PHX: (43%) | CON: (57%)

Mercury vs Sun Betting Trends

  • Mercury are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
  • Five of the Mercury’s last six road games have stayed UNDER the total.
  • Sun are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record.
  • The total has gone OVER in each of the Sun’s last four games following a straight up win.
  • Sun are 4-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head matchups against the Mercury.

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

Out: Brittney Griner (personal); Diamond DeShields (hip); Kia Nurse (knee)

Questionable: Diana Taurasi (quadriceps)

Connecticut Sun Injury Report

Out: Bria Hartley (knee); Jasmine Thomas (knee)

Mercury vs Sun Stats

  • Phoenix is averaging 78.7 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 10 in the WNBA).
  • Phoenix is surrendering 75.6 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 1 in the WNBA).
  • Connecticut is averaging 91.5 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 1 in the WNBA).
  • Connecticut is surrendering 83.0 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 8 in the WNBA).

Mercury vs Sun Prediction

To be clear, the Mercury are hardly a team that bettors should be rushing to back at this point in time. However, with the WNBA betting odds listing such a large point spread, the best option for tonight’s Mercury vs Sun prediction is to target the total.

Since the start of July, Phoenix’s offense has been downright dreadful on the road. This trend extends back further than the two recent blowout losses in which the Mercury failed to reach the 70-point threshold. The Mercury have not exceeded 75 points in four of their last five games away from home over the past month. The only outlier to this was a double-overtime affair at Minnesota.

Combine how awful the Mercury have been offensively on the road with the possible absence of Diana Taurasi and it could be an ugly showing yet again on Thursday. The fact that the Sun rank third in both scoring defense and overall defensive rating reflects another obstacle for Phoenix to deal with at the offensive end.

The primary hesitation with this WNBA betting prediction is the fact that the Mercury are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Thus, there is some concern that the Sun could push tonight’s game total over singlehandedly. The two primary counterarguments to this would be the Sun letting off the gas if they get out to a big lead and/or the Mercury upping their effort on defense knowing that they are without two of their top scorers.

Mercury vs Sun Prediction: Under 164 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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