2018 Stats (Rank)
Total Offense: 6,810 Yards (1st)
Offensive Touchdowns: 66 (1st)
Offensive Plays Per Game: 62.3 (23rd)
Pass Attempts + Sacks: 609 (12th)
Rush Attempts: 387 (23rd)
Run/Pass Split: Run – 39% | Pass – 61%
Unaccounted for Targets: 148 (Extra 8.6/game Hill is out)
Unaccounted for Carries: 235
Projected Win Total
The Chiefs’ over/under currently sits at 10.0, after they went 12-4 last season. After the unbelievable performance by Patrick Mahomes, who was essentially a first-year player, regression is expected. The AFC West around the Kansas City has also gotten tougher, which explains the win total being set at 10.
Strength of Schedule
SOS is measured by calculating the fantasy points allowed by each team’s opponents to determine who has the easiest and most difficult fantasy schedules (rank #1 has the easiest schedule).
Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes is the consensus QB1. Even with expected regression, there should be no argument there. The same can be said about the consensus TE1, Travis Kelce. Things get more complicated with the wide receivers. It is looking more and more like Tyreek Hill will not be suspended. If this is the case, the WR3 in PPR last season is undervalued, with a current ADP of WR19. On the opposite side, you would then say Sammy Watkins, who continues to get hyped up and then under-performs, is overvalued, at WR25. It really depends on if there is a punishment. If Hill were to miss time, rookie Mecole Hardman, who was selected as sort of an insurance policy at the same time as Hill was initially punished by the team, would attempt to fill that void and would become really interesting.
Andy Reid and top-performing running backs go together like PB&J. Reid has coached a RB1 in 12 of the 20 seasons he has been a head coach, and Damien Williams looks to be number 13. In five appearances taking over for Kareem Hunt last season, Williams averaged 29.44 fantasy points in PPR scoring, beating out Todd Gurley’s average of 26.6. Currently being drafted as RB14, Williams will look to play above his ADP. Behind him, Carlos Hyde is a notable name, but should not be seen as a threat or a true handcuff.