The Fresno State Bulldogs and the Boise State Broncos have both had to overcome plenty of adversity just to make it to the Mountain West Championship Game. Needless to say, the outlook for Saturday’s showdown is quite different than when the teams battled for the iconic Milk Can Trophy back in October. Bettors certainly have a lot of moving parts to consider when making their Fresno State vs Boise State prediction. While most public college football betting picks are on the home favorite, the spread has notably gotten smaller in the lead-up to the game.
The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Fresno State vs Boise State prediction for the Mountain West Championship Game.
Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
2022 Mountain West Championship Game
Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4, 7-1 MWC) vs. Boise State Broncos (9-3, 8-0 MWC)
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Time: 4 PM EST
Venue: Albertsons Stadium — Boise, ID
Coverage: FOX
Many believed that Fresno State could challenge for a New Year’s Six bowl bid this season. Those dreams dissipated when quarterback Jake Haener got carted off the field in Week 3 with an ankle injury. A loss to Boise State in the annual rivalry game between the schools dropped the Bulldogs to 1-4. However, coach Jeff Tedford managed to rally the troops, and FSU hasn’t lost since. The Bulldogs enter Saturday’s rematch on a seven-game winning streak. In addition, four of the last six wins have come by 27 points or more.
Much like their Mountain West Championship Game counterparts, Boise State also got off to a slow start. An ugly loss to UTEP had many calling for second-year coach Andy Avalos to be fired. Then, the Broncos started winning. BSU has won seven of eight since that late September loss and finished the regular season unbeaten in conference play. Running back George Holani and a highly-experienced defense are two of the main reasons why Boise State is set to play for the MWC title for the fifth time in the last six years.
Fresno State vs Boise State College Football Betting Picks and Odds
All college football betting odds for Fresno State vs Boise State can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.
Moneyline: FSU: (+135) | BSU: (-160)
Point Spread: FSU: +3 (-105) | BSU: -3 (-115)
Total: 55 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
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College Football FEI Ratings
The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Mountain West Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders
| Team | Overall FEI (Rk) | OFEI (Rk) | DFEI (Rk) |
| Fresno State | .11 (59) | .25 (51) | -.08 (64) |
| Boise State | .17 (53) | .19 (55) | .27 (38) |
Fresno State vs Boise State College Football Betting Trends
- Bulldogs are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 road games following a straight up win.
- Each of the Bulldogs’ last four road games has gone OVER the total.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Bulldogs’ last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against Mountain West Conference opponents.
- The total has gone OVER in each of the Broncos’ last five home games.
- Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Betting underdogs are 8-1 ATS in the last nine Fresno State vs Boise State head-to-head matchups.
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Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
The first meeting between rivals Fresno State and Boise State this season came just three weeks after Bulldogs quarterback Jake Haener sustained an ankle injury that ultimately kept him sidelined for over a month. Given how the Bulldogs’ offense struggled in his absence, simply being competitive for three quarters in the battle for the Milk Can Trophy was quite impressive.
Boise State finished the regular season ranked 38th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, one could reasonably argue that the Broncos haven’t faced an offense yet this season that is as capable as that of Fresno State with Haener under center. Injuries along the defensive front could also hurt BSU in its bid to slow down Jordan Mims and the Bulldogs’ rushing attack.
Defensively, Fresno State faces a tough task in trying to slow down Taylen Green, George Holani and the prolific Broncos rushing attack. However, the combination of the Bulldogs’ momentum and the opportunity to exact revenge on a rival cannot be overstated.
FRESNO STATE COVERS will be our official college football betting Fresno State vs Boise State prediction for the Mountain West Championship Game.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Boise State a 69.2% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: Fresno State +3 (-105 at BetOnline Sportsbook)
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