The only blemish on the Georgia Bulldogs’ national championship-winning season a year ago was a loss in the SEC Championship game. Kirby Smart’s troops will have a chance at redemption this weekend when they return to Atlanta to face the LSU Tigers for conference supremacy. Very few people had LSU making it to the SEC title game in their preseason college football betting picks. Given that the Tigers are still viewed as a bit of an upstart, it’s no surprise that the LSU vs Georgia odds are heavily tilted in favor of the Bulldogs.
The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official LSU vs Georgia prediction for the SEC Championship Game.
LSU vs Georgia Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
2022 SEC Championship Game
LSU Tigers (9-3, 6-2 SEC) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (12-0, 8-0 SEC)
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Time: 4 PM EST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, GA
After getting blown out at home by Tennessee in early October, few could’ve predicted that the Tigers would ultimately wind up clinching the SEC West Division with two weeks to spare. QB Jayden Daniels used a massive statistical game against Florida the following week as a launching pad. Wins over Ole Miss and Alabama in subsequent games propelled the Tigers to the top spot in the division. The regular season ended on a sour note last week as LSU’s College Football Playoff hopes met their match in an upset loss to Texas A&M.
Meanwhile, Georgia quite literally waltzed its way through the entirety of the regular season. The SEC East may be the weaker of the conference’s two divisions, but it takes a truly special team to dominate opponents on a weekly basis as the Bulldogs have this season. UGA’s biggest scare actually came against Missouri on the first of October. Since escaping Columbia with a four-point win, Georgia has won every game it’s played by double-digits. The Dawgs have the top defense in the country and a physically-imposing offense led by a veteran quarterback in Stetson Bennett.
LSU vs Georgia College Football Betting Picks and Odds
Moneyline: LSU: (+600) | UGA: (-950)
Point Spread: LSU: +17.5 (-110) | UGA: -17.5 (-110)
Total: 52 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
College Football FEI Ratings
The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this SEC Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders
|Team||Overall FEI (Rk)||OFEI (Rk)||DFEI (Rk)|
|LSU||.76 (12)||1.19 (12)||.70 (17)|
|Georgia||1.50 (1)||1.60 (5)||1.51 (1)|
LSU vs Georgia College Football Betting Trends
- Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played in the month of December.
- Five of the Tigers’ last six games have gone OVER the total.
- Over the last ten years, the Tigers are 28-13-1 ATS when facing an opponent that is coming off a straight up win of 20 points or more.
- Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing fewer than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- The UNDER is 6-1-1 in the Bulldogs’ last eight games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- 13 of the Bulldogs’ last 15 games against efficient defensive teams allowing more than 15.70 yards per point have gone UNDER the total.
- Tigers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings against the Bulldogs.
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LSU vs Georgia Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
To say that everything went badly for LSU in last week’s regular-season finale against Texas A&M would be an understatement. In addition to taking the loss, Jayden Daniels suffered an ankle injury during the game. As he was seen in a walking boot afterward, some questioned whether he would even be available for the SEC Championship Game. Speaking with the media on Thursday, Brian Kelly confirmed that Daniels practiced this week and will play on Saturday.
Of course, the last thing the Tigers can afford in a matchup against a defensive juggernaut like Georgia is for their star quarterback to be hobbled. Recent weeks have seen LSU’s offense revert to some of the inconsistent play that was a major issue early on in the season. It’s hard to envision a massive turnaround against a Bulldogs defense that hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in a game all year.
On the other side of the ball, one cannot dismiss the fact that the Tigers allowed 274 yards rushing to a Texas A&M offense that had been anemic all season long. As such, it’s hard to doubt Georgia’s offensive line in this matchup. The Bulldogs’ rushing attack has been a force all season long. Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards led the way for a ground game that averaged 210.5 yards per contest.
If by some stroke of luck, the Tigers manage to hold up against the run, Stetson Bennett will simply utilize targets like tight end Brock Bowers to pick them apart through the air. Throw in the fact that the Dawgs will be the de facto home team playing in Atlanta and backing Georgia as a contrarian favorite sets up as one of the weekend’s more appealing college football betting picks.
GEORGIA COVERS will be our official college football betting LSU vs Georgia prediction for the SEC Championship Game.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Georgia an 83.0% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: Georgia -17.5 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)