The finale to this week’s NFL Saturday tripleheader pits two teams who are still alive in the AFC postseason chase, albeit with very differing outlooks. The 9-5 Miami Dolphins are set to travel west to the Sin City and battle the 7-7 Las Vegas Raiders. As the current seven-seed in the AFC, the Dolphins control their own destiny to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016. Meanwhile, the Raiders are all but mathematically eliminated at this point, and keeping their faint hopes alive starts with taking care of a team in front of them. The NFL odds and sharp NFL picks for this matchup favor the visitors.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and best NFL picks for Dolphins vs Raiders on Saturday night.
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NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | Dolphins vs Raiders
Dolphins vs Raiders Game Info
Miami Dolphins (9-5, 4-2 Away) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7, 2-5 Home)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 26, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Coverage: NFL Network
Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
Dolphins vs Raiders NFL Odds + NFL Picks
Opening Lines: Dolphins -2.5; O/U
Moneyline: MIA: (-160) | LV: (+140)
Spread: MIA: -3 (-115) | LV: +3 (-105)
Total: 47.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
All odds courtesy of MyBookie Sportsbook
Dolphins vs Raiders Overview
It may not always be pretty, but the Dolphins keep on winning ball games and covering in the NFL picks. At this point, if Brian Flores doesn’t win Coach of the Year, what are we even doing? Miami is operating ahead of schedule, thanks to a potent defense, prolific special teams, and an offense that does just enough. Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t wowed anyone yet, but he isn’t costing the Dolphins games either. Miami has a plethora of offensive reinforcements that could return this week as well in wideouts DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant, running back Myles Gaskin, and tight end Mike Gesicki.
The Raiders are another young team that many believe has overachieved in terms of NFL picks expectations this season. The Achilles’ heel for Jon Gruden’s team has been a young defense. The secondary was suspect to begin the year and injuries have depleted the unit even more in recent weeks. Speaking of injuries, Marcus Mariota will get the start at quarterback for Las Vegas this week after Derek Carr suffered a significant groin injury last Thursday night. Mariota actually played really well in relief last week, but the Dolphins’ defense figures to provide a much more formidable test than that of the Los Angeles Chargers.
Dolphins vs Raiders Betting Trends
- Dolphins 2020 Betting Trends: 11-3 ATS; 5-9 to the Over
- Raiders 2020 Betting Trends: 7-7 ATS; 10-3-1 to the Over
- The Dolphins are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six head-to-head meetings against the Raiders.
- The Over has hit in each of the last six head-to-head meetings between the Dolphins and Raiders.
- In the last ten years, Raiders’ games against defenses allowing more than 17.15 yards per point are 30-10-1 to the Over.
Dolphins vs Raiders Stats
- Miami has averaged 25.1 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 16 in the NFL)
- Miami has surrendered 18.4 PPG this season (No. 1 in the NFL)
- Las Vegas has averaged 26.9 PPG this season (No. 11 in the NFL)
- Las Vegas has surrendered 30.1 PPG this season (No. 29 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Props
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire Week 16 slate. Here is one that I like for the Dolphins vs Raiders game.
Myles Gaskin is set to return to action this week after missing multiple weeks due to both a knee injury and the China virus. It’s worth noting that Salvon Ahmed played very well in his absence, but I do anticipate Gaskin to reclaim his lead role in the Dolphins backfield. Even if Ahmed is utilized as a compliment more than usual on Saturday, the Raiders are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs on a per-game basis. Gaskin should have no trouble clearing 10.5 fantasy points in this NFL picks contest..
My outlook for Nelson Agholor NFL props is not nearly as high. First, there is the change at quarterback from Derek Carr to Marcus Mariota. On top of that Agholor will have to contend with a stingy Miami defense, namely cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. There’s a good chance Agholor could draw coverage from both players on Saturday. The matchup plus the uncertainty renders him a touchdown-dependent fantasy play in Week 16. I’ll take the Under on 11.5 fantasy points in my NFL picks.
Picking both yardage totals correctly would win you 3x your buy-in.
Dolphins vs Raiders NFL Picks and NFL Odds
This game has seen limited line movement, both in terms of the spread and over/under. The opening line of Dolphins -2.5 got nudged up just half a point to an even field goal, while the total has bounced back and forth between the opening 47 and 48 throughout the week.
It’s impossible to fully trust the Raiders in this spot with a wretched defense and backup quarterback (albeit one of the best backups in the league). Miami is my preferred side here, and any number of 2.5 or better is definitely worth a play. For the sake of argument, I’ll allow myself to be coaxed into laying the field goal as well.
I’m also inclined to like the Over on 47.5 total points. I just don’t see the Raiders defense being able to stop the Dolphins, especially with several key offensive contributors expected to return. Miami won’t eclipse the over/under on their own, but I’m confident in Marcus Mariota and the Raiders to make up the difference.
Picks: Dolphins -3 and Over 47.5 (-115 and -110 respectively at MyBookie Sportsbook)