Last weekend was separation Saturday in college football. Well, at least in my opinion. Michigan State and Michigan clashed in East Lansing. The Spartans landed the final blow on a Charles Brantley interception of Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara. Michigan State prevailed, as Jim Harbaugh lost another big game, which is becoming an upsetting trend.
Down in the south, Georgia used a two-minute flurry of touchdowns at the end of the first half to breeze by Florida, 34-7.
The score was 3-0 Georgia, with just over two minutes to play in the first half. Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson fumbled on his own two-yard line, and the Bulldogs recovered, scoring on the next play. After 16 seconds had passed and Florida was set up on their own 20, Richardson threw an interception to Georgia linebacker Nolan Smith. On the next play, Georgia scored again on a Stetson Bennett touchdown. Finally, after giving up another touchdown, it looked like the Gators were going to get out of the first half only down 17-0. However, with seven seconds left in the first half, Richardson was again intercepted. This time by Bulldog linebacker Nakobe Dean, who took it to the house, giving Georgia a 24-0 lead heading into the half.
The First CFP Rankings
It was indeed separation Saturday in college football. However, on Sunday the first College Football Playoff Rankings were released, and believe me, there were a couple of surprises. Obviously, Georgia was slotted in at number one, followed by another SEC power in Alabama. The Tide’s ranking shocked a lot of media, and fans, as Alabama has already lost once this season. However, behind the Tide was Michigan State at number three. The Spartans topped rival Michigan over the weekend and deserved a top-four spot. Finally, Oregon was ranked fourth, with the committee viewing their win in Columbus as one of the best of the season. The first two teams out were a one-loss Ohio State and an undefeated Cincinnati.
The Bearcats and their fans had to be completely blind-sided and disgusted with the first rankings. The Bearcats have one of the more impressive wins of the season, beating 10th-ranked Notre Dame in South Bend. On top of that, the misery continues for Luke Fickell and company, as SMU and Houston were not even ranked. That gives the Bearcats exactly zero opportunities to prove themselves down the stretch. All in all, the Bearcats need a lot of help from others to crack the top four this season.
With all that being said, this weekend’s slate is a little bit underwhelming but does have some good games. The only ranked versus ranked matchup this weekend is 13th-ranked Auburn traveling to College Station to take on 14th-ranked Texas A&M. On top of that Ohio State will travel to Lincoln, Nebraska this weekend to take on Scott Frost and the Huskers. Michigan State has no easy task either, traveling to Purdue to take on the Boilermakers. With all this being said let’s hop into our best bets for Week 10 in college football.
Best Bets For Week 10 | College Football Betting
College football betting odds are taken from BetMGM Sportsbook.
Missouri vs Georgia
Spread: UGA -39.5 (-110) | MIZZ +39.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Not Available
Total: 59.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Why to Bet the Under: On paper, this game should be a blowout. However, I’ve been very consistent with my Georgia picks this year. Since the Bulldogs beat Vanderbilt 62-0, all of their games have gone under. They beat Arkansas 37-0, and the total before the game was 48.5. The next game was the same story, as the total before the Georgia-Auburn game was 47.5, and the Bulldogs won 34-10.
So, like I said, I’ve been consistent when betting on Georgia, and for good reason. Their defense is one of the best we’ve seen in over a decade. On top of that, their offense has stalled at times this year, with transfer quarterback JT Daniels finding it hard to stay on the field. There’s no reason to go away from something that has been working for you, so I’ll keep taking the under in Georgia games until it loses.
With all that being said, Georgia and its opponent have only scored over 59.5 twice this year. To add to that, the two teams combine to give up only 42.6 points per game. All signs in this one point to the under. Finally, it’s a smart move to stick with the under considering Missouri is win-less versus the spread this year.
The Pick: Missouri vs Georgia Under 59.5
Ohio State vs Nebraska
Spread: OSU -15 (-110) | NEB +15 (-110)
Moneyline: OSU (-750) | NEB (+500)
Total: 66.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Why to Bet Ohio State -15: Ohio State this season is 5-3 against the spread. On top of that, the Buckeyes average 47.3 points per game, which is 27 points more than the Huskers allow this year. The Buckeyes offense is coming off a sluggish performance versus Penn State. CJ Stroud, who had looked incredible in the weeks leading up to the Penn State game, had a decent game, but was not at his best. Ohio State had a massive amount of trouble getting the running game going. That shouldn’t be a problem this weekend, as Nebraska gives up nearly 140 yards of rushing per game.
With all that being said, the Buckeyes have just dominated this series. Since 2016, the Huskers and Buckeyes have met five times. The Buckeyes have won all five of those matchups, and they did it in impressive fashion. The average margin of victory for the Buckeyes over those five games was 36.4 points. Scott Frost and the Huskers have been flat-out embarrassed by Ohio State the past couple of years, and I don’t think this will be any different.
The Pick: Ohio State -15
Michigan State vs Purdue
Spread: MSU -3 (-115) | PUR +3 (-105)
Moneyline: MSU (-150) | PUR (+130)
Total: 53.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Why to Bet Michigan State -3: I’ve also been pretty consistent when it comes to Michigan State this year. I love them versus inferior Big Ten opponents, simply because they are more physical. Kenneth Walker III has to be the leading Heisman Candidate at this point, and Purdue isn’t even ranked inside the top 50 in rushing defense. I will admit, this is a pretty tricky trap game for the Spartans. However, they showed their resilience when they were down by 16 to Michigan last weekend, only to come back and win.
Mel Tucker and the Spartans have been great against the spread this season, compiling a record of 6-1-1. On top of that, when Michigan State scores more than 17 points in a game, they are tough to beat, and Purdue gives up 17.1 points per game. This could be a sloppy game due to weather, which would also favor the Spartans. We’re two weeks away from a huge showdown in Columbus featuring Michigan State. The Spartans will pass this week’s test to stay undefeated, keeping their playoff hopes alive.
The Pick: Michigan State -3
Wake Forest vs North Carolina
Spread: UNC -2.5 (-110) | WAKE +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: UNC (-115) | WAKE (-135)
Total: 77 — Over (-105) | Under (-115)
Why to Bet Wake Forest +2.5: What a mess the ACC has been this season. However, one of the bright spots is indeed the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. They currently sit at ninth in the most recent College Football Playoff Rankings, with an 8-0 record. The Demon Deacons are a good football team, that averages nearly 500 yards per game (495.4) this season. North Carolina, on the other hand, have been very disappointing. I like the Heels and Sam Howell, but they are going to need a monster effort to take down the Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest covered the spread the only time this season they were a 2.5 point underdog this season. On the other hand, the Tar Heels are only 3-5 against the spread. Tack that on to the fact that Wake Forest scores 13 more points per game than the Heels usually allow versus the same ACC opponents, and the only play here is Wake Forest. Out of all the picks on this article, I am most confident in this one.
The Pick: Wake Forest +2.5
Auburn vs Texas A&M
Spread: A&M -5 (-110) | AUB +5 (-110)
Moneyline: A&M (-210) | AUB (+175)
Total: 49.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Why to Bet the Over: The game of the week for most, Auburn versus Texas A&M, looks to be a hotly contested matchup with real implications on the SEC title race. The Tigers have been on a tear recently. After losing to Georgia, Bo Nix and company have reeled off back-to-back wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss. The Aggies have been on fire as well. After losing to Arkansas and Mississippi State in back-to-back weeks, they’ve won three straight, including the upset over Alabama.
With both of these teams playing well, I like the total to go over here. Both teams combine to score 64.5 points per game. Bo Nix and the Tigers are still squarely in the SEC West race and could make the title game if they win out. A&M will not go lightly, however. While both defenses are very good, I think Bo Nix and Zach Calzada are going to have great games, and it will be a barn burner. Add in the fact that a win here only enhances Jimbo Fisher’s resume, if he would decide to leave for, oh I don’t know, LSU. This will be a good, back and forth game. Take the over here.
The Pick: Over 49.5
