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Bucks vs Suns Prediction, Trends and Betting Odds for NBA Finals Game 5

Neither team played especially great in Game 4, but the Milwaukee Bucks ended up getting the win, tyring the NBA Finals series up with the Phoenix Suns. Now in Phoenix, the Suns are hoping the pattern of the home team winning is stronger than the momentum of the Bucks. This NBA betting preview for the Bucks vs Suns Finals matchup will provide game info, betting trends, odds and a prediction for Game 5 of this series.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns Betting Preview and Prediction | NBA Finals

NBA Finals Game 5 (Series Tied 2-2)
Milwaukee Bucks (46-26, 20-16 Away) vs. Phoenix Suns (51-21, 30-12 Home)
Date: Saturday, July 17, 2021
Time: 9 pm EST
Venue: Phoenix Suns Arena – Phoenix, AZ
Coverage: ABC

Despite shooting 24.1% from deep and 40.2% overall, the Bucks got a six-point Game 4 win. It’s easy to see why Milwaukee won, and it’s because of the second chances they were able to get. They attempted 19 more shots than the Suns in the game. This is because the Bucks grabbed 12 more offensive rebounds and they had 12 less turnovers. Winning both of these categories goes a long way to winning the game. Khris Middleton led the Bucks in scoring, with 40 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo was two assists shy of a triple-double, through his passiveness early was the main focus following the game.

The Suns shot 51.3% in the game, and they lost because of those two stat categories dicusssed above. Devin Booker had a dominant three quarters or so, scoring a game-high 42 points on 17-28 shooting. However, blatent fouls were not called in the fourth quarter, while his scoring also disappeared, leading to a bad taste left in many’s mouths about Booker’s performance. What he did, however, should not overshadow Chris Paul, who was not good in Milwaukee. His scoring dipped to 19 and 10 points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. What’s worse is his 15 combined turnovers over the past three games. Paul must limit these uncharacteristic turnovers, for the Suns to win at home tonight.

Chris Paul NBA betting odds bucks vs Suns prediction NBA finals Playoffs
Credit: Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

NBA Betting Odds

Moneyline: MIL: (+150) | PHO: (-178)
Spread: MIL: +4 (-110) | PHO: -4 (-110)
Total: 218 – Over: (-110) I Under: (-110)

  • Milwaukee is 8-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last 12 games.
  • The total has hit the over in four of the Bucks’ last six games against the Suns.
  • Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games against Phoenix.
  • Phoenix is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games.
  • Phoenix is 13-4 straight up in its last 17 games.

Bucks vs Suns Prediction

This NBA prediction uses NumberFire’s probability model. They give Phoenix a 62.1% chance to win Game 5 of this NBA Finals matchup.

The Suns have been the best team in the NBA against the spread in home games (30-16), and it has held true throughout the NBA Playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bucks have been the second-worst team ATS on the road (19-28). Phoenix continues to start games off quickly. Using the energy of their home crowd in Game 4, the long runs that occurred in Milwaukee should be shortened. Still, the main key for this game is Paul. If he can play true to himself, limit turnovers and score over 20 points, the Suns should cover the spread at home.

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