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Bucks vs Suns Prediction, Trends and Betting Odds for Game 1 NBA Finals

After a long, COVID-filled season that featured many obstacles, we have finally reached Game 1 of the NBA Finals! Two organizations that feature true team basketball were rewarded with a Finals appearance. Now, the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns are just four wins away from being crowned champions! Which team will grab the first win? This NBA betting preview for the Bucks vs Suns Finals matchup will provide game info, betting trends, odds and a prediction for Game 1 of this series.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns Betting Preview and Prediction | NBA Finals

NBA Finals Game 1
Milwaukee Bucks (46-26, 20-16 Away) vs. Phoenix Suns (51-21, 30-12 Home)
Date: Tuesday, July 6, 2021
Time: 9 pm EST
Venue: Phoenix Suns Arena – Phoenix, AZ
Coverage: ABC

The big question for this Bucks team heading into Tuesday night is the health of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. After hyperextending his knee last series, Giannis somehow avoided structural damage, according to the reports. However, after a private workout in Phoenix, he is considered doubtful to play tonight.

This puts a great deal of pressure on the duo of Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton. The two not only need to find their shot in a hurry, but they must be aggressive on the offensive end. They no longer should be deferring when Giannis is out of the lineup, but this mentality has proven to be difficult for these two to change.

The Suns won both regular season matchups with the Bucks by a combined two points, and after nearly a week off and getting to play at home, their confidence should be at an all-time high. Role players are stepping up, Deandre Ayton is becoming a star, Devin Booker is proving to be one of the best offensive players in the league and Chris Paul is playing MVP-level basketball. This is one of the most balanced, well-coached teams the NBA Finals have seen in some time. If they play their game comfortably, it will be tough for Milwaukee to win.

Chris Paul NBA betting odds bucks vs Suns prediction NBA finals Playoffs
Credit: Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

NBA Betting Odds

Moneyline: MIL: (+220) | PHO: (-270)
Spread: MIL: +6 (-110) | PHO: -6 (-110)
Total: 218.5 – Over: (-114) I Under: (-106)

  • Milwaukee is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
  • The total has hit the over in four of the Bucks’ last five road games against the Suns.
  • Milwaukee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against Phoenix.
  • Phoenix is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.
  • Phoenix is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 games.

Bucks vs Suns Prediction

This NBA prediction uses NumberFire’s probability model. They give Phoenix a 61.7% chance to win Game 1 of this NBA Finals matchup.

The Bucks and coach Mike Budenholzer have been criticized in the past for failing to adapt. While they won last series without Giannis, this criticism is still fair to say about last series. Heading to Phoenix on limited rest and down a major piece on the defensive end of the court, the Suns should be able to run circles around Milwaukee. Holiday is the player that could throw a wrench into this, but I do not believe he will be aggressive enough to slow down the Suns’ backcourt, along with the pick-and-roll game with Ayton.

Six points is a lot to cover, but I’m predicting another Game 1 where the Bucks come out dazed and confused. 

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