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Bucks vs Suns Betting Trends for NBA Finals Game 1

With the NBA Finals officially here, it’s time to have a little fun with NBA betting. We also couldn’t have a closer matchup, with the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns meeting twice during the regular season, with both games being one-point Phoenix victories. Choosing who to bet for Game 1 tonight can be tough, so let’s look through some of the Bucks vs Suns NBA betting trends for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

nba betting trends finals bucks vs suns
Credit: David Sherman/NBAE
  • Milwaukee is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
  • The total has hit the over in four of the Bucks’ last five road games against the Suns.
  • Milwaukee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against Phoenix.
  • Phoenix is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.
  • Phoenix is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 games.

Does NBA Offensive/Defensive Rating Matter?

Everything these two teams have worked for comes down to one last series. However, does anything that has happened prior to the NBA Finals even matter for predicting this Bucks vs Suns series?

Let’s start with Offensive Efficiency. Of the last 17 champions, only nine have had been the team with the better Offensive Efficiency. Is it the majority? Yes, but these results aren’t clear enough to be a true NBA betting trend. Nonetheless, the Suns have the advantage as the sixth-ranked team, while the Bucks are seventh.

They say defense wins championships, and maybe the old saying is onto something. Of the last 17 champions, 11 have had the better Defensive Efficiency, with one matchup featuring teams with a tied ranking, so we are looking at 11-of-16 for this category. While our teams are extremely close in this category as well, the Bucks have the advantage over the Suns, ranking sixth and seventh, respectively.

Does the More Rested Team Win the NBA Finals?

While the major story of this NBA Finals is the Giannis Antetokounmpo injury, fatigue entering this series should also be noted. After beginning their series earlier, the Suns have been off since June 30th and get to host the game tonight. The Bucks, however, last played on July 3rd.

While the NBA Playoffs schedule may be a bit frustrating for some Bucks fans, there is a bit of good news. Only eight of the past 17 NBA Finals champions finished the Conference Finals sooner, meaning less off-time has meant good things. Again, there isn’t much to take from this NBA betting trend, but sometimes inconclusive stats can also be useful.

With our Bucks vs Suns NBA Finals matchup in Phoenix tonight, there are a few NBA betting trends that will be relevant.

With a 28-16 record against the spread (ATS), the Suns covered the second-most in the NBA at home this season (63.6%). They were 26-13 ATS as a home favorite, 18-11-1 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 with four or more days off and 11-5 in the NBA Playoffs.

The NBA betting trends are less kind to Milwaukee. The Bucks were 19-26 ATS on the road this season, as well as 2-3 as a road underdog, 10-20 against the Western Conference, 7-8 with two or three days off and 10-7 in the NBA Playoffs.

The OVER is 24-19-1 for the Suns at home this season, 20-10 against the Eastern Conference and 14-9 when they have a rest advantage. The NBA betting trends are less conclusive for the Bucks tonight, but the OVER also was 20-10 for them against Western Conference teams this season, and both matchups with the Suns this season went OVER.


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