The first baseball game of the 2022 MLB betting season at Petco Park is set to be played tonight. The San Diego Padres will host the defending World Series Champion Atlanta Braves on Thursday in their home opener. Both teams fancy themselves to be contenders this season in a crowded National League. However, each side failed to generate much offense of any kind in losing efforts yesterday. The current MLB betting odds suggest that tonight’s game is a true toss-up. With identical odds on both teams, it’s impossible to call one side a favorite over the other when making a Braves vs Padres prediction.
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Braves vs Padres Prediction and MLB Betting Preview
MLB Regular Season Game
Atlanta Braves (3-4, 0-0 Away) vs. San Diego Padres (4-3, 0-0 Home)
Date: Thursday, Apr. 14, 2022
Start Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park — San Diego, CA
Braves vs Padres Starting Pitchers
Braves: Charlie Morton (1-0 Record, 3.38 ERA)
Padres: Joe Musgrove (0-0, 3.00 ERA)
Atlanta Braves Team Preview
Last year saw the Braves play sub-par baseball throughout much of the first half of the MLB betting season. A flurry of trade deadline acquisitions helped the team come together down the stretch. Atlanta rode their surge all the way to a World Series title. Fast-forward to 2022 and, perhaps, the Braves are feeling a bit of a championship hangover. Despite opening the season with seven straight home games against two ballclubs that aren’t expected to be any good, Atlanta has only managed three victories coming into tonight’s Braves vs Padres matchup.
After piling up 16 runs in a blowout win over Washington on Tuesday, the Braves offense mustered all of three total hits in yesterday’s loss. Two of those came courtesy of Austin Riley, who also accounted for the team’s only run on a solo homer. Atlanta will aim to provide Thursday’s starter, Charlie Morton, with a bit more run support. The 38-year-old was quite sharp in his season debut last weekend. He held Cincinnati to just two runs on two hits over 5.1 innings. After getting knocked out of the World Series with a leg injury, the fact that Morton was able to hit the ground running on Opening Weekend was a major positive for the Braves.
San Diego Padres Team Preview
Aside from a brief flurry in the very first inning, the Padres offense was also held in check on Wednesday. While there is certainly no shame in losing to San Francisco ace Logan Webb, the Padres have to be frustrated by the lack of production. San Diego got things off to a promising start with Manny Machado stroking a double in the top of the first. He then came around to score on a Jake Cronenworth RBI triple. That was the only run the Padres could muster for the entirety of the contest.
After Sean Manaea took a hard-luck loss yesterday, San Diego will turn to Joe Musgrove for tonight’s home opener. The 29-year-old scattered two runs on five hits over six innings in his season debut last weekend. Musgrove also struck out eight Arizona batters he faced in that start. After a frustrating 2021 campaign, tonight’s Braves vs Padres MLB betting matchup could be a major statement for Musgrove if he is able to silence a potent Atlanta lineup.
Braves vs Padres MLB Betting Odds
MLB betting odds for Braves vs Padres are taken from Bovada Sportsbook.
Moneyline: ATL: (-110) | SD: (-110)
Run Line: ATL: +1.5 (-210) | SD: -1.5 (+175)
Total: 7.5 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
Public Betting Percentages via Action Network: ATL: (56%) | SD: (44%)
Braves vs Padres MLB Betting Trends
- The UNDER is 6-1-2 in the Braves’ last nine games when facing a right-handed starting pitcher.
- The OVER is 3-0-1 in the Braves’ last four games with Charlie Morton starting after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.
- Padres are 0-4 straight up in their last four games against NL East teams.
- The UNDER is 5-0 in the Padres’ last five games following a loss.
- Braves are a perfect 6-0 straight up in their last six head-to-head matchups against the Padres in San Diego.
Braves vs Padres Stats
- Atlanta is averaging 4.86 runs per game (RPG) this season (T-No. 8 in the MLB).
- Atlanta is surrendering 5.29 RPG this season (No. 25 in the MLB).
- San Diego is averaging 3.86 RPG this season (No. 18 in the MLB).
- San Diego is surrendering 4.00 RPG this season (T-No. 10 in the MLB).
Braves vs Padres Weather Report
According to Forecast.io
Wind: 11 MPH (blowing left to right)
Braves vs Padres Prediction | MLB Betting Picks
Although there are several MLB betting trends that favor the under in tonight’s series-opener, one cannot help but believe that both teams are due for a bounceback game offensively. While the Padres’ lineup is clearly lacking a major contributor in Fernando Tatis Jr., there are still capable bats. Meanwhile, the Braves’ horrendous showing yesterday against Washington must be considered an anomaly given the swaths of talent all throughout the batting order. Considering that the MLB betting total sits at only 7.5, betting the over is a solid play.
From a matchup-specific outlook, several players on both teams have experienced success against the respective Braves vs Padres starting pitchers. One of those that stands out is San Diego’s Jurickson Profar. He has five hits (including one home run) in 13 prior at-bats against Atlanta’s Charlie Morton. This equates to a solid .385 career batting average.
Profar has also notably gotten off to a strong start this season, both at the plate and in the field. A one-hit effort yesterday has his batting average sitting at .353 coming into tonight’s home-opener. In fact, the 29-year-old has at least one hit in each of the five games in which he has had at least one at-bat thus far. Bringing all of these stats together, bettors should consider betting on Profar to record at least one hit this evening.
Braves vs Padres Prediction: Jurickson Profar Over 0.5 Hits (-134 at Bovada Sportsbook)
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