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Bracketology and Bubble Update: March 9th

The top seeds within the conference tournaments are beginning their play, as they compete for seeding at the top of the bracket. Below is my updated Bracketology along with bracket highlights. Seeds 1-10 are all safe in my eyes, leaving the 11 seeds and 8 other teams on the bubble.

Bracket Highlights

  • Duke and Kansas are fighting for the last #1 seed, as I feel that Virginia, Villanova, and Xavier are locked as #1 seeds. The outlier is UNC, who could beat rival Duke and Virginia to jump all the way to the #1 line, but Kansas would have to lose in the Big 12 Tournament.
  • Many experts have Arizona at a #4 seed, but I believe that if the Wildcats win the PAC 12 then they are easily a #2 seed.
  • Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan State have all been involved in a major argument. “Who has the better resume?” and “Who deserves a #2 seed to play close to home in Detroit?” are the questions being asked. I am honestly not sure what the committee is going to do on Sunday, so I guess we will have to wait and see.
  • Nevada has bounced around a ton in my Bracketologies, and they now sit on the 6-seed line, but the committee could put them anywhere especially if they lose in the MW conference tournament which seems unlikely but it is March so who knows.
  • In terms of today’s games, Kentucky must win to stay on the crucial 6-seed line, Texas Tech and West Virginia are playing for a #4 seed, and the biggest rivalry in College Basketball between Duke and UNC gets a tiebreaker to decide many seeds at the top of the bracket.


The bubble has been defined and is now easier to understand after the last two days of action in conference tournaments. Below is the bubble with descriptions of the situation that each team is in as of today in terms of receiving an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

St Marys (11 seed)- With the Gaels falling to BYU In the Semi-Finals of the WCC Tournament they enter the bubble, and I give them a 65% chance to get into the NCAA Tournament as they sit and wait for their name to be called on Sunday.

Alabama (11 seed)- The Tide literally saved their tournament hopes with an incredible finger roll by freshman standout Collin Sexton at the buzzer to beat Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. In the next round, Alabama plays Auburn, where I think win or loss Alabama is a tournament team.

Baylor (Last 4 In)- Baylor fell to West Virginia in their first Big 12 Tournament game, but I believe that Baylor is going to be in the NCAA Tournament even after the loss, but time will tell.

USC (Last 4 In)- USC is still playing in the PAC 12 Tournament and they have reached the semifinals where they will face Oregon. Win and they are in, but a loss could be interesting when thinking about where it would leave USC. Oregon is not a tournament team unless they win the PAC 12 Tournament, so a loss could drop USC a good amount, but I think they would still be in the tournament field.

Oklahoma (Last 4 In)- Oklahoma falls to Oklahoma State meaning they have to sit and wait to see if their school will be called on Sunday, but for me I think they will get in.

Middle Tennessee (Last 4 In)- The Blue Raiders were upset in the C-USA Tournament, so they enter the bubble which means they could steal a bubble teams spot on Sunday. In terms of my bracketology I have Middle Tennessee in and taking Notre Dame’s spot. Experts are 50/50 on Middle Tennessee so it will be interesting to see if they get in.

Notre Dame (Out)- ND fell to Duke to end their run in the ACC Tournament, leaving them right on the cut line to get into the Big Dance. The Irish have to sit and wait until Sunday to find out their fate, but to me they are the best team outside of the field.

Louisville (Out)- Louisville is in the same boat as Notre Dame as they fell to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. The Cardinal are right outside the tournament field and they may actually have a better resume then Notre Dame, but it is close.

Teams out that have to wait for Sunday to see if their school will be selected (Ranked)

  1. Oklahoma State
  2. ASU
  3. Marquette
  4. Penn State
  5. Syracuse
  6. Utah

Unlikely to get in, but have a slim chance (Ranked)

  1. Oregon
  2. Boise State
  3. Nebraska
  4. Mississippi State
  5. Georgia
  6. LSU

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