NFL betting experts and fans alike are in store for a massive collision between high-powered AFC offenses this weekend. Nothing less than a spot in Super Bowl LV will be at stake when the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday night. Two of the most electric quarterbacks in the NFL this season will trade blows in what figures to be a very compelling game. The NFL odds and expert Bills vs Chiefs prediction lines label slightly favor the home team.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and predictions for the Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Game on Sunday night.
NFL Odds, Picks and Props | Bills vs Chiefs
Bills vs Chiefs Game Info
Buffalo Bills (15-3, 6-2 Away) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 7-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 24, 2020
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Bills vs Chiefs NFL Odds + NFL Picks
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: Chiefs -2.5; O/U 55
Moneyline: BUF: (+155) | KC: (-175)
Spread: BUF: +3.5 (-115) | KC: -3.5 (-105)
Total: 54 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
Bills vs Chiefs NFL Playoffs Overview
The Bills and Chiefs were two of the AFC’s top teams all season long. As the top two seeds in the playoff bracket, it’s fitting that they get to battle for the right to advance to Super Bowl LV. The teams met once during the regular season in Orchard Park. That game was played in a heavy downpour with the Chiefs picking up a 26-17 road victory. There is a chance that we will see some light rainfall again in Sunday’s rematch but the conditions should be nowhere near as impactful. Buffalo’s Sean McDermott and Kansas City’s Andy Reid are regarded as two of the best coaches in the NFL. Can the upstart Bills unseat the defending Super Bowl champs atop the AFC?
The Bills offense has lived and died on the arm of third-year quarterback Josh Allen this season. One need not look any further than their impressive win-loss record to see that it has thrived the majority of the time. The offseason acquisition of Stefon Diggs along with adjustments to Allen’s arm mechanics and footwork have all paid major dividends. The presence of a true alpha receiver has taken Buffalo’s aerial attack to a whole new level. While Diggs imposed his own will with a 1,500-yard season, his sheer presence enabled other Bills’ pass-catchers like Cole Beasley and even tight end Dawson Knox to be effective underneath.
Where the Bills fall short offensively is on the ground. Buffalo hardly even tried to run the football in last week’s Divisional Round matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. While the Chiefs’ weakness defensively is against the run, it’s fair to wonder whether the Bills are even capable of taking advantage.
The Bills had one of their best collective games of the season from a defensive standpoint last week. Buffalo stacked the box against the potent Bills run game, essentially daring Lamar Jackson to beat them through the air. He failed miserably, with the highlight-reel play coming on a 101-yard interception return for a score by Taron Johnson. Things don’t figure to come as easily against the potent Chiefs offense on Sunday. Cornerback Tre’Davious White may have signed a $70 million contract in the offseason, but he hasn’t looked anything close to being a $70 million player this season. Buffalo was also among the worst defenses in the league at covering the tight end position this season. That flaw could be ripe for exposure in the AFC Championship Game.
While Josh Allen’s remarkable season took the NFL world by storm, it was business as usual for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing attack. Mahomes got knocked out of last week’s Divisional Round game with a concussion but all reports indicate that he will be ready to roll on Sunday. Kansas City’s bevy of pass-catchers will be a tough cover for the Bills’ secondary. Tyreek Hill is always a big-play threat, and tight end Travis Kelce has a chance to feast in this matchup.
The biggest difference between the Chiefs and Bills offenses this season was in the run game. While Buffalo’s rushing attack was nonexistent, Kansas City was actually far from a one-dimensional offense. The Chiefs ranked 13th in rushing efficiency (Football Outsiders). Darrel Williams garnered the majority of carries last week with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined by an injury. The latter is expected to play in the AFC Championship Game. Add in Le’Veon Bell and the Chiefs have a formidable three-back tandem.
The Chiefs defense is undoubtedly the most disrespected unit in this matchup. There may not be a defense in all the NFL more capable of confusing Josh Allen with a variety of coverage looks than Kansas City. The Chiefs blitzed on 35.9% of snaps this season which ranked ninth in the NFL. In terms of pass rush effectiveness, however, Kansas City knocked opposing QBs down on 11.4% of their dropbacks, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
While Chris Jones will lead the pass rush, the wild card is safety Tyrann Mathieu. Look no further than the first matchup between the teams in which he spent time covering Stefon Diggs downfield as well as applying pressure at the line of scrimmage. Mathieu’s versatility is similar to that of Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker in terms of his ability to keep quarterbacks guessing. For what it’s worth, two of Allen’s 10 interceptions on the season came against Arizona.
Bills vs Chiefs Betting Trends
- Bills 2020-21 Betting Trends: 12-6 ATS; 11-6-1 to the Over
- Chiefs 2020-21 Betting Trends: 7-10 ATS; 8-9 to the Over
- The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games.
- The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
- The Chiefs are 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five games against the Bills.
- Road teams are on an 8-2 ATS surge in the last ten games between the Bills and Chiefs.
- The Under has hit in four of the last five Bills vs Chiefs matchups.
- The Over has cashed in four of the Chiefs’ last five games played in January.
- The Under is 7-1 in the Bills last eight road games with Bill Vinovich as referee.
Bills vs Chiefs Stats
- Buffalo is averaging 30.3 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 3 in the NFL).
- Buffalo is surrendering 22.3 PPG this season (Tied for No. 9 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is averaging 29.1 PPG this season (Tied for No. 5 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is surrendering 22.3 PPG this season (Tied for No. 9 in the NFL).
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Playoffs Props | Bills vs Chiefs
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for both NFL Playoffs conference championship games. Here is one in particular that I like for the Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Game.
I’m leaning towards a much more defensive-minded affair in my handicap of this game than most. With this in mind, the stated touchdown goal I’ll be playing for this NFL props contest is 2.5. Two of the names here likely come as no surprise. Once again, the Bills have been a tremendous matchup for tight ends this season. Travis Kelce found the end zone twice in the regular season meeting between the teams. It’s also impossible to not include Stefon Diggs here. Minus Josh Allen running for a score himself, Diggs is the safest bet on the Buffalo side of the equation.
The contrarian choice here is Darrel Williams. While Clyde Edwards-Healire is trending toward a return, I’m not sold on him being the focal point of the Kansas City backfield in his first game back. We saw Williams play a far more prominent role than Le’Veon Bell last week, and I like him to see a decent workload again on Sunday. Despite Edwards-Helaire rushing for 161 yards against the Bills in Week 6, it was Williams who reached paydirt on one of his six carries. Look for him to score again in the AFC Championship Game.
Correctly picking players to exceed the goal of 2.5 touchdowns would win you 2.5x your buy-in amount.
Bills vs Chiefs NFL Playoffs Prediction
Given that Patrick Mahomes was a true question mark when the NFL odds for the AFC Championship Game first hit the market, it’s no surprise that the point spread has shifted in the Chiefs’ direction. Bettors had an even three-point spread available to them for much of the week. More sharp money on the home team added a hook to that on Friday afternoon. The total has seen wonky movement patterns throughout the week. An initial surge of money to the Over was counteracted with the line dipping as low as 53. More Over money has seen it settle out at the current 54.
The one-dimensional offense of Buffalo makes it impossible for me to predict an upset of the defending champs on their home turf. Josh Allen has been tremendous all season, but the Chiefs defense presents a difficult and perplexing matchup. Without a complementary ground game, Allen could be prone to mistakes in this game.
Of course, the major concern with the Chiefs is the health of Patrick Mahomes. If the Week 6 meeting between the teams is any sort of foreshadowing, the Chiefs might not need Mahomes to do too much. Kansas City ran all over the Bills defense in that game. Even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s health in question, I’m plenty confident in Darrel Williams to pick up the slack. If Buffalo is able to contradict my Under handicap and find a groove offensively, it’s still no sure thing that they can outscore Mahomes over four quarters. Chiefs Kingdom should find itself Super Bowl-bound once again.
Bills vs Chiefs Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bills 19
Betting Picks: Chiefs ML (-175), Chiefs -3.5 (-105) and Under 54 (-110) at Bovada Sportsbook