The first ticket to the 2022 NBA Finals could be punched on Tuesday night. The Golden State Warriors are eyeing an unlikely sweep of the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals with Game 4 of the series on tap for this evening. Interestingly enough, the Mavericks are laying a single point with the majority of NBA betting picks expecting them to extend the series to a fifth game. In addition to the game lines, the NBA props market continues to offer bettors a great opportunity to make money during the playoffs. The NBA The following article offers three of the best NBA player prop bets for the May 24th Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 matchup.
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Best NBA Betting Player Props for Warriors vs Mavericks Tonight, 5/24
Kevon Looney O/U 9.5 Rebounds
After how the Warriors got blasted on the boards by Steven Adams towards the end of their Second Round series against Memphis, it was clear that a solution would need to be put in place going into the Western Conference Finals. Given that Kevon Looney engulfed a whopping 22 boards in the series-clinching win over Memphis, it was reasonable to believe that he would play a bigger role going forward as well.
That handicap has come to fruition and then some. Looney has played no less than 28 minutes in Games 1-3 against the Mavericks. He has a pair of double-digit scoring lines and has also corralled a dozen rebounds in each of the last two contests. Given Looney’s increased presence on the floor, bettors can overlook his season average of 7.3 rebounds to an extent. After all, he achieved that mark despite only playing 21 minutes per game. With seven to ten minutes of additional playing time in this series, it’s no surprise to see him breaking into double figures on the glass.
Looney would need to finish with ten rebounds minimum in order to exceed tonight’s NBA player props total of 9.5. One other factor to consider here is how awful the Mavericks have been on the boards. The Warriors have actually outrebounded Dallas by 13 boards or more in all three games of this series to date. The trend is not exclusive to the Western Conference Finals either. The Mavs were simply able to overcome their rebounding deficiencies easier against lesser-quality opponents.
NBA Player Props Prediction: Kevon Looney OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-130)
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Maxi Kleber O/U 4.5 Rebounds
The second NBA betting picks option that we will focus on looks at the rebounding total for Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber. The 30-year-old has been such a key part of the Mavs making a run all the way to the Western Conference Finals. Unfortunately, it has been tough sledding for him in this series so far. Not only has Kleber been a non-factor on the offensive end, but he has also finished with four rebounds or less in each of the first three games against Golden State.
Relative to a per-game average of 5.9 boards on the full season, it’s pretty safe to say that Kleber’s rebounding numbers in this series have been very underwhelming. On the bright side for bettors, the poor showings in Games 1-3 have caused the NBA player props market to adjust Kleber’s rebounding total ahead of Tuesday’s matchup. This has created a buy-low opportunity with his prop line sitting at just 4.5 boards ahead of Game 4.
One would notably have to go all the way back to Game 5 of Dallas’ Second Round series against Phoenix to find the last time Kleber exceeded today’s NBA prop bets total. However, he has finished with exactly four rebounds in three of the five games since then. In a nutshell, the diminished betting total has resulted in a favorable over prediction.
NBA Player Props Prediction: Maxi Kleber OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-121)
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Spencer Dinwiddie O/U 13.5 Points
Interestingly enough, Spencer Dinwiddie’s NBA props totals have fluctuated back and forth all throughout this series. After scoring 17 in Game 1, Dinwiddie’s NBA player props point total went up from 11.5 to 12.5. He then proceeded to only score four points in Game 2. The line dipped to over/under 10.5 points ahead of Sunday night’s home game. After sailing past that total with a 26-point effort, today’s line of 13.5 is the highest we have seen for Dinwiddie in these playoffs to date.
Based on the fact that Dinwiddie has averaged 15.8 points per game since joining the Mavericks at the trade deadline, one could argue that over is the play. Keep in mind that Dallas was without Luka Doncic for some of those games early in the playoffs. While Dinwiddie has cleared the NBA betting line in four of the last five games, he fell short in each of the five games prior to that. The former Colorado Buffalo has scored 11 points or less in eight of the 13 games in which Doncic has been in the lineup this postseason.
From a statistical standpoint, digging into Dinwddie’s shooting numbers is also pertinent to this NBA betting picks argument. The 29-year-old has averaged 15.8 points per game as a Maverick while also averaging 50% shooting from the field and over 40% from beyond the arc. Those percentages most definitely are not sustainable. One has to believe that regression is even more likely over the long haul going against the stout Warriors defense.
NBA Player Props Prediction: Spencer Dinwiddie UNDER 13.5 Points (-103)
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