Even with college basketball taking center stage this weekend, bettors should never lose sight of other opportunities to find value and turn a profit. Professional hoops are in the backseat, but Saturday’s slate still features six games that are worth pursuing. Even if you can’t find a strong edge on the game lines themselves, there are bound to be opportunities in the NBA props market. The following article offers three of the best NBA player prop bets for the March 5th slate.
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Best NBA Betting Player Props for Tonight, 3/5
Chuma Okeke Under 6.5 Rebounds (-127)
After Chuma Okeke finished with 11 rebounds in the team’s last game, it might be surprising to find the NBA player props market juiced to the under tonight. Even with the Orlando Magic ruling fellow big man Wendell Carter Jr. out for tonight’s game, the gap between this NBA betting total and Okeke’s standard production on the glass makes under 6.5 boards the side of interest.
While the absence of Carter virtually guarantees that Okeke will see more than the 24 minutes he has averaged this season, playing time has not always led to increased rebounding production. The fact that he would need to eclipse his per-game average of 4.8 boards by more than two in order to exceed tonight’s prop total of 6.5 is noteworthy.
The other key point to consider here is that Orlando faces the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. On the season, the Grizz lead the NBA in Rebound Rate. Memphis has successfully secured 53.5% of all available rebounds in games this season, a much better rate than the Toronto team that Okeke exploited on the glass last night. The fact that this is also the Magic’s second game in as many nights could play a factor here. Okeke is certain to not have quite as much gas in the tank after logging 30 minutes just 24 hours ago.
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Drew Eubanks Over 10.5 Points (-103)
Fresh off of signing another 10-day contract to remain with the depleted Portland Trail Blazers, Drew Eubanks comes into Saturday’s contest having scored 13 points in back-to-back games. He also finished with 10 and eight rebounds in those two contests, respectively. With Jusuf Nurkic sidelined by an injury, Eubanks has actually been starting at center for the Blazers.
While Eubanks has needed very high shooting percentages in order to post these two recent scoring lines, bettors don’t necessarily need to worry about this falling off like they might with other players. He is a true post player and has a 70.6% shooting percentage from the field over the course of the full season. If he simply maintains a volume threshold between six and 10 shot attempts, he has a great chance to top the scoring NBA picks line of 10.5 points.
Tonight sees Portland face the Minnesota Timberwolves, a team that is contending for a playoff berth in the Western Conference. While Karl-Anthony Towns may be a star offensive player, his defense still leaves much to be desired. The Wolves rank in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency and have allowed opposing centers to shoot over 56% on the season. All of this bodes well for Eubanks going over the NBA player props total in tonight’s game.
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What a sad state of affairs the Los Angeles Lakers have become this season. Having lost seven of their last eight games, L.A. is certainly thanking its lucky stars that there doesn’t appear to be much serious competition for the play-in spots. Despite being a very tough watch, ESPN still insists on showing us Lakers basketball on ABC Saturday Primetime. In a matchup against the Golden State Warriors, one can only imagine that LeBron James will put forth an A+ effort and then some.
It is the above situational narrative is one of the driving forces behind looking over the NBA player props line of 8.5 for James tonight. On the season overall, James has averaged exactly 8.0 rebounds per game. While he has only eclipsed tonight’s NBA betting total four times in the last ten games, it is quite clear that there is a correlation between the opponent and/or stakes of a matchup and his performance on the glass.
Tonight actually marks the second Saturday Primetime game between the Lakers and Warriors in the past month. The first go-around saw James corral a whopping 15 rebounds while nearly posting a triple-double. His most recent double-digit rebounding effort came this past Tuesday in yet another nationally televised matchup against Dallas. One simply cannot deny this trend when choosing NBA picks today.