The last full week of the NBA regular season tips off tonight with a nine-game slate. While the intensity and anticipation continue to build ahead of the playoffs, the end of the regular season is bittersweet for those who have been making NBA betting picks throughout the year. Thus, bettors are encouraged to make the most of the final week and a half before the volume of games and available props declines. The following article offers three of the best NBA player prop bets for the March 28th slate.
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Best NBA Betting Player Props for Tonight, 3/28
Davion Mitchell Under 17.5 Points (-117)
As a result of starting Sacramento Kings point guard De’Aaron Fox being sidelined by an injury, rookie Davion Mitchell has seen a massive uptick in usage and scoring of late. The former Baylor standout comes into Monday night’s contest riding a streak of three straight games scoring 20 points or more. It’s certainly worth noting that it took him over 20 shots to accomplish this in two of those games. In the third, he shot an unsustainable 10-15 from the field.
Despite the fact that Mitchell has exceeded today’s NBA player props line of 17.5 points four times in the last five games, bettors should look to bet the under. Expecting Mitchell to take over 20 shots tonight is quite risky. Unless he achieves an excessively high shooting percentage, he is unlikely to clear an NBA betting line that sits nearly seven full points above his per-game average.
Another huge element to consider is the fact that the Kings face the Miami Heat tonight. On the season, the Heat rank fifth in defensive efficiency allowing only 106.1 points per 100 possessions. Thus, achieving that aforementioned shooting efficiency will be very difficult to do tonight. Miami also ranks 29th in Pace Factor. A slow tempo and a top-tier defense are two factors that will work heavily against Mitchell’s bid to go over his NBA props scoring total.
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Marcus Smart Over 14.5 Points (-113)
Coming into the day, Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart is averaging 11.9 points per game on the season. Furthermore, it has been a rough shooting stretch of late for the 28-year-old. Smart has failed to even crack double figures in each of his last four games played. Given these two facts, there had better be some pretty convincing rationale for betting Smart to go over the NBA picks line of 14.5 points this evening.
Bettors seeking such rationale are in luck. After all, this isn’t one of the top NBA player props on Monday’s slate for no reason. The crux of this NBA betting handicap is based on the fact that the Celtics will be extremely shorthanded for tonight’s game against the Toronto Raptors. Each of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford has already been ruled out for various reasons. Boston also got some awful news regarding center Robert Williams III, who was diagnosed with a torn meniscus and is now out indefinitely.
Add all the absences up and we have a scenario in which Smart will join Derrick White as the only two reliable scoring options that the hottest team in the Eastern Conference will have for tonight’s contest. Thus, a much greater volume of shot attempts is expected which correlates directly to betting over this NBA player props scoring total.
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Tyus Jones Over 2.5 Rebounds (-164)
On the surface, any NBA player props bet in which one is required to lay -154 odds may seem like a poor option. In this case, however, there is tremendous value in playing over 2.5 rebounds for Memphis Grizzlies point guard Tyus Jones. Of course, the key factor here is the fact that Jones is starting in place of injured superstar Ja Morant. Since stepping into the increased role, Jones has exceeded the NBA betting total in three of four games. This includes a pair of four-rebound efforts in each of the Grizzlies’ last two games.
Tonight will see Memphis face a fading Golden State Warriors team that is suddenly in danger of losing the 3-seed in the Western Conference. Despite the Warriors’ recent struggles, they are a top-five team in terms of Rebound Rate this season. Number one in that stat by a wide margin is none other than the Grizzlies. With a fast pace also expected in this matchup, Jones should have plenty of opportunities to assist the cause on the glass.
It’s also worth pointing out that Jones has averaged 2.4 boards per game on the full season, with much of that coming in a reserve role. Thus, the expanded minutes easily figure to be enough to make up the half-rebound needed to top the NBA player props line.