Tuesday night’s NBA slate features only four games in total. While the diminished volume can be viewed as a detriment to sports bettors, the light card also affords the opportunity to delve deeper into each matchup. When it comes to NBA betting picks, there is always value to be found in the player props market. The following article offers three of the best NBA player prop bets for the March 22nd slate.
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Best NBA Betting Player Props for Tonight, 3/22
Alec Burks Under 6.5 Rebounds (-134)
Compared to most shooting guards, Alec Burks has been a solid contributor on the glass for the New York Knicks. Since taking on additional minutes as a starter, Burks has provided consistent rebounding production. Over the last ten games, he has totaled five rebounds or more on nine occasions. With that being said, Burks has only managed to clear tonight’s lofty NBA player props total of 6.5 boards three times over that same span.
Undoubtedly, one of the reasons why Burks’ NBA betting prop total is set nearly two full boards above his per-game average of 4.8 is that the Knicks will be playing without big man Julius Randle tonight. This will lead to other players having to step up on the glass.
Even with this added wrinkle, Burks would need to eclipse his season rebounding average by 2.2 boards just to finish with the bare minimum needed to go over the NBA picks threshold. Considering that he has only exceeded the higher mark once in the last eight games, it would certainly be abnormal from a standard production standpoint for him to do so tonight. While the opposing Atlanta Hawks aren’t the best rebounding team in the NBA, but they certainly are not the worst.
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Bobby Portis Over 14.5 Points (-112)
With Khris Middleton ruled out and Giannis Antetokounmpo also banged up, the Milwaukee Bucks will be in need of other players to contribute offensively in tonight’s contest. Although Bobby Portis has been mired in a scoring slump of late, there is reason to believe he can clear tonight’s NBA picks total of 14.5 points.
One of the key components to Portis falling short of the NBA player props line in each of the last four contests is his failure to cash in from beyond the arc. A 40% three-point shooter on the season, the 27-year-old has shot just 1-15 from downtown over the last four outings combined. It doesn’t take a math major to know that this percentage comes in well below Portis’ average.
Assuming natural positive regression takes place tonight, Portis should be able to eclipse the NBA betting prop total. After all, the line comes in over half a point below the 15.1 that he has averaged per game over the course of the full season. The fact that this matchup comes against the Chicago Bulls also bodes well for over bettors. In addition to ranking 20th in the league in defensive efficiency, Chicago has allowed opponents to connect on 36.3% of three-point attempts. That marks the sixth-best conversion rate allowed by any defense this season.
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DeMarcus Counsins Under 9.5 Points (-107)
After making the case for positive regression with our Bobby Portis props pick above, we are now set to do the exact opposite for Denver Nuggets center, DeMarcus Cousins. The veteran has only seen more than 17 minutes of game action once since joining the Nuggets. Despite this, Cousins has managed to score in double figures in each of the last three games. In addition to a sharp rise in sho attempts, he managed to hit four three-pointers over the three games combined to finish with 14, 12 and 12 points, respectively.
When it comes to NBA player props for scoring, more often than not, the best approach is to bet under when the opponent is the Los Angeles Clippers. Thanks to strong defensive play, the Clips continue to be competitive despite their rash of injuries. L.A. ranks ninth in defensive efficiency allowing only 107.2 points per 100 possessions. Add in the fact that neither Denver nor Los Angeles plays at a particularly fast pace and possessions could be limited tonight as well.
Of course, the other primary factor affecting Cousins’ ability to exceed the NBA betting picks total is his playing time allotment. Expecting 10+ points in only 15 minutes of action is a tough ask. Furthermore, the Nuggets have listed JaMychal Green as probably to play tonight after he exited Sunday’s game with a hip contusion. This would also impact the number of available minutes to go around in the frontcourt.