With the preseason now underway, everyone can’t wait to get a look at their favorite players throughout the league. Betting player props can be hard because you have to bet with your head, not your heart. Everyone wants “their” guy to be good, so most public money goes on the overs. Vegas knows this and usually compensates accordingly.
This is part two of the series on season long bets. If you missed it, part one can be found here. Let’s take a look at some of the best player prop bets I think will cash by seasons end.
#1–Mike Evans (5 TDs)
Evans exploded as a rookie in 2014 to the tune of 12 touchdowns. Then, he followed it up with a putrid three touchdown performance in 2015, back up to 12 again in 2016, and finally back down to earth again with only five in 2017. So, what could Evans have in store for his 2018 season? Well, common sense would say he’s due for another 12 TD season, as that seems to be the pattern. While a 12 touchdowns is possible, I see him finally settling into the 8-10 TD per season player he should be. Evans is one of the NFL’s premier red zone targets, which leads me to take the OVER.
#2–Jimmy Garoppolo (4,399 ½ yards)
Garoppolo was traded during the season last year to the 49ers. Upon learning enough of the playbook, he ended up starting the last five games of the year. During those five games, he averaged 308 yards/game, which posted over a full season would be 4,928 yards. The easy answer here would be the over then, right? I’m not so sure. Upon further review of those five games, he only faced one team that actually had something to play for. In short, he carved up either terrible teams or teams that were resting starters for the playoffs. Only three people last year threw for 4,400+ yards in the entire league. I’m not ready to put money on a guy that has seven career starts to join that elite company with an average supporting cast, at best. Take the UNDER.
#3–Keenan Allen (6 ½ TDs)
In his first year back from a horrible ACL injury, Allen had the best year of his career. He tore apart the NFL with 102 catches for 1,393 yards, and 6 TDs. Allen has never been a high touchdown guy, as he’s only posted one season of over six in his five-year career. However, with Hunter Henry going down for the season, I see more red zone opportunities coming his way. Mike Williams should improve in his second year and is considered a high-end red zone target because of his height. I think this is a good thing for Allen though. Williams should help not only open things up in the red zone, but also in-between the 20’s. Philip Rivers is going to throw somewhere around 30 scores this year, and I just don’t see anyway Allen doesn’t get at least seven of those. Take the OVER.
#4–Alvin Kamara (12 ½ TDs)
Kamara came out of nowhere as a rookie to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The former Tennessee Volunteer went off for a total of 14 touchdowns in his rookie campaign, while amassing over 1,500 total yards. While Kamara was very impressive last year, I see that as his ceiling, not the new normal. Mark Ingram is going to miss the first four games of the year, but is still going to be a major part of the offense going forward. Even assuming perfect health again, asking someone to repeat a 13-14 touchdown campaign in the NFL just screams regression to me. He will have a good year and I can see him notching around 10-11 total TDs. The play here is the UNDER.
Well there you have it. The regular season is right around the corner, so get your research done now and let’s make some money this season! Don’t waste any time and get signed up for MyBookie now here, and use the promo code FlurrySports!