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Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Trends, Starting Pitchers and Betting Odds for MLB Playoffs ALCS Game 4

The American League Championship Series continues Tuesday night with Game 4 between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox. Fenway Park has been extremely kind to the home tenants thus far in the MLB Playoffs. This includes a blowout win in Game 3 of this ALCS last night. Boston is now 4-0 at home in the 2021 postseason. The MLB betting odds favor them to make it five straight ahead of tonight’s contest. With this being the fourth of a best-of-seven series, we also have an interesting Astros vs Red Sox starting pitchers matchup.

This MLB betting preview for Astros vs Red Sox ALCS Game 4 includes game info, projected starting pitchers, betting odds, trends and a prediction for tonight’s postseason matchup.

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview and Prediction | MLB Playoffs Game 4

ALCS Game 4 (BOS leads series 2-1)
Houston Astros (95-67, 44-37 Away) vs. Boston Red Sox (92-70, 49-32 Home)
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2021
Time: 8:07 p.m. EST
Venue: Fenway Park — Boston, MA
Coverage: FS1

Astros vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers

Astros: Zack Greinke (11-6, 4.16 ERA)
Red Sox: Nick Pivetta (9-8, 4.53 ERA)

Houston Astros Preview

After back-to-back blowout losses, the Astros are undoubtedly itching to get this ALCS turned around in Game 4 tonight. They have fallen victim to the home run ball early in each of the last two games. While Houston can never be counted out of a game completely given that they had the top-scoring offense in all of baseball this season, some hills are just too steep to climb. Kyle tucker continued his strong start to this series by driving in all three of the Astros’ runs in Game 3 on a 4th-inning homer. Unfortunately, the rest of the lineup struggled to produce. Houston had just five total hits on Monday, two of which came via the bat of Yuli Gurriel.

With Lance McCullers Jr. being left off the ALCS roster due to injury, it was clear to many MLB betting analysts coming in that the Astros were in a tough spot as far as pitching depth. The starters have largely let Dusty Baker down in the first three games. He is now forced to turn to veteran Zack Greinke to start tonight’s critical Game 4. This marks the first start of these playoffs for the 37-year-old. Of course, he has no shortage of prior postseason experience. Greinke may not be the pitcher he once was, but he still won 11 games and posted a respectable 1.17 WHIP over the course of the season. He did get roughed up in his lone regular-season start against the Red Sox, however. Greinke allowed four runs on seven hits while lasting just three innings in that outing back in June.

Boston Red Sox Preview

For the second straight game, the Red Sox used the long ball to get out to an early lead. While slugging home runs in one thing, Boston has made the most of their clouts. Kyle Schwarber crushed a 2nd-inning grand slam on Monday night, the third four-RBI homer for the Red Sox in this ALCS. The six-run frame was followed by a three-spot in the 3rd and Boston was in cruise control for the rest of Game 3. After each hit grand slams in Game 2 back in Houston, J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers both went deep for their second homers of this MLB betting series. Christian Arroyo also put one out for the Sox. Martinez was joined by Christian Vazquez and the red-hot Kike Hernandez with two hits on the night.

Given the rate at which the Red Sox offense is scoring runs, one could argue that average pitching will be more than enough to power this team into the World Series. They got that and then some on Monday from starter Eduardo Rodriguez, who fanned seven over six innings. Manager Alex Cora will turn to right-hander Nick Pivetta as his Game 4 starter. While a 4.53 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the season aren’t great numbers, Pivetta came up huge for Boston in the ALDS. He was called upon to shut down the Tampa Bay Rays in extra innings during Game 3 and delivered. Pivetta held the Rays scoreless from the 10th-13th innings, allowing just three hits and striking out seven. 

Kyle Schwarber MLB betting trends Astros vs Red Sox prediction starting pitchers
Credit: Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

Astros vs Red Sox MLB Betting Odds

MLB betting odds for Astros vs Red Sox are taken from BetMGM Sportsbook.

Moneyline: HOU: (+105) | BOS: (-125)
Run Line:
HOU: +1.5 (-165) | BOS: -1.5 (+140)
Total:
10 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting
via Action Network: HOU: (39%) | BOS: (61%)

Astros vs Red Sox MLB Betting Trends

  • Each of the Astros’ last six games has gone over the total.
  • Astros are just 1-6 SU in their last seven road games.
  • Each of the Red Sox’ last six games has gone over the total.
  • Red Sox are 10-3 SU in their last 13 home games.
  • The last five Astros vs Red Sox head-to-head matchups have all gone over the total.

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 Astros vs Red Sox Stats

  • Houston is averaging 5.37 RPG this season (No. 1 in the MLB).
  • Houston is surrendering 4.15 RPG this season (No. 11 in the MLB).
  • Boston is averaging 5.21 runs per game (RPG) this season (No. 4 in the MLB).
  • Boston is surrendering 4.61 RPG this season (No. 17 in the MLB).

Astros vs Red Sox Weather Report

Status: Clear
Temperature: 57℉
Precipitation: 3%
Humidity: 57%
Wind: 9 MPH (blowing out to right)

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction

The Astros vs Red Sox MLB betting prediction uses NumberFire’s probability model. They give Boston a 52.9% chance to win Game 4 of this ALCS matchup.


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