FlurrySports gives picks and NASCAR betting odds for the All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway.
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The NASCAR All-Star Race is coming to Dover Motor Speedway for the first time ever this Sunday, and with it comes a $1 million prize for the winner. The format undergone significant changes for this year’s event, including an overhaul to qualifying and the exclusion of the All-Star Open. Bettors will want to make sure they are locked in on the details before investing their hard-earned money.
As for the venue, Dover has long been a mainstay on the Cup Series schedule. While it is only one mile in length, it races very much like a 1.5-mile speedway with high speeds and banking. The fact that the racing surface is entirely concrete draws parallels to Bristol Motor Speedway. Driver skills and handling setup are essential in order to maintain speed through the corners.
Below, we break down the NASCAR betting odds to win the All-Star Race — including our picks from favorites to long shots worth a closer look.
NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway
NASCAR All-Star Race
Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Start Time: 1 p.m. EST
Coverage: FS1
Distance: 350 miles (350 laps)
Segments: Three (75 laps, 75 laps, 200 laps)
Pole Sitter: TBD
Defending Champion: Christopher Bell
NASCAR Betting Odds to Win | All-Star Race
One of the first things that jumps out when examining the betting odds this week is the strong focus on Dover-specific track stats. Denny Hamlin has won at Dover each of the last two years and is priced as a strong favorite to do so again in the NASCAR All-Star Race.
Behind him on the betting board are a pair of Hendrick Motorsports drivers. While the entire HMS organization is coming off a weekend to forget at Watkins Glen, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott have both been among the best at Dover going back several years. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney is the fourth choice and is by far the shortest shot from the Ford camp.
From a handicapping standpoint, one of the most important things to keep in mind this weekend is that not every driver listed on the odds board is guaranteed a spot in the final 200-lap main feature where the race is actually won. Drivers must either be a race winner from the 2025 or 2026 seasons, a former Cup Series champion competing full-time, earn the fan vote, or qualify through their combined segment results.
A driver like Alex Bowman presents a useful example. His Dover stats over the years are very strong. However, he is not locked into the main feature. Will he ultimately be in the field of 26 drivers that race for the money on Sunday? Probably. Is that a guarantee? Absolutely not. Thus, until he punches his ticket, it’s tough to get excited about his 11-1 price point.
The table below lists the latest pre-qualifying odds for the full field.
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NASCAR betting odds for the All-Star Race are taken from BetUS Sportsbook.
| Driver | Odds to Win | All-Star Race | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +400 | Connor Zilisch | +6000 |
| Kyle Larson | +550 | Shane van Gisbergen | +6500 |
| Chase Elliott | +700 | Austin Cindric | +6500 |
| Ryan Blaney | +850 | Josh Berry | +7000 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 | Austin Dillon | +10000 |
| Alex Bowman | +1100 | Noah Gragson | +15000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1200 | Michael McDowell | +20000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1300 | Erik Jones | +20000 |
| William Byron | +1600 | Daniel Suarez | +20000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1600 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +25000 |
| Joey Logano | +2200 | John Hunter Nemechek | +25000 |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 | AJ Allmendinger | +30000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +2500 | Zane Smith | +40000 |
| Ross Chastain | +2800 | Riley Herbst | +45000 |
| Kyle Busch | +2800 | Todd Gilliland | +50000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +3500 | Cole Custer | +50000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +4000 | Ty Dillon | +100000 |
| Ryan Preece | +5500 | Cody Ware | +100000 |
NASCAR Betting Picks and Predictions: Who Will Win the All-Star Race Dover Motor Speedway?
Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+400)
If you are going to back anyone at the top of the board, it has to be Denny Hamlin. The +400 price implies a 20% chance of him winning the NASCAR All-Star Race. When one digs into his history at Dover, that feels like right about where he should be.
Hamlin has won the 400-mile points race here in each of the last two years and has rattled off three consecutive top-five finishes at the Monster Mile. He has three wins in the last seven Dover races dating back to 2020.
What’s more, in eight starts since the fall of 2019, Hamlin has posted an average driver rating north of 100 six times. In four of those races, including each of the last two, saw him finish over 125 in that metric. Simply put, that’s utterly ridiculous.
For an exhibition race, that kind of track-specific dominance is exactly what you want to see from a race favorite. The format for this year’s All-Star Race theoretically only serves to benefit a favorite of Hamlin’s caliber. The No. 11 car will only have to battle 25 other drivers for the race win as opposed to a full field.
Value Pick: Chase Elliott (+700)
When it comes to consistency at Dover Motor Speedway, Chase Elliott is right up there at the top of the list. What’s perhaps most remarkable about it is his strong performances can be traced all the way back to the start of his Cup Series career.
Elliott is a two-time winner at the Delaware track, including a victory in the Next Gen era in 2022. Concerning recent results, he has finished sixth or better in four of his last five starts here — with his worst result in that stretch being an 11th-place finish.
For his career overall, ten top-five finishes in 15 total starts speaks for itself. Perhaps most telling is what the underlying numbers looked like in last year’s race. Elliott finished sixth but led 238 laps and posted an absurd average driver rating of 134.8.
The speed for the No. 9 car is clearly there at Dover. Meanwhile, the +700 odds imply a 12.5% chance of winning against a reduced field. There’s an argument to be made that he should be priced closer to Hamlin. Hendrick Motorsports has taken its fair share of performance-based criticism in 2026, but Elliott has largely been unaffected.
Long Shot Hopeful: Chase Briscoe (+1600)
For those looking to take a shot at a bigger number, Chase Briscoe is the most compelling option on the board. His time at Stewart-Haas Racing was largely forgettable at Dover, but his Joe Gibbs Racing debut at the track last year told a different story — Briscoe finished second and looked every bit like a driver who had found a new gear with a new organization.
The No. 19 team has had a roller coaster 2026 season to date, but their pure speed has been undeniable at various points. Briscoe is also already locked into the main feature by virtue of his wins last season, so there is no sweating out the qualifying segments with him.
Perhaps most importantly, he is driving a Toyota — by far the dominant manufacturer in 2026. Briscoe also represents the longest shot on the NASCAR betting board that is piloting a JGR car. At 16-1, that is a number worth a look.
